Tom Hartvigsen

Mike A. Merrill, Mingtian Tan, Vinayak Gupta et al.

Time series are critical for decision-making in fields like finance and healthcare. Their importance has driven a recent influx of works passing time series into language models, leading to non-trivial forecasting on some datasets. But it remains unknown whether non-trivial forecasting implies that language models can reason about time series. To address this gap, we generate a first-of-its-kind evaluation framework for time series reasoning, including formal tasks and a corresponding dataset of multi-scale time series paired with text captions across ten domains. Using these data, we probe whether language models achieve three forms of reasoning: (1) Etiological Reasoning - given an input time series, can the language model identify the scenario that most likely created it? (2) Question Answering - can a language model answer factual questions about time series? (3) Context-Aided Forecasting - does highly relevant textual context improve a language model's time series forecasts? We find that otherwise highly-capable language models demonstrate surprisingly limited time series reasoning: they score marginally above random on etiological and question answering tasks (up to 30 percentage points worse than humans) and show modest success in using context to improve forecasting. These weakness showcase that time series reasoning is an impactful, yet deeply underdeveloped direction for language model research. We also make our datasets and code public at to support further research in this direction at https://github.com/behavioral-data/TSandLanguage

Bernardo Consoli, Xizhi Wu, Song Wang et al.

Extracting social determinants of health (SDoH) from unstructured medical notes depends heavily on labor-intensive annotations, which are typically task-specific, hampering reusability and limiting sharing. In this study we introduced SDoH-GPT, a simple and effective few-shot Large Language Model (LLM) method leveraging contrastive examples and concise instructions to extract SDoH without relying on extensive medical annotations or costly human intervention. It achieved tenfold and twentyfold reductions in time and cost respectively, and superior consistency with human annotators measured by Cohen's kappa of up to 0.92. The innovative combination of SDoH-GPT and XGBoost leverages the strengths of both, ensuring high accuracy and computational efficiency while consistently maintaining 0.90+ AUROC scores. Testing across three distinct datasets has confirmed its robustness and accuracy. This study highlights the potential of leveraging LLMs to revolutionize medical note classification, demonstrating their capability to achieve highly accurate classifications with significantly reduced time and cost.

Yash Kumar Atri, Steven L. Johnson, Tom Hartvigsen

Language models are increasingly deployed in interactive settings where users reason about facts over time rather than in isolation. In such scenarios, correct behavior requires models to maintain and update implicit temporal assumptions established earlier in a conversation. We study this challenge through the lens of temporal scope stability: the ability to preserve, override, or transfer time-scoped factual context across dialogue turns. We introduce ChronoScope, a large-scale diagnostic benchmark designed to isolate temporal scope behavior in controlled multi-turn interactions, comprising over one million deterministically generated question chains grounded in Wikidata. ChronoScope evaluates whether models can correctly retain inferred temporal scope when follow-up questions omit explicit time references, spanning implicit carryover, explicit scope switching, cross-entity transfer, and longer temporal trajectories. Through extensive evaluation of state-of-the-art language models, we find that temporal scope stability is frequently violated in controlled multi-turn settings, with models often drifting toward present-day assumptions despite correct underlying knowledge. These failures intensify with interaction length and persist even under oracle context conditions, revealing a gap between single-turn factual accuracy and coherent temporal reasoning under sequential interaction. We make our dataset and evaluation suite publicly available at https://github.com/yashkumaratri/ChronoScope

Jiaxing Qiu, Dongliang Guo, Natalie Papini et al.

Free-text responses are commonly collected in psychological studies, providing rich qualitative insights that quantitative measures may not capture. Labeling curated topics of research interest in free-text data by multiple trained human coders is typically labor-intensive and time-consuming. Though large language models (LLMs) excel in language processing, LLM-assisted labeling techniques relying on closed-source LLMs cannot be directly applied to free-text data, without explicit consent for external use. In this study, we propose a framework of assembling locally-deployable LLMs to enhance the labeling of predetermined topics in free-text data under privacy constraints. Analogous to annotation by multiple human raters, this framework leverages the heterogeneity of diverse open-source LLMs. The ensemble approach seeks a balance between the agreement and disagreement across LLMs, guided by a relevancy scoring methodology that utilizes embedding distances between topic descriptions and LLMs' reasoning. We evaluated the ensemble approach using both publicly accessible Reddit data from eating disorder related forums, and free-text responses from eating disorder patients, both complemented by human annotations. We found that: (1) there is heterogeneity in the performance of labeling among same-sized LLMs, with some showing low sensitivity but high precision, while others exhibit high sensitivity but low precision. (2) Compared to individual LLMs, the ensemble of LLMs achieved the highest accuracy and optimal precision-sensitivity trade-off in predicting human annotations. (3) The relevancy scores across LLMs showed greater agreement than dichotomous labels, indicating that the relevancy scoring method effectively mitigates the heterogeneity in LLMs' labeling.

Mingtian Tan, Mike A. Merrill, Zack Gottesman et al.

Time series data measure how environments change over time and drive decision-making in critical domains like finance and healthcare. A common goal in analyzing time series data is to understand the underlying events that cause the observed variations. We conduct the first study of whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can infer events described with natural language from time series data. We evaluate 18 LLMs on a task to match event sequences with real-valued time series data using a new benchmark we develop using sports data. Several current LLMs demonstrate promising abilities, with OpenAI's o1 performing the best but with DS-R1-distill-Qwen-32B outperforming proprietary models such as GPT-4o. From insights derived from analyzing reasoning failures, we also find clear avenues to improve performance. By applying post-training optimizations, i.e., distillation and self-improvement, we significantly enhance the performance of the Qwen2.5 1.5B, achieving results second only to o1. All resources needed to reproduce our work are available: https://github.com/BennyTMT/GAMETime

Haoxin Liu, Harshavardhan Kamarthi, Zhiyuan Zhao et al.

Time series analysis (TSA) is a longstanding research topic in the data mining community and has wide real-world significance. Compared to "richer" modalities such as language and vision, which have recently experienced explosive development and are densely connected, the time-series modality remains relatively underexplored and isolated. We notice that many recent TSA works have formed a new research field, i.e., Multiple Modalities for TSA (MM4TSA). In general, these MM4TSA works follow a common motivation: how TSA can benefit from multiple modalities. This survey is the first to offer a comprehensive review and a detailed outlook for this emerging field. Specifically, we systematically discuss three benefits: (1) reusing foundation models of other modalities for efficient TSA, (2) multimodal extension for enhanced TSA, and (3) cross-modality interaction for advanced TSA. We further group the works by the introduced modality type, including text, images, audio, tables, and others, within each perspective. Finally, we identify the gaps with future opportunities, including the reused modalities selections, heterogeneous modality combinations, and unseen tasks generalizations, corresponding to the three benefits. We release an up-to-date GitHub repository that includes key papers and resources.

Lukas Thede, Karsten Roth, Matthias Bethge et al.

Keeping large language models factually up-to-date is crucial for deployment, yet costly retraining remains a challenge. Knowledge editing offers a promising alternative, but methods are only tested on small-scale or synthetic edit benchmarks. In this work, we aim to bridge research into lifelong knowledge editing to real-world edits at a practically relevant scale. We first introduce WikiBigEdit; a large-scale benchmark of real-world Wikidata edits, built to automatically extend lifelong for future-proof benchmarking. In its first instance, it includes over 500K question-answer pairs for knowledge editing alongside a comprehensive evaluation pipeline. Finally, we use WikiBigEdit to study existing knowledge editing techniques' ability to incorporate large volumes of real-world facts and contrast their capabilities to generic modification techniques such as retrieval augmentation and continual finetuning to acquire a complete picture of the practical extent of current lifelong knowledge editing.

Hyewon Jeong, Sarah Jabbour, Yuzhe Yang et al. · uw

The third ML4H symposium was held in person on December 10, 2023, in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. The symposium included research roundtable sessions to foster discussions between participants and senior researchers on timely and relevant topics for the \ac{ML4H} community. Encouraged by the successful virtual roundtables in the previous year, we organized eleven in-person roundtables and four virtual roundtables at ML4H 2022. The organization of the research roundtables at the conference involved 17 Senior Chairs and 19 Junior Chairs across 11 tables. Each roundtable session included invited senior chairs (with substantial experience in the field), junior chairs (responsible for facilitating the discussion), and attendees from diverse backgrounds with interest in the session's topic. Herein we detail the organization process and compile takeaways from these roundtable discussions, including recent advances, applications, and open challenges for each topic. We conclude with a summary and lessons learned across all roundtables. This document serves as a comprehensive review paper, summarizing the recent advancements in machine learning for healthcare as contributed by foremost researchers in the field.

Medhasweta Sen, Zachary Gottesman, Jiaxing Qiu et al.

Recent works propose complex multi-modal models that handle both time series and language, ultimately claiming high performance on complex tasks like time series reasoning and cross-modal question-answering. However, they skip evaluations of simple and important foundational tasks, which complex models should reliably master. They also lack direct, head-to-head comparisons with other popular approaches. So we ask a simple question: Can recent models even produce generic visual descriptions of time series data? In response, we propose three new tasks, posing that successful multi-modal models should be able to recognize, differentiate, and generate language descriptions of time series. We then create BEDTime, the first benchmark dataset to assess models on each task, comprising four datasets reformatted for these tasks across multiple modalities. Using BEDTime, we evaluate 13 state-of-the-art models, and find that (1) surprisingly, dedicated time series foundation models severely underperform, despite being designed for similar tasks, (2) vision-language models are quite capable, (3) language-only methods perform worst, despite many lauding their potential, and (4) all approaches are clearly fragile to a range of realistic robustness tests, indicating avenues for future work.

Jiaxing Qiu, Dongliang Guo, Brynne Sullivan et al.

In time series editing, we aim to modify some properties of a given time series without altering others. For example, when analyzing a hospital patient's blood pressure, we may add a sudden early drop and observe how it impacts their future while preserving other conditions. Existing diffusion-based editors rely on rigid, predefined attribute vectors as conditions and produce all-or-nothing edits through sampling. This attribute- and sampling-based approach limits flexibility in condition format and lacks customizable control over editing strength. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Instruction-based Time Series Editing, where users specify intended edits using natural language. This allows users to express a wider range of edits in a more accessible format. We then introduce InstructTime, the first instruction-based time series editor. InstructTime takes in time series and instructions, embeds them into a shared multi-modal representation space, then decodes their embeddings to generate edited time series. By learning a structured multi-modal representation space, we can easily interpolate between embeddings to achieve varying degrees of edit. To handle local and global edits together, we propose multi-resolution encoders. In our experiments, we use synthetic and real datasets and find that InstructTime is a state-of-the-art time series editor: InstructTime achieves high-quality edits with controllable strength, can generalize to unseen instructions, and can be easily adapted to unseen conditions through few-shot learning.