Cody Carroll

Jessica M. Lundin, Ada Zhang, Nihal Karim et al.

Tokenization inefficiency imposes structural disadvantages on morphologically complex, low-resource languages, inflating compute resources and depressing accuracy. We evaluate 10 large language models (LLMs) on AfriMMLU (9,000 MCQA items; 5 subjects; 16 African languages) and show that fertility (tokens/word) reliably predicts accuracy. Higher fertility consistently predicts lower accuracy across all models and subjects. We further find that reasoning models (DeepSeek, o1) consistently outperform non-reasoning peers across high and low resource languages in the AfriMMLU dataset, narrowing accuracy gaps observed in prior generations. Finally, translating token inflation to economics, a doubling in tokens results in quadrupled training cost and time, underscoring the token tax faced by many languages. These results motivate morphologically aware tokenization, fair pricing, and multilingual benchmarks for equitable natural language processing (NLP).

Jessica M. Lundin, Ada Zhang, David Adelani et al.

We show that translation quality can be predicted with surprising accuracy \textit{without ever running the translation system itself}. Using only a handful of features, token fertility ratios, token counts, and basic linguistic metadata (language family, script, and region), we can forecast ChrF scores for GPT-4o translations across 203 languages in the FLORES-200 benchmark. Gradient boosting models achieve favorable performance ($R^{2}=0.66$ for XX$\rightarrow$English and $R^{2}=0.72$ for English$\rightarrow$XX). Feature importance analyses reveal that typological factors dominate predictions into English, while fertility plays a larger role for translations into diverse target languages. These findings suggest that translation quality is shaped by both token-level fertility and broader linguistic typology, offering new insights for multilingual evaluation and quality estimation.