Anatoly A. Krasnovsky

Anatoly A. Krasnovsky

While distributed tracing and chaos engineering are becoming standard for microservices, resilience models remain largely manual and bespoke. We revisit a trace-discovered connectivity model that derives a service dependency graph from traces and uses Monte Carlo simulation to estimate endpoint availability under fail-stop service failures. Compared to earlier work, we (i) derive the graph directly from raw OpenTelemetry traces, (ii) attach endpoint-specific success predicates, and (iii) add a simple asynchronous semantics that treats Kafka edges as non-blocking for immediate HTTP success. We apply this model to the OpenTelemetry Demo ("Astronomy Shop") using a GitHub Actions workflow that discovers the graph, runs simulations, and executes chaos experiments that randomly kill microservices in a Docker Compose deployment. Across the studied failure fractions, the model reproduces the overall availability degradation curve, while asynchronous semantics for Kafka edges change predicted availabilities by at most about 10^(-5) (0.001 percentage points). This null result suggests that for immediate HTTP availability in this case study, explicitly modeling asynchronous dependencies is not warranted, and a simpler connectivity-only model is sufficient.

Anatoly A. Krasnovsky

Mechanistic interpretability has identified functional subgraphs within large language models (LLMs), known as Transformer Circuits (TCs), that appear to implement specific algorithms. Yet we lack a formal, single-pass way to quantify when an active circuit is behaving coherently and thus likely trustworthy. Building on prior systems-theoretic proposals, we specialize a sheaf/cohomology and causal emergence perspective to TCs and introduce the Effective-Information Consistency Score (EICS). EICS combines (i) a normalized sheaf inconsistency computed from local Jacobians and activations, with (ii) a Gaussian EI proxy for circuit-level causal emergence derived from the same forward state. The construction is white-box, single-pass, and makes units explicit so that the score is dimensionless. We further provide practical guidance on score interpretation, computational overhead (with fast and exact modes), and a toy sanity-check analysis. Empirical validation on LLM tasks is deferred.