Campbell Watson

Paula Harder, Alex Hernandez-Garcia, Venkatesh Ramesh et al. · mila

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and, therefore, often generate coarse-resolution predictions. Statistical downscaling, including super-resolution methods from deep learning, can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. However, despite achieving visually compelling results in some cases, such models frequently violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve physical quantities, here we introduce methods that guarantee statistical constraints are satisfied by a deep learning downscaling model, while also improving their performance according to traditional metrics. We compare different constraining approaches and demonstrate their applicability across different neural architectures as well as a variety of climate and weather data sets. Besides enabling faster and more accurate climate predictions through downscaling, we also show that our novel methodologies can improve super-resolution for satellite data and natural images data sets.

Johannes Schmude, Sujit Roy, Will Trojak et al.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Ayush Prasad, Paula Harder, Qidong Yang et al. · mila

Climate downscaling, the process of generating high-resolution climate data from low-resolution simulations, is essential for understanding and adapting to climate change at regional and local scales. Deep learning approaches have proven useful in tackling this problem. However, existing studies usually focus on training models for one specific task, location and variable, which are therefore limited in their generalizability and transferability. In this paper, we evaluate the efficacy of training deep learning downscaling models on multiple diverse climate datasets to learn more robust and transferable representations. We evaluate the effectiveness of architectures zero-shot transferability using CNNs, Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs), and vision Transformers (ViTs). We assess the spatial, variable, and product transferability of downscaling models experimentally, to understand the generalizability of these different architecture types.

S. Karthik Mukkavilli, Daniel Salles Civitarese, Johannes Schmude et al.

Machine learning and deep learning methods have been widely explored in understanding the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere and furthering weather forecasting. There has been increasing interest from technology companies, government institutions, and meteorological agencies in building digital twins of the Earth. Recent approaches using transformers, physics-informed machine learning, and graph neural networks have demonstrated state-of-the-art performance on relatively narrow spatiotemporal scales and specific tasks. With the recent success of generative artificial intelligence (AI) using pre-trained transformers for language modeling and vision with prompt engineering and fine-tuning, we are now moving towards generalizable AI. In particular, we are witnessing the rise of AI foundation models that can perform competitively on multiple domain-specific downstream tasks. Despite this progress, we are still in the nascent stages of a generalizable AI model for global Earth system models, regional climate models, and mesoscale weather models. Here, we review current state-of-the-art AI approaches, primarily from transformer and operator learning literature in the context of meteorology. We provide our perspective on criteria for success towards a family of foundation models for nowcasting and forecasting weather and climate predictions. We also discuss how such models can perform competitively on downstream tasks such as downscaling (super-resolution), identifying conditions conducive to the occurrence of wildfires, and predicting consequential meteorological phenomena across various spatiotemporal scales such as hurricanes and atmospheric rivers. In particular, we examine current AI methodologies and contend they have matured enough to design and implement a weather foundation model.

Eduardo Rodrigues, Bianca Zadrozny, Campbell Watson

Wildfire events have caused severe losses in many places around the world and are expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the years many technologies have been developed to identify fire events early on and to simulate fire behavior once they have started. Another particularly helpful technology is fire risk indices, which use weather forcing to make advanced predictions of the risk of fire. Predictions of fire risk indices can be used, for instance, to allocate resources in places with high risk. These indices have been developed over the years as empirical models with parameters that were estimated in lab experiments and field tests. These parameters, however, may not fit well all places where these models are used. In this paper we propose a novel implementation of one index (NFDRS IC) as a differentiable function in which one can optimize its internal parameters via gradient descent. We leverage existing machine learning frameworks (PyTorch) to construct our model. This approach has two benefits: (1) the NFDRS IC parameters can be improved for each region using actual observed fire events, and (2) the internal variables remain intact for interpretations by specialists instead of meaningless hidden layers as in traditional neural networks. In this paper we evaluate our strategy with actual fire events for locations in the USA and Europe.

Juan Nathaniel, Levente J. Klein, Campbell D. Watson et al.

The global carbon cycle is a key process to understand how our climate is changing. However, monitoring the dynamics is difficult because a high-resolution robust measurement of key state parameters including the aboveground carbon biomass (AGB) is required. Here, we use deep neural network to generate a wall-to-wall map of AGB within the Continental USA (CONUS) with 30-meter spatial resolution for the year 2021. We combine radar and optical hyperspectral imagery, with a physical climate parameter of SIF-based GPP. Validation results show that a masked variation of UNet has the lowest validation RMSE of 37.93 $\pm$ 1.36 Mg C/ha, as compared to 52.30 $\pm$ 0.03 Mg C/ha for random forest algorithm. Furthermore, models that learn from SIF-based GPP in addition to radar and optical imagery reduce validation RMSE by almost 10% and the standard deviation by 40%. Finally, we apply our model to measure losses in AGB from the recent 2021 Caldor wildfire in California, and validate our analysis with Sentinel-based burn index.

Sagar Soni, Akshay Dudhane, Hiyam Debary et al.

Automated analysis of vast Earth observation data via interactive Vision-Language Models (VLMs) can unlock new opportunities for environmental monitoring, disaster response, and {resource management}. Existing generic VLMs do not perform well on Remote Sensing data, while the recent Geo-spatial VLMs remain restricted to a fixed resolution and few sensor modalities. In this paper, we introduce EarthDial, a conversational assistant specifically designed for Earth Observation (EO) data, transforming complex, multi-sensory Earth observations into interactive, natural language dialogues. EarthDial supports multi-spectral, multi-temporal, and multi-resolution imagery, enabling a wide range of remote sensing tasks, including classification, detection, captioning, question answering, visual reasoning, and visual grounding. To achieve this, we introduce an extensive instruction tuning dataset comprising over 11.11M instruction pairs covering RGB, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), and multispectral modalities such as Near-Infrared (NIR) and infrared. Furthermore, EarthDial handles bi-temporal and multi-temporal sequence analysis for applications like change detection. Our extensive experimental results on 44 downstream datasets demonstrate that EarthDial outperforms existing generic and domain-specific models, achieving better generalization across various EO tasks. Our source codes and pre-trained models are at https://github.com/hiyamdebary/EarthDial.

Craig Mahlasi, Gciniwe S. Baloyi, Zaheed Gaffoor et al.

Geospatial foundation models (GFMs) are a fast-emerging paradigm for various geospatial tasks, such as ecological mapping. However, the utility of GFMs has not been fully explored for high-value use cases. This study aims to explore the utility, challenges and opportunities associated with the application of GFMs for ecological uses. In this regard, we fine-tune several pretrained AI models, namely, Prithvi-E0-2.0 and TerraMind, across three use cases, and compare this with a baseline ResNet-101 model. Firstly, we demonstrate TerraMind's LULC generation capabilities. Lastly, we explore the utility of the GFMs in forest functional trait mapping and peatlands detection. In all experiments, the GFMs outperform the baseline ResNet models. In general TerraMind marginally outperforms Prithvi. However, with additional modalities TerraMind significantly outperforms the baseline ResNet and Prithvi models. Nonetheless, consideration should be given to the divergence of input data from pretrained modalities. We note that these models would benefit from higher resolution and more accurate labels, especially for use cases where pixel-level dynamics need to be mapped.

Movina Moses, Mohab Elkaref, James Barry et al.

We present QGen Studio: an adaptive question-answer generation, training, and evaluation platform. QGen Studio enables users to leverage large language models (LLMs) to create custom question-answer datasets and fine-tune models on this synthetic data. It features a dataset viewer and model explorer to streamline this process. The dataset viewer provides key metrics and visualizes the context from which the QA pairs are generated, offering insights into data quality. The model explorer supports model comparison, allowing users to contrast the performance of their trained LLMs against other models, supporting performance benchmarking and refinement. QGen Studio delivers an interactive, end-to-end solution for generating QA datasets and training scalable, domain-adaptable models. The studio will be open-sourced soon, allowing users to deploy it locally.

Jorge Guevara, Dario Borges, Campbell Watson et al.

Future climate change scenarios are usually hypothesized using simulations from weather generators. However, there only a few works comparing and evaluating promising deep learning models for weather generation against classical approaches. This study shows preliminary results making such evaluations for the multisite precipitation synthesis task. We compared two open-source weather generators: IBMWeathergen (an extension of the Weathergen library) and RGeneratePrec, and two deep generative models: GAN and VAE, on a variety of metrics. Our preliminary results can serve as a guide for improving the design of deep learning architectures and algorithms for the multisite precipitation synthesis task.

Daniela Szwarcman, Sujit Roy, Paolo Fraccaro et al.

This technical report presents Prithvi-EO-2.0, a new geospatial foundation model that offers significant improvements over its predecessor, Prithvi-EO-1.0. Trained on 4.2M global time series samples from NASA's Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archive at 30m resolution, the new 300M and 600M parameter models incorporate temporal and location embeddings for enhanced performance across various geospatial tasks. Through extensive benchmarking with GEO-Bench, the 600M version outperforms the previous Prithvi-EO model by 8\% across a range of tasks. It also outperforms six other geospatial foundation models when benchmarked on remote sensing tasks from different domains and resolutions (i.e. from 0.1m to 15m). The results demonstrate the versatility of the model in both classical earth observation and high-resolution applications. Early involvement of end-users and subject matter experts (SMEs) are among the key factors that contributed to the project's success. In particular, SME involvement allowed for constant feedback on model and dataset design, as well as successful customization for diverse SME-led applications in disaster response, land use and crop mapping, and ecosystem dynamics monitoring. Prithvi-EO-2.0 is available on Hugging Face and IBM terratorch, with additional resources on GitHub. The project exemplifies the Trusted Open Science approach embraced by all involved organizations.

Qidong Yang, Jonathan Giezendanner, Daniel Salles Civitarese et al.

Urgent applications like wildfire management and renewable energy generation require precise, localized weather forecasts near the Earth's surface. However, forecasts produced by machine learning models or numerical weather prediction systems are typically generated on large-scale regular grids, where direct downscaling fails to capture fine-grained, near-surface weather patterns. In this work, we propose a multi-modal transformer model trained end-to-end to downscale gridded forecasts to off-grid locations of interest. Our model directly combines local historical weather observations (e.g., wind, temperature, dewpoint) with gridded forecasts to produce locally accurate predictions at various lead times. Multiple data modalities are collected and concatenated at station-level locations, treated as a token at each station. Using self-attention, the token corresponding to the target location aggregates information from its neighboring tokens. Experiments using weather stations across the Northeastern United States show that our model outperforms a range of data-driven and non-data-driven off-grid forecasting methods. They also reveal that direct input of station data provides a phase shift in local weather forecasting accuracy, reducing the prediction error by up to 80% compared to pure gridded data based models. This approach demonstrates how to bridge the gap between large-scale weather models and locally accurate forecasts to support high-stakes, location-sensitive decision-making.

Sujit Roy, Johannes Schmude, Rohit Lal et al.

Heliophysics is central to understanding and forecasting space weather events and solar activity. Despite decades of high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), most models remain task-specific and constrained by scarce labeled data, limiting their capacity to generalize across solar phenomena. We introduce Surya, a 366M parameter foundation model for heliophysics designed to learn general-purpose solar representations from multi-instrument SDO observations, including eight Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) channels and five Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) products. Surya employs a spatiotemporal transformer architecture with spectral gating and long--short range attention, pretrained on high-resolution solar image forecasting tasks and further optimized through autoregressive rollout tuning. Zero-shot evaluations demonstrate its ability to forecast solar dynamics and flare events, while downstream fine-tuning with parameter-efficient Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) shows strong performance on solar wind forecasting, active region segmentation, solar flare forecasting, and EUV spectra. Surya is the first foundation model in heliophysics that uses time advancement as a pretext task on full-resolution SDO data. Its novel architecture and performance suggest that the model is able to learn the underlying physics behind solar evolution.

Sujit Roy, Dinesha V. Hegde, Johannes Schmude et al.

This paper introduces a high resolution, machine learning-ready heliophysics dataset derived from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), specifically designed to advance machine learning (ML) applications in solar physics and space weather forecasting. The dataset includes processed imagery from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), spanning a solar cycle from May 2010 to July 2024. To ensure suitability for ML tasks, the data has been preprocessed, including correction of spacecraft roll angles, orbital adjustments, exposure normalization, and degradation compensation. We also provide auxiliary application benchmark datasets complementing the core SDO dataset. These provide benchmark applications for central heliophysics and space weather tasks such as active region segmentation, active region emergence forecasting, coronal field extrapolation, solar flare prediction, solar EUV spectra prediction, and solar wind speed estimation. By establishing a unified, standardized data collection, this dataset aims to facilitate benchmarking, enhance reproducibility, and accelerate the development of AI-driven models for critical space weather prediction tasks, bridging gaps between solar physics, machine learning, and operational forecasting.

Michal Muszynski, Levente Klein, Ademir Ferreira da Silva et al.

Global vegetation structure mapping is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and maximizing the efficacy of nature-based carbon sequestration initiatives. Moreover, vegetation structure mapping can help reduce the impacts of climate change by, for example, guiding actions to improve water security, increase biodiversity and reduce flood risk. Global satellite measurements provide an important set of observations for monitoring and managing deforestation and degradation of existing forests, natural forest regeneration, reforestation, biodiversity restoration, and the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this paper, we explore the effectiveness of fine-tuning of a geospatial foundation model to estimate above-ground biomass (AGB) using space-borne data collected across different eco-regions in Brazil. The fine-tuned model architecture consisted of a Swin-B transformer as the encoder (i.e., backbone) and a single convolutional layer for the decoder head. All results were compared to a U-Net which was trained as the baseline model Experimental results of this sparse-label prediction task demonstrate that the fine-tuned geospatial foundation model with a frozen encoder has comparable performance to a U-Net trained from scratch. This is despite the fine-tuned model having 13 times less parameters requiring optimization, which saves both time and compute resources. Further, we explore the transfer-learning capabilities of the geospatial foundation models by fine-tuning on satellite imagery with sparse labels from different eco-regions in Brazil.

Qidong Yang, Alex Hernandez-Garcia, Paula Harder et al.

Climate simulations are essential in guiding our understanding of climate change and responding to its effects. However, it is computationally expensive to resolve complex climate processes at high spatial resolution. As one way to speed up climate simulations, neural networks have been used to downscale climate variables from fast-running low-resolution simulations, but high-resolution training data are often unobtainable or scarce, greatly limiting accuracy. In this work, we propose a downscaling method based on the Fourier neural operator. It trains with data of a small upsampling factor and then can zero-shot downscale its input to arbitrary unseen high resolution. Evaluated both on ERA5 climate model data and on the Navier-Stokes equation solution data, our downscaling model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art convolutional and generative adversarial downscaling models, both in standard single-resolution downscaling and in zero-shot generalization to higher upsampling factors. Furthermore, we show that our method also outperforms state-of-the-art data-driven partial differential equation solvers on Navier-Stokes equations. Overall, our work bridges the gap between simulation of a physical process and interpolation of low-resolution output, showing that it is possible to combine both approaches and significantly improve upon each other.

Ken C. L. Wong, Hongzhi Wang, Etienne E. Vos et al.

Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for such extreme events. Although machine learning approaches have shown promising results in long-range climate forecasting, the associated model uncertainties may reduce their reliability. To address this issue, we propose a late fusion approach that systematically combines the predictions from multiple models to reduce the expected errors of the fused results. We also propose a network architecture with the novel denormalization layer to gain the benefits of data normalization without actually normalizing the data. The experimental results on long-range 2m temperature forecasting show that the framework outperforms the 30-year climate normals, and the accuracy can be improved by increasing the number of models.

Dario Augusto Borges Oliveira, Jorge Guevara Diaz, Bianca Zadrozny et al.

One of the consequences of climate change is anobserved increase in the frequency of extreme cli-mate events. That poses a challenge for weatherforecast and generation algorithms, which learnfrom historical data but should embed an often un-certain bias to create correct scenarios. This paperinvestigates how mapping climate data to a knowndistribution using variational autoencoders mighthelp explore such biases and control the synthesisof weather fields towards more extreme climatescenarios. We experimented using a monsoon-affected precipitation dataset from southwest In-dia, which should give a roughly stable pattern ofrainy days and ease our investigation. We reportcompelling results showing that mapping complexweather data to a known distribution implementsan efficient control for weather field synthesis to-wards more (or less) extreme scenarios.

Daniel Salles Civitarese, Daniela Szwarcman, Bianca Zadrozny et al.

An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we present an approach to forecasting the quantiles of the maximum daily precipitation in each week up to six months ahead using the temporal fusion transformer (TFT) model. Through experiments in two regions, we compare TFT predictions with those of two baselines: climatology and a calibrated ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble forecast (S5). Our results show that, in terms of quantile risk at six month lead time, the TFT predictions significantly outperform those from S5 and show an overall small improvement compared to climatology. The TFT also responds positively to departures from normal that climatology cannot.

Eduardo Rodrigues, Bianca Zadrozny, Campbell Watson et al.

Operational forecasting centers are investing in decadal (1-10 year) forecast systems to support long-term decision making for a more climate-resilient society. One method that has previously been employed is the Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) algorithm - also known as the Linear Inverse Model - which fits linear dynamical models to data. While the DMD usually approximates non-linear terms in the true dynamics as a linear system with random noise, we investigate an extension to the DMD that explicitly represents the non-linear terms as a neural network. Our weight initialization allows the network to produce sensible results before training and then improve the prediction after training as data becomes available. In this short paper, we evaluate the proposed architecture for simulating global sea surface temperatures and compare the results with the standard DMD and seasonal forecasts produced by the state-of-the-art dynamical model, CFSv2.

Bianca Zadrozny, Campbell D. Watson, Daniela Szwarcman et al.

Extreme weather events have an enormous impact on society and are expected to become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this context, resilience planning becomes crucial for risk mitigation and coping with these extreme events. Machine learning techniques can play a critical role in resilience planning through the generation of realistic extreme weather event scenarios that can be used to evaluate possible mitigation actions. This paper proposes a modular framework that relies on interchangeable components to produce extreme weather event scenarios. We discuss possible alternatives for each of the components and show initial results comparing two approaches on the task of generating precipitation scenarios.