William Xu

William Xu, Amir Eskanlou, Mansur Arief et al.

The global capacity for mineral processing must expand rapidly to meet the demand for critical minerals, which are essential for building the clean energy technologies necessary to mitigate climate change. However, the efficiency of mineral processing is severely limited by uncertainty, which arises from both the variability of feedstock and the complexity of process dynamics. To optimize mineral processing circuits under uncertainty, we introduce an AI-driven approach that formulates mineral processing as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). We demonstrate the capabilities of this approach in handling both feedstock uncertainty and process model uncertainty to optimize the operation of a simulated, simplified flotation cell as an example. We show that by integrating the process of information gathering (i.e., uncertainty reduction) and process optimization, this approach has the potential to consistently perform better than traditional approaches at maximizing an overall objective, such as net present value (NPV). Our methodological demonstration of this optimization-under-uncertainty approach for a synthetic case provides a mathematical and computational framework for later real-world application, with the potential to improve both the laboratory-scale design of experiments and industrial-scale operation of mineral processing circuits without any additional hardware.

William Xu, Yiwei Lu, Yihan Wang et al.

Targeted data poisoning attacks pose an increasingly serious threat due to their ease of deployment and high success rates. These attacks aim to manipulate the prediction for a single test sample in classification models. Unlike indiscriminate attacks that aim to decrease overall test performance, targeted attacks present a unique threat to individual test instances. This threat model raises a fundamental question: what factors make certain test samples more susceptible to successful poisoning than others? We investigate how attack difficulty varies across different test instances and identify key characteristics that influence vulnerability. This paper introduces three predictive criteria for targeted data poisoning difficulty: ergodic prediction accuracy (analyzed through clean training dynamics), poison distance, and poison budget. Our experimental results demonstrate that these metrics effectively predict the varying difficulty of real-world targeted poisoning attacks across diverse scenarios, offering practitioners valuable insights for vulnerability assessment and understanding data poisoning attacks.

Mansur Arief, Yasmine Alonso, CJ Oshiro et al.

The world is entering an unprecedented period of critical mineral demand, driven by the global transition to renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles. This transition presents unique challenges in mineral resource development, particularly due to geological uncertainty-a key characteristic that traditional supply chain optimization approaches do not adequately address. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel application of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) that optimizes critical mineral sourcing decisions while explicitly accounting for the dynamic nature of geological uncertainty. Through a case study of the U.S. lithium supply chain, we demonstrate that POMDP-based policies achieve superior outcomes compared to traditional approaches, especially when initial reserve estimates are imperfect. Our framework provides quantitative insights for balancing domestic resource development with international supply diversification, offering policymakers a systematic approach to strategic decision-making in critical mineral supply chains.