Mikołaj J. Kasprzak

Yu Wang, Mikołaj Kasprzak, Jonathan H. Huggins

Variational Inference (VI) is an attractive alternative to Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) due to its computational efficiency in the case of large datasets and/or complex models with high-dimensional parameters. However, evaluating the accuracy of variational approximations remains a challenge. Existing methods characterize the quality of the whole variational distribution, which is almost always poor in realistic applications, even if specific posterior functionals such as the component-wise means or variances are accurate. Hence, these diagnostics are of practical value only in limited circumstances. To address this issue, we propose the TArgeted Diagnostic for Distribution Approximation Accuracy (TADDAA), which uses many short parallel MCMC chains to obtain lower bounds on the error of each posterior functional of interest. We also develop a reliability check for TADDAA to determine when the lower bounds should not be trusted. Numerical experiments validate the practical utility and computational efficiency of our approach on a range of synthetic distributions and real-data examples, including sparse logistic regression and Bayesian neural network models.

Xiaoyu Wang, Mikolaj J. Kasprzak, Jeffrey Negrea et al.

Stochastic iterative algorithms, including stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), are widely utilized for optimization and sampling in large-scale and high-dimensional problems in machine learning, statistics, and engineering. Numerous works have bounded the parameter error in, and characterized the uncertainty of, these approximations. One common approach has been to use scaling limit analyses to relate the distribution of algorithm sample paths to a continuous-time stochastic process approximation, particularly in asymptotic setups. Focusing on the univariate setting, in this paper, we build on previous work to derive non-asymptotic functional approximation error bounds between the algorithm sample paths and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck approximation using an infinite-dimensional version of Stein's method of exchangeable pairs. We show that this bound implies weak convergence under modest additional assumptions and leads to a bound on the error of the variance of the iterate averages of the algorithm. Furthermore, we use our main result to construct error bounds in terms of two common metrics: the Lévy-Prokhorov and bounded Wasserstein distances. Our results provide a foundation for developing similar error bounds for the multivariate setting and for more sophisticated stochastic approximation algorithms.

Jonathan H. Huggins, Mikołaj Kasprzak, Trevor Campbell et al.

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of post-hoc accuracy measures that are both theoretically justified and computationally efficient. In this paper, we provide rigorous bounds on the error of posterior mean and uncertainty estimates that arise from full-distribution approximations, as in variational inference. Our bounds are widely applicable, as they require only that the approximating and exact posteriors have polynomial moments. Our bounds are also computationally efficient for variational inference because they require only standard values from variational objectives, straightforward analytic calculations, and simple Monte Carlo estimates. We show that our analysis naturally leads to a new and improved workflow for validated variational inference. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our proposed workflow and error bounds on a robust regression problem and on a real-data example with a widely used multilevel hierarchical model.

Jonathan H. Huggins, Trevor Campbell, Mikołaj Kasprzak et al.

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. Classical Monte Carlo methods, particularly Markov Chain Monte Carlo, remain the gold standard for approximate Bayesian inference because they have a robust finite-sample theory and reliable convergence diagnostics. However, alternative methods, which are more scalable or apply to problems where Markov Chain Monte Carlo cannot be used, lack the same finite-data approximation theory and tools for evaluating their accuracy. In this work, we develop a flexible new approach to bounding the error of mean and uncertainty estimates of scalable inference algorithms. Our strategy is to control the estimation errors in terms of Wasserstein distance, then bound the Wasserstein distance via a generalized notion of Fisher distance. Unlike computing the Wasserstein distance, which requires access to the normalized posterior distribution, the Fisher distance is tractable to compute because it requires access only to the gradient of the log posterior density. We demonstrate the usefulness of our Fisher distance approach by deriving bounds on the Wasserstein error of the Laplace approximation and Hilbert coresets. We anticipate that our approach will be applicable to many other approximate inference methods such as the integrated Laplace approximation, variational inference, and approximate Bayesian computation

Jonathan H. Huggins, Trevor Campbell, Mikołaj Kasprzak et al.

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an approach to scalable approximate GP regression with finite-data guarantees on the accuracy of pointwise posterior mean and variance estimates. Our main contribution is a novel objective for approximate inference in the nonparametric setting: the preconditioned Fisher (pF) divergence. We show that unlike the Kullback--Leibler divergence (used in variational inference), the pF divergence bounds the 2-Wasserstein distance, which in turn provides tight bounds the pointwise difference of the mean and variance functions. We demonstrate that, for sparse GP likelihood approximations, we can minimize the pF divergence efficiently. Our experiments show that optimizing the pF divergence has the same computational requirements as variational sparse GPs while providing comparable empirical performance--in addition to our novel finite-data quality guarantees.