Mert Ketenci

Mert Ketenci, Shreyas Bhave, Noémie Elhadad et al.

Survival analysis is a widely-used technique for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of censoring. In recent years, numerous survival analysis methods have emerged which scale to large datasets and relax traditional assumptions such as proportional hazards. These models, while being performant, are very sensitive to model hyperparameters including: (1) number of bins and bin size for discrete models and (2) number of cluster assignments for mixture-based models. Each of these choices requires extensive tuning by practitioners to achieve optimal performance. In addition, we demonstrate in empirical studies that: (1) optimal bin size may drastically differ based on the metric of interest (e.g., concordance vs brier score), and (2) mixture models may suffer from mode collapse and numerical instability. We propose a survival analysis approach which eliminates the need to tune hyperparameters such as mixture assignments and bin sizes, reducing the burden on practitioners. We show that the proposed approach matches or outperforms baselines on several real-world datasets.

Mert Ketenci, Adler Perotte, Noémie Elhadad et al.

We introduce a novel stochastic variational inference method for Gaussian process ($\mathcal{GP}$) regression, by deriving a posterior over a learnable set of coresets: i.e., over pseudo-input/output, weighted pairs. Unlike former free-form variational families for stochastic inference, our coreset-based variational $\mathcal{GP}$ (CVGP) is defined in terms of the $\mathcal{GP}$ prior and the (weighted) data likelihood. This formulation naturally incorporates inductive biases of the prior, and ensures its kernel and likelihood dependencies are shared with the posterior. We derive a variational lower-bound on the log-marginal likelihood by marginalizing over the latent $\mathcal{GP}$ coreset variables, and show that CVGP's lower-bound is amenable to stochastic optimization. CVGP reduces the dimensionality of the variational parameter search space to linear $\mathcal{O}(M)$ complexity, while ensuring numerical stability at $\mathcal{O}(M^3)$ time complexity and $\mathcal{O}(M^2)$ space complexity.

Mert Ketenci, Vincent Jeanselme, Harry Reyes Nieva et al.

Survival analysis is a fundamental tool for modeling time-to-event outcomes in healthcare. Recent advances have introduced flexible neural network approaches for improved predictive performance. However, most of these models do not provide interpretable insights into the association between exposures and the modeled outcomes, a critical requirement for decision-making in clinical practice. To address this limitation, we propose Additive Deep Hazard Analysis Mixtures (ADHAM), an interpretable additive survival model. ADHAM assumes a conditional latent structure that defines subgroups, each characterized by a combination of covariate-specific hazard functions. To select the number of subgroups, we introduce a post-training refinement that reduces the number of equivalent latent subgroups by merging similar groups. We perform comprehensive studies to demonstrate ADHAM's interpretability at the population, subgroup, and individual levels. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that ADHAM provides novel insights into the association between exposures and outcomes. Further, ADHAM remains on par with existing state-of-the-art survival baselines in terms of predictive performance, offering a scalable and interpretable approach to time-to-event prediction in healthcare.

Mert Ketenci, Iñigo Urteaga, Victor Alfonso Rodriguez et al.

We propose probabilistic Shapley inference (PSI), a novel probabilistic framework to model and infer sufficient statistics of feature attributions in flexible predictive models, via latent random variables whose mean recovers Shapley values. PSI enables efficient, scalable inference over input-to-output attributions, and their uncertainty, via a variational objective that jointly trains a predictive (regression or classification) model and its attribution distributions. To address the challenge of marginalizing over variable-length input feature subsets in Shapley value calculation, we introduce a masking-based neural network architecture, with a modular training and inference procedure. We evaluate PSI on synthetic and real-world datasets, showing that it achieves competitive predictive performance compared to strong baselines, while learning feature attribution distributions -- centered at Shapley values -- that reveal meaningful attribution uncertainty across data modalities.

Griffin Adams, Emily Alsentzer, Mert Ketenci et al.

Summarization of clinical narratives is a long-standing research problem. Here, we introduce the task of hospital-course summarization. Given the documentation authored throughout a patient's hospitalization, generate a paragraph that tells the story of the patient admission. We construct an English, text-to-text dataset of 109,000 hospitalizations (2M source notes) and their corresponding summary proxy: the clinician-authored "Brief Hospital Course" paragraph written as part of a discharge note. Exploratory analyses reveal that the BHC paragraphs are highly abstractive with some long extracted fragments; are concise yet comprehensive; differ in style and content organization from the source notes; exhibit minimal lexical cohesion; and represent silver-standard references. Our analysis identifies multiple implications for modeling this complex, multi-document summarization task.

Griffin Adams, Mert Ketenci, Shreyas Bhave et al.

We introduce Latent Meaning Cells, a deep latent variable model which learns contextualized representations of words by combining local lexical context and metadata. Metadata can refer to granular context, such as section type, or to more global context, such as unique document ids. Reliance on metadata for contextualized representation learning is apropos in the clinical domain where text is semi-structured and expresses high variation in topics. We evaluate the LMC model on the task of zero-shot clinical acronym expansion across three datasets. The LMC significantly outperforms a diverse set of baselines at a fraction of the pre-training cost and learns clinically coherent representations. We demonstrate that not only is metadata itself very helpful for the task, but that the LMC inference algorithm provides an additional large benefit.