Zhanhong Cheng

Xinyu Chen, Zhanhong Cheng, HanQin Cai et al.

Spatiotemporal traffic data imputation is of great significance in intelligent transportation systems and data-driven decision-making processes. To perform efficient learning and accurate reconstruction from partially observed traffic data, we assert the importance of characterizing both global and local trends in time series. In the literature, substantial works have demonstrated the effectiveness of utilizing the low-rank property of traffic data by matrix/tensor completion models. In this study, we first introduce a Laplacian kernel to temporal regularization for characterizing local trends in traffic time series, which can be formulated as a circular convolution. Then, we develop a low-rank Laplacian convolutional representation (LCR) model by putting the circulant matrix nuclear norm and the Laplacian kernelized temporal regularization together, which is proved to meet a unified framework that has a fast Fourier transform (FFT) solution in log-linear time complexity. Through extensive experiments on several traffic datasets, we demonstrate the superiority of LCR over several baseline models for imputing traffic time series of various time series behaviors (e.g., data noises and strong/weak periodicity) and reconstructing sparse speed fields of vehicular traffic flow. The proposed LCR model is also an efficient solution to large-scale traffic data imputation over the existing imputation models.

Fan Wu, Zhanhong Cheng, Huiyu Chen et al.

Accurately monitoring road traffic state is crucial for various applications, including travel time prediction, traffic control, and traffic safety. However, the lack of sensors often results in incomplete traffic state data, making it challenging to obtain reliable information for decision-making. This paper proposes a novel method for imputing traffic state data using Gaussian processes (GP) to address this issue. We propose a kernel rotation re-parametrization scheme that transforms a standard isotropic GP kernel into an anisotropic kernel, which can better model the congestion propagation in traffic flow data. The model parameters can be estimated by statistical inference using data from sparse probe vehicles or loop detectors. Moreover, the rotated GP method provides statistical uncertainty quantification for the imputed traffic state, making it more reliable. We also extend our approach to a multi-output GP, which allows for simultaneously estimating the traffic state for multiple lanes. We evaluate our method using real-world traffic data from the Next Generation simulation (NGSIM) and HighD programs, along with simulated data representing a traffic bottleneck scenario. Considering current and future mixed traffic of connected vehicles (CVs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs), we experiment with the traffic state estimation (TSE) scheme from 5% to 50% available trajectories, mimicking different CV penetration rates in a mixed traffic environment. We also test the traffic state estimation when traffic flow information is obtained from loop detectors. The results demonstrate the adaptability of our TSE method across different CV penetration rates and types of detectors, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy in scenarios with sparse observation rates.

Zhanhong Cheng, Lingqian Hu, Yuheng Bu et al.

Researchers have adopted deep learning for classical discrete choice analysis as it can capture complex feature relationships and achieve higher predictive performance. However, the existing deep learning approaches cannot explicitly capture the relationship among choice alternatives, which has been a long-lasting focus in classical discrete choice models. To address the gap, this paper introduces Graph Neural Network (GNN) as a novel framework to analyze residential location choice. The GNN-based discrete choice models (GNN-DCMs) offer a structured approach for neural networks to capture dependence among spatial alternatives, while maintaining clear connections to classical random utility theory. Theoretically, we demonstrate that the GNN-DCMs incorporate the nested logit (NL) model and the spatially correlated logit (SCL) model as two specific cases, yielding novel algorithmic interpretation through message passing among alternatives' utilities. Empirically, the GNN-DCMs outperform benchmark MNL, SCL, and feedforward neural networks in predicting residential location choices among Chicago's 77 community areas. Regarding model interpretation, the GNN-DCMs can capture individual heterogeneity and exhibit spatially-aware substitution patterns. Overall, these results highlight the potential of GNN-DCMs as a unified and expressive framework for synergizing discrete choice modeling and deep learning in the complex spatial choice contexts.

Yuqi Zhou, Zhanhong Cheng, Lingqian Hu et al.

Nested logit (NL) has been commonly used for discrete choice analysis, including a wide range of applications such as travel mode choice, automobile ownership, or location decisions. However, the classical NL models are restricted by their limited representation capability and handcrafted utility specification. While researchers introduced deep neural networks (DNNs) to tackle such challenges, the existing DNNs cannot explicitly capture inter-alternative correlations in the discrete choice context. To address the challenges, this study proposes a novel concept - alternative graph - to represent the relationships among travel mode alternatives. Using a nested alternative graph, this study further designs a nested-utility graph neural network (NestGNN) as a generalization of the classical NL model in the neural network family. Theoretically, NestGNNs generalize the classical NL models and existing DNNs in terms of model representation, while retaining the crucial two-layer substitution patterns of the NL models: proportional substitution within a nest but non-proportional substitution beyond a nest. Empirically, we find that the NestGNNs significantly outperform the benchmark models, particularly the corresponding NL models by 9.2\%. As shown by elasticity tables and substitution visualization, NestGNNs retain the two-layer substitution patterns as the NL model, and yet presents more flexibility in its model design space. Overall, our study demonstrates the power of NestGNN in prediction, interpretation, and its flexibility of generalizing the classical NL model for analyzing travel mode choice.

Yuankai Wu, Zhanhong Cheng, Lijun Sun

Individual mobility prediction is an essential task for transportation demand management and traffic system operation. There exist a large body of works on modeling location sequence and predicting the next location of users; however, little attention is paid to the prediction of the next trip, which is governed by the strong spatiotemporal dependencies between diverse attributes, including trip start time $t$, origin $o$, and destination $d$. To fill this gap, in this paper we propose a novel point process-based model -- Attentive Marked temporal point processes (AMTPP) -- to model human mobility and predict the whole trip $(t,o,d)$ in a joint manner. To encode the influence of history trips, AMTPP employs the self-attention mechanism with a carefully designed positional embedding to capture the daily/weekly periodicity and regularity in individual travel behavior. Given the unique peaked nature of inter-event time in human behavior, we use an asymmetric log-Laplace mixture distribution to precisely model the distribution of trip start time $t$. Furthermore, an origin-destination (OD) matrix learning block is developed to model the relationship between every origin and destination pair. Experimental results on two large metro trip datasets demonstrate the superior performance of AMTPP.