Amnon Balanov

Amnon Balanov, Tamir Bendory, Dan Edidin

We study estimation in the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime for a broad class of Gaussian latent-variable models, including Gaussian mixtures and orbit recovery problems. We show that, in this regime, the generalized method-of-moments (GMoM) matches the first-order asymptotic efficiency of maximum likelihood. In particular, if the moment features are chosen up to the minimal local order required for identification and are weighted optimally, then the resulting GMoM estimator has the same leading asymptotic covariance as the maximum-likelihood estimator. Our analysis shows that, in low SNR, this equivalence is governed by a layered local geometry: different directions become informative at different moment orders, partitioning the space into layers with distinct SNR scalings. We prove that the observed Fisher information and the GMoM information operator admit matching layerwise expansions across these layers. As a consequence, in the low-SNR regime, GMoM provides a statistically efficient alternative to maximum likelihood, while preserving the computational advantages of moment-based estimation.

Amnon Balanov, Josh Katz, Tamir Bendory et al.

Motivated by structural biology applications, we study the projected multi-reference alignment (MRA) model, in which an unknown signal is observed through noisy samples, each generated by applying a random cyclic shift followed by a fixed projection. The projection merges reflection-symmetric index pairs, thereby discarding orientation information. The goal is to recover the dihedral orbit of the signal. We prove that in the high-noise regime, the first three moments of the projected observations determine a generic dihedral orbit. The main mechanism is a reduction, at the moment level, from projected MRA to the reflection-invariant phase-coupling structure of dihedral MRA. In Fourier-cosine coordinates adapted to the projection, the first moment determines the mean component, the second moment determines the Fourier magnitudes, and selected third moments yield the cosine phase-coupling relations appearing in the dihedral bispectrum. These relations lead to a constructive recovery scheme from moments up to order three. We complement the population theory with finite-sample experiments comparing expectation--maximization (EM), direct moment optimization, and direct Fourier-cosine moment optimization. The results show that, in the high-noise regime, both EM and direct moment optimization are consistent with the predicted third-moment sample-complexity scaling $n \gtrsim σ^6$, where $n$ is the number of observations and $σ^2$ is the noise variance.

Kweku Abraham, Amnon Balanov, Tamir Bendory et al.

Motivated by single-particle cryo-electron microscopy, we study the sample complexity of the multi-target detection (MTD) problem, in which an unknown signal appears multiple times at unknown locations within a long, noisy observation. We propose a patching scheme that reduces MTD to a non-i.i.d. multi-reference alignment (MRA) model. In the one-dimensional setting, the latent group elements form a Markov chain, and we show that the convergence rate of any estimator matches that of the corresponding i.i.d. MRA model, up to a logarithmic factor in the number of patches. Moreover, for estimators based on empirical averaging, such as the method of moments, the convergence rates are identical in both settings. We further establish an analogous result in two dimensions, where the latent structure arises from an exponentially mixing random field generated by a hard-core placement model. As a consequence, if the signal in the corresponding i.i.d. MRA model is determined by moments up to order $n_{\min}$, then in the low-SNR regime the number of patches required to estimate the signal in the MTD model scales as $σ^{2n_{\min}}$, where $σ^2$ denotes the noise variance.

Roy R. Lederman, David Silva-Sánchez, Ziling Chen et al.

Lloyd's k-means algorithm is one of the most widely used clustering methods. We prove that in high-dimensional, high-noise settings, the algorithm exhibits catastrophic failure: with high probability, essentially every partition of the data is a fixed point. Consequently, Lloyd's algorithm simply returns its initial partition - even when the underlying clusters are trivially recoverable by other methods. In contrast, we prove that Hartigan's k-means algorithm does not exhibit this pathology. Our results show the stark difference between these algorithms and offer a theoretical explanation for the empirical difficulties often observed with k-means in high dimensions.

Amnon Balanov, Tamir Bendory, Wasim Huleihel

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational data do not support them. This issue is especially critical in scientific fields involving highly noisy observations, such as cryo-electron microscopy. This study investigates confirmation bias in Gaussian mixture models. We consider the following experiment: A team of scientists assumes they are analyzing data drawn from a Gaussian mixture model with known signals (hypotheses) as centroids. However, in reality, the observations consist entirely of noise without any informative structure. The researchers use a single iteration of the K-means or expectation-maximization algorithms, two popular algorithms to estimate the centroids. Despite the observations being pure noise, we show that these algorithms yield biased estimates that resemble the initial hypotheses, contradicting the unbiased expectation that averaging these noise observations would converge to zero. Namely, the algorithms generate estimates that mirror the postulated model, although the hypotheses (the presumed centroids of the Gaussian mixture) are not evident in the observations. Specifically, among other results, we prove a positive correlation between the estimates produced by the algorithms and the corresponding hypotheses. We also derive explicit closed-form expressions of the estimates for a finite and infinite number of hypotheses. This study underscores the risks of confirmation bias in low signal-to-noise environments, provides insights into potential pitfalls in scientific methodologies, and highlights the importance of prudent data interpretation.

Amnon Balanov, Tamir Bendory, Dan Edidin

Let $f:\mathbb{R}^n\to\mathbb{R}$ be an unknown object, and suppose the observations are tomographic projections of randomly rotated copies of $f$ of the form $Y = P(R\cdot f)$, where $R$ is Haar-uniform in $\mathrm{SO}(n)$ and $P$ is the projection onto an $m$-dimensional subspace, so that $Y:\mathbb{R}^m\to\mathbb{R}$. We prove that, whenever $d\le m$, the $d$-th order moment of the projected data determines the full $d$-th order Haar-orbit moment of $f$, independently of the ambient dimension $n$. We further provide an explicit algorithmic procedure for recovering the latter from the former. As a consequence, any identifiability result for the unprojected model based on $d$-th order group-invariant moment extends directly to the tomographic setting at the same moment order. In particular, for $n=3$, $m=2$, and $d=2$, our result recovers a classical result in the cryo-EM literature: the covariance of the 2D projection images determines the second order rotationally invariant moment of the underlying 3D object.