Binqing Wu

Juyong Jiang, Binqing Wu, Ling Chen et al.

Traffic forecasting is an essential problem in urban planning and computing. The complex dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies among traffic objects (e.g., sensors and road segments) have been calling for highly flexible models; unfortunately, sophisticated models may suffer from poor robustness especially in capturing the trend of the time series (1st-order derivatives with time), leading to unrealistic forecasts. To address the challenge of balancing dynamics and robustness, we propose TrendGCN, a new scheme that extends the flexibility of GCNs and the distribution-preserving capacity of generative and adversarial loss for handling sequential data with inherent statistical correlations. On the one hand, our model simultaneously incorporates spatial (node-wise) embeddings and temporal (time-wise) embeddings to account for heterogeneous space-and-time convolutions; on the other hand, it uses GAN structure to systematically evaluate statistical consistencies between the real and the predicted time series in terms of both the temporal trending and the complex spatial-temporal dependencies. Compared with traditional approaches that handle step-wise predictive errors independently, our approach can produce more realistic and robust forecasts. Experiments on six benchmark traffic forecasting datasets and theoretical analysis both demonstrate the superiority and the state-of-the-art performance of TrendGCN. Source code is available at https://github.com/juyongjiang/TrendGCN.

Binqing Wu, Zongjiang Shang, Shiyu Liu et al.

Accurate air quality forecasting is essential for public health and environmental sustainability, but remains challenging due to the complex pollutant dynamics. Existing deep learning methods often model pollutant dynamics as an instantaneous process, overlooking the intrinsic delays in pollutant propagation. Thus, we propose AirDDE, the first neural delay differential equation framework in this task that integrates delay modeling into a continuous-time pollutant evolution under physical guidance. Specifically, two novel components are introduced: (1) a memory-augmented attention module that retrieves globally and locally historical features, which can adaptively capture delay effects modulated by multifactor data; and (2) a physics-guided delay evolving function, grounded in the diffusion-advection equation, that models diffusion, delayed advection, and source/sink terms, which can capture delay-aware pollutant accumulation patterns with physical plausibility. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that AirDDE achieves the state-of-the-art forecasting performance with an average MAE reduction of 8.79\% over the best baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/w2obin/airdde-aaai.

Binqing Wu, Weiqi Chen, Wengwei Wang et al.

Due to insufficient local area information, numerical weather prediction (NWP) may yield biases for specific areas. Previous studies correct biases mainly by employing handcrafted features or applying data-driven methods intuitively, overlooking the complicated dependencies between weather factors and between areas. To address this issue, we propose WeatherGNN, a local NWP bias-correction method that utilizes Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to exploit meteorological dependencies and spatial dependencies under the guidance of domain knowledge. Specifically, we introduce a factor GNN to capture area-specific meteorological dependencies adaptively based on spatial heterogeneity and a fast hierarchical GNN to capture dynamic spatial dependencies efficiently guided by Tobler's first and second laws of geography. Our experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that WeatherGNN achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baseline with an average of 4.75 \% on RMSE.

Zongjiang Shang, Ling Chen, Binqing wu et al.

Although transformer-based methods have achieved great success in multi-scale temporal pattern interaction modeling, two key challenges limit their further development: (1) Individual time points contain less semantic information, and leveraging attention to model pair-wise interactions may cause the information utilization bottleneck. (2) Multiple inherent temporal variations (e.g., rising, falling, and fluctuating) entangled in temporal patterns. To this end, we propose Adaptive Multi-Scale Hypergraph Transformer (Ada-MSHyper) for time series forecasting. Specifically, an adaptive hypergraph learning module is designed to provide foundations for modeling group-wise interactions, then a multi-scale interaction module is introduced to promote more comprehensive pattern interactions at different scales. In addition, a node and hyperedge constraint mechanism is introduced to cluster nodes with similar semantic information and differentiate the temporal variations within each scales. Extensive experiments on 11 real-world datasets demonstrate that Ada-MSHyper achieves state-of-the-art performance, reducing prediction errors by an average of 4.56%, 10.38%, and 4.97% in MSE for long-range, short-range, and ultra-long-range time series forecasting, respectively. Code is available at https://github.com/shangzongjiang/Ada-MSHyper.

Binqing Wu, Ling Chen

Traffic forecasting is essential to intelligent transportation systems, which is challenging due to the complicated spatial and temporal dependencies within a road network. Existing works usually learn spatial and temporal dependencies separately, ignoring the dependencies crossing spatial and temporal dimensions. In this paper, we propose DSTCGCN, a dynamic spatial-temporal cross graph convolution network to learn dynamic spatial and temporal dependencies jointly via graphs for traffic forecasting. Specifically, we introduce a fast Fourier transform (FFT) based attentive selector to choose relevant time steps for each time step based on time-varying traffic data. Given the selected time steps, we introduce a dynamic cross graph construction module, consisting of the spatial graph construction, temporal connection graph construction, and fusion modules, to learn dynamic spatial-temporal cross dependencies without pre-defined priors. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that DSTCGCN achieves the state-of-the-art performance.

Zongjiang Shang, Dongliang Cui, Binqing Wu et al.

Recently, there has been great success in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for time series analysis. The core idea lies in effectively aligning the modality between natural language and time series. However, the multi-scale structures of natural language and time series have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLMs capabilities. To this end, we propose MSH-LLM, a Multi-Scale Hypergraph method that aligns Large Language Models for time series analysis. Specifically, a hyperedging mechanism is designed to enhance the multi-scale semantic information of time series semantic space. Then, a cross-modality alignment (CMA) module is introduced to align the modality between natural language and time series at different scales. In addition, a mixture of prompts (MoP) mechanism is introduced to provide contextual information and enhance the ability of LLMs to understand the multi-scale temporal patterns of time series. Experimental results on 27 real-world datasets across 5 different applications demonstrate that MSH-LLM achieves the state-of-the-art results.

Pengwei Liu, Wenwei Wang, Bingqing Peng et al.

While widely recognized as one of the most substantial weather forecasting methodologies, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) usually suffers from relatively coarse resolution and inevitable bias due to tempo-spatial discretization, physical parametrization process, and computation limitation. With the roaring growth of deep learning-based techniques, we propose the Dual-Stage Adaptive Framework (DSAF), a novel framework to address regional NWP downscaling and bias correction tasks. DSAF uniquely incorporates adaptive elements in its design to ensure a flexible response to evolving weather conditions. Specifically, NWP downscaling and correction are well-decoupled in the framework and can be applied independently, which strategically guides the optimization trajectory of the model. Utilizing a multi-task learning mechanism and an uncertainty-weighted loss function, DSAF facilitates balanced training across various weather factors. Additionally, our specifically designed attention-centric learnable module effectively integrates geographic information, proficiently managing complex interrelationships. Experimental validation on the ECMWF operational forecast (HRES) and reanalysis (ERA5) archive demonstrates DSAF's superior performance over existing state-of-the-art models and shows substantial improvements when existing models are augmented using our proposed modules. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/pengwei07/DSAF.

Zongjiang Shang, Ling Chen, Binqing Wu et al.

Demystifying interactions between temporal patterns of different scales is fundamental to precise long-range time series forecasting. However, previous works lack the ability to model high-order interactions. To promote more comprehensive pattern interaction modeling for long-range time series forecasting, we propose a Multi-Scale Hypergraph Transformer (MSHyper) framework. Specifically, a multi-scale hypergraph is introduced to provide foundations for modeling high-order pattern interactions. Then by treating hyperedges as nodes, we also build a hyperedge graph to enhance hypergraph modeling. In addition, a tri-stage message passing mechanism is introduced to aggregate pattern information and learn the interaction strength between temporal patterns of different scales. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets demonstrate that MSHyper achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance across various settings.

Yingtao Luo, Shikai Fang, Binqing Wu et al. · cmu

Weather forecasting is essential but remains computationally intensive and physically incomplete in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods. Deep learning (DL) models offer efficiency and accuracy but often ignore physical laws, limiting interpretability and generalization. We propose PhyDL-NWP, a physics-guided deep learning framework that integrates physical equations with latent force parameterization into data-driven models. It predicts weather variables from arbitrary spatiotemporal coordinates, computes physical terms via automatic differentiation, and uses a physics-informed loss to align predictions with governing dynamics. PhyDL-NWP enables resolution-free downscaling by modeling weather as a continuous function and fine-tunes pre-trained models with minimal overhead, achieving up to 170x faster inference with only 55K parameters. Experiments show that PhyDL-NWP improves both forecasting performance and physical consistency.

Binqing Wu, Zongjiang Shang, Jianlong Huang et al.

Multi-variate time series (MTS) forecasting is crucial for various applications. Existing methods have shown promising results owing to their strong ability to capture intra- and inter-variate dependencies. However, these methods often overlook lead-lag dependencies at multiple grouping scales, failing to capture hierarchical lead-lag effects in complex systems. To this end, we propose MillGNN, a novel \underline{g}raph \underline{n}eural \underline{n}etwork-based method that learns \underline{m}ult\underline{i}ple grouping scale \underline{l}ead-\underline{l}ag dependencies for MTS forecasting, which can comprehensively capture lead-lag effects considering variate-wise and group-wise dynamics and decays. Specifically, MillGNN introduces two key innovations: (1) a scale-specific lead-lag graph learning module that integrates cross-correlation coefficients and dynamic decaying features derived from real-time inputs and time lags to learn lead-lag dependencies for each scale, which can model evolving lead-lag dependencies with statistical interpretability and data-driven flexibility; (2) a hierarchical lead-lag message passing module that passes lead-lag messages at multiple grouping scales in a structured way to simultaneously propagate intra- and inter-scale lead-lag effects, which can capture multi-scale lead-lag effects with a balance of comprehensiveness and efficiency. Experimental results on 11 datasets demonstrate the superiority of MillGNN for long-term and short-term MTS forecasting, compared with 16 state-of-the-art methods.

Binqing Wu, Jianlong Huang, Zongjiang Shang et al.

In multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting, many deep learning based methods have been proposed for modeling dependencies at multiple spatial (inter-variate) or temporal (intra-variate) scales. However, existing methods may fail to model dependencies across multiple spatial-temporal scales (ST-scales, i.e., scales that jointly consider spatial and temporal scopes). In this work, we propose ST-Hyper to model the high-order dependencies across multiple ST-scales through adaptive hypergraph modeling. Specifically, we introduce a Spatial-Temporal Pyramid Modeling (STPM) module to extract features at multiple ST-scales. Furthermore, we introduce an Adaptive Hypergraph Modeling (AHM) module that learns a sparse hypergraph to capture robust high-order dependencies among features. In addition, we interact with these features through tri-phase hypergraph propagation, which can comprehensively capture multi-scale spatial-temporal dynamics. Experimental results on six real-world MTS datasets demonstrate that ST-Hyper achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baselines with an average MAE reduction of 3.8\% and 6.8\% for long-term and short-term forecasting, respectively.

Ling Chen, Donghui Chen, Zongjiang Shang et al.

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting plays an important role in the automation and optimization of intelligent applications. It is a challenging task, as we need to consider both complex intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies. Existing works only learn temporal patterns with the help of single inter-variable dependencies. However, there are multi-scale temporal patterns in many real-world MTS. Single inter-variable dependencies make the model prefer to learn one type of prominent and shared temporal patterns. In this paper, we propose a multi-scale adaptive graph neural network (MAGNN) to address the above issue. MAGNN exploits a multi-scale pyramid network to preserve the underlying temporal dependencies at different time scales. Since the inter-variable dependencies may be different under distinct time scales, an adaptive graph learning module is designed to infer the scale-specific inter-variable dependencies without pre-defined priors. Given the multi-scale feature representations and scale-specific inter-variable dependencies, a multi-scale temporal graph neural network is introduced to jointly model intra-variable dependencies and inter-variable dependencies. After that, we develop a scale-wise fusion module to effectively promote the collaboration across different time scales, and automatically capture the importance of contributed temporal patterns. Experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that MAGNN outperforms the state-of-the-art methods across various settings.

Ling Chen, Weiqi Chen, Binqing Wu et al.

Time series forecasting is a significant problem in many applications, e.g., financial predictions and business optimization. Modern datasets can have multiple correlated time series, which are often generated with global (shared) regularities and local (specific) dynamics. In this paper, we seek to tackle such forecasting problems with DeepDGL, a deep forecasting model that disentangles dynamics into global and local temporal patterns. DeepDGL employs an encoder-decoder architecture, consisting of two encoders to learn global and local temporal patterns, respectively, and a decoder to make multi-step forecasting. Specifically, to model complicated global patterns, the vector quantization (VQ) module is introduced, allowing the global feature encoder to learn a shared codebook among all time series. To model diversified and heterogenous local patterns, an adaptive parameter generation module enhanced by the contrastive multi-horizon coding (CMC) is proposed to generate the parameters of the local feature encoder for each individual time series, which maximizes the mutual information between the series-specific context variable and the long/short-term representations of the corresponding time series. Our experiments on several real-world datasets show that DeepDGL outperforms existing state-of-the-art models.

Ling Chen, Jiahui Xu, Binqing Wu et al.

The problem of air pollution threatens public health. Air quality forecasting can provide the air quality index hours or even days later, which can help the public to prevent air pollution in advance. Previous works focus on citywide air quality forecasting and cannot solve nationwide city forecasting problem, whose difficulties lie in capturing the latent dependencies between geographically distant but highly correlated cities. In this paper, we propose the group-aware graph neural network (GAGNN), a hierarchical model for nationwide city air quality forecasting. The model constructs a city graph and a city group graph to model the spatial and latent dependencies between cities, respectively. GAGNN introduces differentiable grouping network to discover the latent dependencies among cities and generate city groups. Based on the generated city groups, a group correlation encoding module is introduced to learn the correlations between them, which can effectively capture the dependencies between city groups. After the graph construction, GAGNN implements message passing mechanism to model the dependencies between cities and city groups. The evaluation experiments on Chinese city air quality dataset indicate that our GAGNN outperforms existing forecasting models.