Nori Nakata

Pu Ren, Rie Nakata, Maxime Lacour et al.

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose a novel artificial intelligence (AI) simulator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM), to synthesize high-frequency and spatially continuous earthquake ground motion waveforms. CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, learning complex wave physics and Earth heterogeneities, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that captures latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. CGM-GM demonstrates a strong potential for outperforming a state-of-the-art non-ergodic empirical ground motion model and shows great promise in seismology and beyond.

Malcolm C. A. White, Kushal Sharma, Ang Li et al.

Neural Networks and related Deep Learning methods are currently at the leading edge of technologies used for classifying objects. However, they generally demand large amounts of time and data for model training; and their learned models can sometimes be difficult to interpret. In this paper, we advance FastMapSVM -- an interpretable Machine Learning framework for classifying complex objects -- as an advantageous alternative to Neural Networks for general classification tasks. FastMapSVM extends the applicability of Support-Vector Machines (SVMs) to domains with complex objects by combining the complementary strengths of FastMap and SVMs. FastMap is an efficient linear-time algorithm that maps complex objects to points in a Euclidean space while preserving pairwise domain-specific distances between them. We demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of FastMapSVM in the context of classifying seismograms. We show that its performance, in terms of precision, recall, and accuracy, is comparable to that of other state-of-the-art methods. However, compared to other methods, FastMapSVM uses significantly smaller amounts of time and data for model training. It also provides a perspicuous visualization of the objects and the classification boundaries between them. We expect FastMapSVM to be viable for classification tasks in many other real-world domains.

Maxime Lacour, Pu Ren, Rie Nakata et al.

Recent developments in non-ergodic ground-motion models (GMMs) explicitly model systematic spatial variations in source, site, and path effects, reducing standard deviation to 30-40% of ergodic models and enabling more accurate site-specific seismic hazard analysis. Current non-ergodic GMMs rely on Gaussian Process (GP) methods with prescribed correlation functions and thus have computational limitations for large-scale predictions. This study proposes a deep-learning approach called Conditional Generative Modeling for Fourier Amplitude Spectra (CGM-FAS) as an alternative to GP-based methods for modeling non-ergodic path effects in Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS). CGM-FAS uses a Conditional Variational Autoencoder architecture to learn spatial patterns and interfrequency correlation directly from data by using geographical coordinates of earthquakes and stations as conditional variables. Using San Francisco Bay Area earthquake data, we compare CGM-FAS against a recent GP-based GMM for the region and demonstrate consistent predictions of non-ergodic path effects. Additionally, CGM-FAS offers advantages compared to GP-based approaches in learning spatial patterns without prescribed correlation functions, capturing interfrequency correlations, and enabling rapid predictions, generating maps for 10,000 sites across 1,000 frequencies within 10 seconds using a few GB of memory. CGM-FAS hyperparameters can be tuned to ensure generated path effects exhibit variability consistent with the GP-based empirical GMM. This work demonstrates a promising direction for efficient non-ergodic ground-motion prediction across multiple frequencies and large spatial domains.