Svetlana Dubinkina

Nazanin Abedini, Jana de Wiljes, Svetlana Dubinkina

State estimation that combines observational data with mathematical models is central to many applications and is commonly addressed through filtering methods, such as ensemble Kalman filters. In this article, we examine the signal-tracking performance of a continuous ensemble Kalman filtering under fixed, randomised, and adaptively varying partial observations. Rigorous bounds are established for the expected signal-tracking error relative to the randomness of the observation operator. In addition, we propose a sequential learning scheme that adaptively determines the dimension of a state subspace sufficient to ensure bounded filtering error, by balancing observation complexity with estimation accuracy. Beyond error control, the adaptive scheme provides a systematic approach to identifying the appropriate size of the filter-relevant subspace of the underlying dynamics.

Bart de Leeuw, Svetlana Dubinkina, Jason Frank et al.

In this article we develop algorithms for data assimilation based upon a computational time dependent stable/unstable splitting. Our particular method is based upon shadowing refinement and synchronization techniques and is motivated by work on Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) and Pseudo-orbit Data Assimilation (PDA). The algorithm utilizes time dependent projections onto the non-stable subspace determined by employing computational techniques for Lyapunov exponents/vectors. The method is extended to parameter estimation without changing the problem dynamics and we address techniques for adapting the method when (as is commonly the case) observations are not available in the full model state space. We use a combination of analysis and numerical experiments (with the Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 96 models) to illustrate the efficacy of the techniques and show that the results compare favorably with other variational techniques.