Rui Miao

Rui Miao, Zhengling Qi, Xiaoke Zhang

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) for episodic Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous states. Motivated by the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework, we develop a non-parametric identification result for estimating the policy value via a sequence of so-called V-bridge functions with the help of time-dependent proxy variables. We then develop a fitted-Q-evaluation-type algorithm to estimate V-bridge functions recursively, where a non-parametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem is solved at each step. By analyzing this challenging sequential NPIV problem, we establish the finite-sample error bounds for estimating the V-bridge functions and accordingly that for evaluating the policy value, in terms of the sample size, length of horizon and so-called (local) measure of ill-posedness at each step. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first finite-sample error bound for OPE in POMDPs under non-parametric models.

Rui Miao, Zhengling Qi, Cong Shi et al.

Pricing based on individual customer characteristics is widely used to maximize sellers' revenues. This work studies offline personalized pricing under endogeneity using an instrumental variable approach. Standard instrumental variable methods in causal inference/econometrics either focus on a discrete treatment space or require the exclusion restriction of instruments from having a direct effect on the outcome, which limits their applicability in personalized pricing. In this paper, we propose a new policy learning method for Personalized pRicing using Invalid iNsTrumental variables (PRINT) for continuous treatment that allow direct effects on the outcome. Specifically, relying on the structural models of revenue and price, we establish the identifiability condition of an optimal pricing strategy under endogeneity with the help of invalid instrumental variables. Based on this new identification, which leads to solving conditional moment restrictions with generalized residual functions, we construct an adversarial min-max estimator and learn an optimal pricing strategy. Furthermore, we establish an asymptotic regret bound to find an optimal pricing strategy. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method via extensive simulation studies as well as a real data application from an US online auto loan company.

Rui Miao, Yixin Liu, Yili Wang et al.

The security of LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) is critically threatened by propagation vulnerability, where malicious agents can distort collective decision-making through inter-agent message interactions. While existing supervised defense methods demonstrate promising performance, they may be impractical in real-world scenarios due to their heavy reliance on labeled malicious agents to train a supervised malicious detection model. To enable practical and generalizable MAS defenses, in this paper, we propose BlindGuard, an unsupervised defense method that learns without requiring any attack-specific labels or prior knowledge of malicious behaviors. To this end, we establish a hierarchical agent encoder to capture individual, neighborhood, and global interaction patterns of each agent, providing a comprehensive understanding for malicious agent detection. Meanwhile, we design a corruption-guided detector that consists of directional noise injection and contrastive learning, allowing effective detection model training solely on normal agent behaviors. Extensive experiments show that BlindGuard effectively detects diverse attack types (i.e., prompt injection, memory poisoning, and tool attack) across MAS with various communication patterns while maintaining superior generalizability compared to supervised baselines. The code is available at: https://github.com/MR9812/BlindGuard.

Rui Miao, Babak Shahbaba, Annie Qu

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find optimal policies in dynamic environments in order to maximize the expected total rewards by leveraging pre-collected data. Learning from heterogeneous data is one of the fundamental challenges in offline RL. Traditional methods focus on learning an optimal policy for all individuals with pre-collected data from a single episode or homogeneous batch episodes, and thus, may result in a suboptimal policy for a heterogeneous population. In this paper, we propose an individualized offline policy optimization framework for heterogeneous time-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs). The proposed heterogeneous model with individual latent variables enables us to efficiently estimate the individual Q-functions, and our Penalized Pessimistic Personalized Policy Learning (P4L) algorithm guarantees a fast rate on the average regret under a weak partial coverage assumption on behavior policies. In addition, our simulation studies and a real data application demonstrate the superior numerical performance of the proposed method compared with existing methods.

Zhengling Qi, Rui Miao, Xiaoke Zhang

Data-driven individualized decision making has recently received increasing research interests. Most existing methods rely on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, which unfortunately cannot be ensured in practice especially in observational studies. Motivated by the recent proposed proximal causal inference, we develop several proximal learning approaches to estimating optimal individualized treatment regimes (ITRs) in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In particular, we establish several identification results for different classes of ITRs, exhibiting the trade-off between the risk of making untestable assumptions and the value function improvement in decision making. Based on these results, we propose several classification-based approaches to finding a variety of restricted in-class optimal ITRs and develop their theoretical properties. The appealing numerical performance of our proposed methods is demonstrated via an extensive simulation study and one real data application.