Kirsten J. Mayer

Nihanth W. Cherukuru, Matt Rehme, Kirsten J. Mayer et al.

Earth system science is producing increasingly large, high-dimensional datasets from physics based Earth system models to AI-based weather and climate models. Embedding-based representations can make these data searchable through similarity search and analog retrieval, but nearest neighbors in latent space are not automatically scientifically meaningful: it may reflect real weather structure, or preprocessing, geography, or model bias. Researchers therefore need ways to inspect how embeddings organize meteorological data, compare representation models, develop retrieval strategies, and verify results against physical evidence. We present an open-source visual analytics workbench for each of these steps. The system links embedding experiments to source data, metadata, spatial context, and model configurations, so latent-space results can be traced back to the physics. Users can explore latent spaces for different models, issue global or localized queries, and inspect analogs through familiar meteorological views. This enables a discovery workflow in which scientists characterize a phenomenon of interest in a well-understood dataset, identifying its signature in latent space, and then use that signature to probe larger, less-labeled archives or ensembles for similar events. We demonstrate the workbench through tropical-cyclone retrieval using ERA5-derived embeddings and IBTrACS metadata, and evaluate its out-of-core retrieval backend to show that large embedding collections can be searched beyond in-memory limits on commodity workstation hardware.

John S. Schreck, William E. Chapman, Charlie Becker et al.

AI weather prediction ensembles with latent noise injection and optimized with the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) have produced both accurate and well-calibrated predictions with far less computational cost compared with diffusion-based methods. However, current CRPS ensemble approaches vary in their training strategies and noise injection mechanisms, with most injecting noise globally throughout the network via conditional normalization. This structure increases training expense and limits the physical interpretability of the stochastic perturbations. We introduce Stochastic Decomposition Layers (SDL) for converting deterministic machine learning weather models into probabilistic ensemble systems. Adapted from StyleGAN's hierarchical noise injection, SDL applies learned perturbations at three decoder scales through latent-driven modulation, per-pixel noise, and channel scaling. When applied to WXFormer via transfer learning, SDL requires less than 2\% of the computational cost needed to train the baseline model. Each ensemble member is generated from a compact latent tensor (5 MB), enabling perfect reproducibility and post-inference spread adjustment through latent rescaling. Evaluation on 2022 ERA5 reanalysis shows ensembles with spread-skill ratios approaching unity and rank histograms that progressively flatten toward uniformity through medium-range forecasts, achieving calibration competitive with operational IFS-ENS. Multi-scale experiments reveal hierarchical uncertainty: coarse layers modulate synoptic patterns while fine layers control mesoscale variability. The explicit latent parameterization provides interpretable uncertainty quantification for operational forecasting and climate applications.