Fabio Massimo Zennaro

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Máté Drávucz, Geanina Apachitei et al.

An abstraction can be used to relate two structural causal models representing the same system at different levels of resolution. Learning abstractions which guarantee consistency with respect to interventional distributions would allow one to jointly reason about evidence across multiple levels of granularity while respecting the underlying cause-effect relationships. In this paper, we introduce a first framework for causal abstraction learning between SCMs based on the formalization of abstraction recently proposed by Rischel (2020). Based on that, we propose a differentiable programming solution that jointly solves a number of combinatorial sub-problems, and we study its performance and benefits against independent and sequential approaches on synthetic settings and on a challenging real-world problem related to electric vehicle battery manufacturing.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Paolo Turrini, Theodoros Damoulas

Working with causal models at different levels of abstraction is an important feature of science. Existing work has already considered the problem of expressing formally the relation of abstraction between causal models. In this paper, we focus on the problem of learning abstractions. We start by defining the learning problem formally in terms of the optimization of a standard measure of consistency. We then point out the limitation of this approach, and we suggest extending the objective function with a term accounting for information loss. We suggest a concrete measure of information loss, and we illustrate its contribution to learning new abstractions.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro

Structural causal models (SCMs) are a widespread formalism to deal with causal systems. A recent direction of research has considered the problem of relating formally SCMs at different levels of abstraction, by defining maps between SCMs and imposing a requirement of interventional consistency. This paper offers a review of the solutions proposed so far, focusing on the formal properties of a map between SCMs, and highlighting the different layers (structural, distributional) at which these properties may be enforced. This allows us to distinguish families of abstractions that may or may not be permitted by choosing to guarantee certain properties instead of others. Such an understanding not only allows to distinguish among proposal for causal abstraction with more awareness, but it also allows to tailor the definition of abstraction with respect to the forms of abstraction relevant to specific applications.

Dario Compagno, Fabio Massimo Zennaro

Structural causal models (SCMs) were conceived to formulate and answer causal questions. This paper shows that SCMs can also be used to formulate and answer teleological questions, concerning the intentions of a state-aware, goal-directed agent intervening in a causal system. We review limitations of previous approaches to modeling such agents, and then introduce intentional interventions, a new time-agnostic operator that induces a twin SCM we call a structural final model (SFM). SFMs treat observed values as the outcome of intentional interventions and relate them to the counterfactual conditions of those interventions (what would have happened had the agent not intervened). We show how SFMs can be used to empirically detect agents and to discover their intentions.

Willem Schooltink, Fabio Massimo Zennaro

Abstractions of causal models allow for the coarsening of models such that relations of cause and effect are preserved. Whereas abstractions focus on the relation between two models, in this paper we study a framework for causal embeddings which enable multiple detailed models to be mapped into sub-systems of a coarser causal model. We define causal embeddings as a generalization of abstraction, and present a generalized notion of consistency. By defining a multi-resolution marginal problem, we showcase the relevance of causal embeddings for both the statistical marginal problem and the causal marginal problem; furthermore, we illustrate its practical use in merging datasets coming from models with different representations.

Yorgos Felekis, Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Nicola Branchini et al.

Causal abstraction (CA) theory establishes formal criteria for relating multiple structural causal models (SCMs) at different levels of granularity by defining maps between them. These maps have significant relevance for real-world challenges such as synthesizing causal evidence from multiple experimental environments, learning causally consistent representations at different resolutions, and linking interventions across multiple SCMs. In this work, we propose COTA, the first method to learn abstraction maps from observational and interventional data without assuming complete knowledge of the underlying SCMs. In particular, we introduce a multi-marginal Optimal Transport (OT) formulation that enforces do-calculus causal constraints, together with a cost function that relies on interventional information. We extensively evaluate COTA on synthetic and real world problems, and showcase its advantages over non-causal, independent and aggregated COTA formulations. Finally, we demonstrate the efficiency of our method as a data augmentation tool by comparing it against the state-of-the-art CA learning framework, which assumes fully specified SCMs, on a real-world downstream task.

Joel Dyer, Nicholas Bishop, Yorgos Felekis et al.

Agent-based simulators provide granular representations of complex intelligent systems by directly modelling the interactions of the system's constituent agents. Their high-fidelity nature enables hyper-local policy evaluation and testing of what-if scenarios, but is associated with large computational costs that inhibits their widespread use. Surrogate models can address these computational limitations, but they must behave consistently with the agent-based model under policy interventions of interest. In this paper, we capitalise on recent developments on causal abstractions to develop a framework for learning interventionally consistent surrogate models for agent-based simulators. Our proposed approach facilitates rapid experimentation with policy interventions in complex systems, while inducing surrogates to behave consistently with high probability with respect to the agent-based simulator across interventions of interest. We demonstrate with empirical studies that observationally trained surrogates can misjudge the effect of interventions and misguide policymakers towards suboptimal policies, while surrogates trained for interventional consistency with our proposed method closely mimic the behaviour of an agent-based model under interventions of interest.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Nicholas Bishop, Joel Dyer et al.

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) and causal MABs (CMAB) are established frameworks for decision-making problems. The majority of prior work typically studies and solves individual MAB and CMAB in isolation for a given problem and associated data. However, decision-makers are often faced with multiple related problems and multi-scale observations where joint formulations are needed in order to efficiently exploit the problem structures and data dependencies. Transfer learning for CMABs addresses the situation where models are defined on identical variables, although causal connections may differ. In this work, we extend transfer learning to setups involving CMABs defined on potentially different variables, with varying degrees of granularity, and related via an abstraction map. Formally, we introduce the problem of causally abstracted MABs (CAMABs) by relying on the theory of causal abstraction in order to express a rigorous abstraction map. We propose algorithms to learn in a CAMAB, and study their regret. We illustrate the limitations and the strengths of our algorithms on a real-world scenario related to online advertising.

Willem Schooltink, Fabio Massimo Zennaro

Causal abstractions allow us to relate causal models on different levels of granularity. To ensure that the models agree on cause and effect, frameworks for causal abstractions define notions of consistency. Two distinct methods for causal abstraction are common in the literature: (i) graphical abstractions, such as Cluster DAGs, which relate models on a structural level, and (ii) functional abstractions, like $α$-abstractions, which relate models by maps between variables and their ranges. In this paper we will align the notions of graphical and functional consistency and show an equivalence between the class of Cluster DAGs, consistent $α$-abstractions with the range of abstracted variables mapped bijectively, and constructive $τ$-abstractions. Furthermore, we extend this alignment and the expressivity of graphical abstractions by introducing Partial Cluster DAGs. Our results provide a rigorous bridge between the functional and graphical frameworks and allow for adoption and transfer of results between them.

Gabriele D'Acunto, Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Yorgos Felekis et al.

Structural causal models (SCMs) allow us to investigate complex systems at multiple levels of resolution. The causal abstraction (CA) framework formalizes the mapping between high- and low-level SCMs. We address CA learning in a challenging and realistic setting, where SCMs are inaccessible, interventional data is unavailable, and sample data is misaligned. A key principle of our framework is semantic embedding, formalized as the high-level distribution lying on a subspace of the low-level one. This principle naturally links linear CA to the geometry of the Stiefel manifold. We present a category-theoretic approach to SCMs that enables the learning of a CA by finding a morphism between the low- and high-level probability measures, adhering to the semantic embedding principle. Consequently, we formulate a general CA learning problem. As an application, we solve the latter problem for linear CA; considering Gaussian measures and the Kullback-Leibler divergence as an objective. Given the nonconvexity of the learning task, we develop three algorithms building upon existing paradigms for Riemannian optimization. We demonstrate that the proposed methods succeed on both synthetic and real-world brain data with different degrees of prior information about the structure of CA.

Joel Dyer, Nicholas Bishop, Anisoara Calinescu et al.

Although real-world decision-making problems can often be encoded as causal multi-armed bandits (CMABs) at different levels of abstraction, a general methodology exploiting the information and computational advantages of each abstraction level is missing. In this paper, we propose AT-UCB, an algorithm which efficiently exploits shared information between CMAB problem instances defined at different levels of abstraction. More specifically, AT-UCB leverages causal abstraction (CA) theory to explore within a cheap-to-simulate and coarse-grained CMAB instance, before employing the traditional upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm on a restricted set of potentially optimal actions in the CMAB of interest, leading to significant reductions in cumulative regret when compared to the classical UCB algorithm. We illustrate the advantages of AT-UCB theoretically, through a novel upper bound on the cumulative regret, and empirically, by applying AT-UCB to epidemiological simulators with varying resolution and computational cost.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Paolo Turrini, Theodoros Damoulas

Structural causal models provide a formalism to express causal relations between variables of interest. Models and variables can represent a system at different levels of abstraction, whereby relations may be coarsened and refined according to the need of a modeller. However, switching between different levels of abstraction requires evaluating a trade-off between the consistency and the information loss among different models. In this paper we introduce a family of interventional measures that an agent may use to evaluate such a trade-off. We consider four measures suited for different tasks, analyze their properties, and propose algorithms to evaluate and learn causal abstractions. Finally, we illustrate the flexibility of our setup by empirically showing how different measures and algorithmic choices may lead to different abstractions.

Laszlo Erdodi, Åvald Åslaugson Sommervoll, Fabio Massimo Zennaro

In this paper, we propose a formalization of the process of exploitation of SQL injection vulnerabilities. We consider a simplification of the dynamics of SQL injection attacks by casting this problem as a security capture-the-flag challenge. We model it as a Markov decision process, and we implement it as a reinforcement learning problem. We then deploy reinforcement learning agents tasked with learning an effective policy to perform SQL injection; we design our training in such a way that the agent learns not just a specific strategy to solve an individual challenge but a more generic policy that may be applied to perform SQL injection attacks against any system instantiated randomly by our problem generator. We analyze the results in terms of the quality of the learned policy and in terms of convergence time as a function of the complexity of the challenge and the learning agent's complexity. Our work fits in the wider research on the development of intelligent agents for autonomous penetration testing and white-hat hacking, and our results aim to contribute to understanding the potential and the limits of reinforcement learning in a security environment.

William Arild Dahl, Laszlo Erdodi, Fabio Massimo Zennaro

Detecting vulnerabilities in software is a critical challenge in the development and deployment of applications. One of the most known and dangerous vulnerabilities is stack-based buffer overflows, which may allow potential attackers to execute malicious code. In this paper we consider the use of modern machine learning models, specifically recurrent neural networks, to detect stack-based buffer overflow vulnerabilities in the assembly code of a program. Since assembly code is a generic and common representation, focusing on this language allows us to potentially consider programs written in several different programming languages. Moreover, we subscribe to the hypothesis that code may be treated as natural language, and thus we process assembly code using standard architectures commonly employed in natural language processing. We perform a set of experiments aimed at confirming the validity of the natural language hypothesis and the feasibility of using recurrent neural networks for detecting vulnerabilities. Our results show that our architecture is able to capture subtle stack-based buffer overflow vulnerabilities that strongly depend on the context, thus suggesting that this approach may be extended to real-world setting, as well as to other forms of vulnerability detection.

Alexander Egiazarov, Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Vasileios Mavroeidis

Threat detection of weapons and aggressive behavior from live video can be used for rapid detection and prevention of potentially deadly incidents such as terrorism, general criminal offences, or even domestic violence. One way for achieving this is through the use of artificial intelligence and, in particular, machine learning for image analysis. In this paper we conduct a comparison between a traditional monolithic end-to-end deep learning model and a previously proposed model based on an ensemble of simpler neural networks detecting fire-weapons via semantic segmentation. We evaluated both models from different points of view, including accuracy, computational and data complexity, flexibility and reliability. Our results show that a semantic segmentation model provides considerable amount of flexibility and resilience in the low data environment compared to classical deep model models, although its configuration and tuning presents a challenge in achieving the same levels of accuracy as an end-to-end model.

Laszlo Erdodi, Fabio Massimo Zennaro

Website hacking is a frequent attack type used by malicious actors to obtain confidential information, modify the integrity of web pages or make websites unavailable. The tools used by attackers are becoming more and more automated and sophisticated, and malicious machine learning agents seems to be the next development in this line. In order to provide ethical hackers with similar tools, and to understand the impact and the limitations of artificial agents, we present in this paper a model that formalizes web hacking tasks for reinforcement learning agents. Our model, named Agent Web Model, considers web hacking as a capture-the-flag style challenge, and it defines reinforcement learning problems at seven different levels of abstraction. We discuss the complexity of these problems in terms of actions and states an agent has to deal with, and we show that such a model allows to represent most of the relevant web vulnerabilities. Aware that the driver of advances in reinforcement learning is the availability of standardized challenges, we provide an implementation for the first three abstraction layers, in the hope that the community would consider these challenges in order to develop intelligent web hacking agents.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Audun Jøsang

The multi-armed bandit problem is a classical decision-making problem where an agent has to learn an optimal action balancing exploration and exploitation. Properly managing this trade-off requires a correct assessment of uncertainty; in multi-armed bandits, as in other machine learning applications, it is important to distinguish between stochasticity that is inherent to the system (aleatoric uncertainty) and stochasticity that derives from the limited knowledge of the agent (epistemic uncertainty). In this paper we consider the formalism of subjective logic, a concise and expressive framework to express Dirichlet-multinomial models as subjective opinions, and we apply it to the problem of multi-armed bandits. We propose new algorithms grounded in subjective logic to tackle the multi-armed bandit problem, we compare them against classical algorithms from the literature, and we analyze the insights they provide in evaluating the dynamics of uncertainty. Our preliminary results suggest that subjective logic quantities enable useful assessment of uncertainty that may be exploited by more refined agents.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Laszlo Erdodi

Penetration testing is a security exercise aimed at assessing the security of a system by simulating attacks against it. So far, penetration testing has been carried out mainly by trained human attackers and its success critically depended on the available expertise. Automating this practice constitutes a non-trivial problem, as the range of actions that a human expert may attempts against a system and the range of knowledge she relies on to take her decisions are hard to capture. In this paper, we focus our attention on simplified penetration testing problems expressed in the form of capture the flag hacking challenges, and we analyze how model-free reinforcement learning algorithms may help to solve them. In modeling these capture the flag competitions as reinforcement learning problems we highlight that a specific challenge that characterize penetration testing is the problem of discovering the structure of the problem at hand. We then show how this challenge may be eased by relying on different forms of prior knowledge that may be provided to the agent. In this way we demonstrate how the feasibility of tackling penetration testing using reinforcement learning may rest on a careful trade-off between model-free and model-based algorithms. By using techniques to inject a priori knowledge, we show it is possible to better direct the agent and restrict the space of its exploration problem, thus achieving solutions more efficiently.

Alexander Egiazarov, Vasileios Mavroeidis, Fabio Massimo Zennaro et al.

In recent years we have seen an upsurge in terror attacks around the world. Such attacks usually happen in public places with large crowds to cause the most damage possible and get the most attention. Even though surveillance cameras are assumed to be a powerful tool, their effect in preventing crime is far from clear due to either limitation in the ability of humans to vigilantly monitor video surveillance or for the simple reason that they are operating passively. In this paper, we present a weapon detection system based on an ensemble of semantic Convolutional Neural Networks that decomposes the problem of detecting and locating a weapon into a set of smaller problems concerned with the individual component parts of a weapon. This approach has computational and practical advantages: a set of simpler neural networks dedicated to specific tasks requires less computational resources and can be trained in parallel; the overall output of the system given by the aggregation of the outputs of individual networks can be tuned by a user to trade-off false positives and false negatives; finally, according to ensemble theory, the output of the overall system will be robust and reliable even in the presence of weak individual models. We evaluated our system running simulations aimed at assessing the accuracy of individual networks and the whole system. The results on synthetic data and real-world data are promising, and they suggest that our approach may have advantages compared to the monolithic approach based on a single deep convolutional neural network.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Ke Chen

In this paper we examine a formalization of feature distribution learning (FDL) in information-theoretic terms relying on the analytical approach and on the tools already used in the study of the information bottleneck (IB). It has been conjectured that the behavior of FDL algorithms could be expressed as an optimization problem over two information-theoretic quantities: the mutual information of the data with the learned representations and the entropy of the learned distribution. In particular, such a formulation was offered in order to explain the success of the most prominent FDL algorithm, sparse filtering (SF). This conjecture was, however, left unproven. In this work, we aim at providing preliminary empirical support to this conjecture by performing experiments reminiscent of the work done on deep neural networks in the context of the IB research. Specifically, we borrow the idea of using information planes to analyze the behavior of the SF algorithm and gain insights on its dynamics. A confirmation of the conjecture about the dynamics of FDL may provide solid ground to develop information-theoretic tools to assess the quality of the learning process in FDL, and it may be extended to other unsupervised learning algorithms.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro

In this paper we offer a preliminary study of the application of Bayesian coresets to network security data. Network intrusion detection is a field that could take advantage of Bayesian machine learning in modelling uncertainty and managing streaming data; however, the large size of the data sets often hinders the use of Bayesian learning methods based on MCMC. Limiting the amount of useful data is a central problem in a field like network traffic analysis, where large amount of redundant data can be generated very quickly via packet collection. Reducing the number of samples would not only make learning more feasible, but would also contribute to reduce the need for memory and storage. We explore here the use of Bayesian coresets, a technique that reduces the amount of data samples while guaranteeing the learning of an accurate posterior distribution using Bayesian learning. We analyze how Bayesian coresets affect the accuracy of learned models, and how time-space requirements are traded-off, both in a static scenario and in a streaming scenario.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Magdalena Ivanovska

In this paper we study the problem of making predictions using multiple structural casual models defined by different agents, under the constraint that the prediction satisfies the criterion of counterfactual fairness. Relying on the frameworks of causality, fairness and opinion pooling, we build upon and extend previous work focusing on the qualitative aggregation of causal Bayesian networks and causal models. In order to complement previous qualitative results, we devise a method based on Monte Carlo simulations. This method enables a decision-maker to aggregate the outputs of the causal models provided by different experts while guaranteeing the counterfactual fairness of the result. We demonstrate our approach on a simple, yet illustrative, toy case study.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Magdalena Ivanovska

In this paper we consider the problem of combining multiple probabilistic causal models, provided by different experts, under the requirement that the aggregated model satisfy the criterion of counterfactual fairness. We build upon the work on causal models and fairness in machine learning, and we express the problem of combining multiple models within the framework of opinion pooling. We propose two simple algorithms, grounded in the theory of counterfactual fairness and causal judgment aggregation, that are guaranteed to generate aggregated probabilistic causal models respecting the criterion of fairness, and we compare their behaviors on a toy case study.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Ke Chen

In this paper we formally analyse the use of sparse filtering algorithms to perform covariate shift adaptation. We provide a theoretical analysis of sparse filtering by evaluating the conditions required to perform covariate shift adaptation. We prove that sparse filtering can perform adaptation only if the conditional distribution of the labels has a structure explained by a cosine metric. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new algorithm, named periodic sparse filtering, and carry out the same theoretical analysis regarding covariate shift adaptation. We show that periodic sparse filtering can perform adaptation under the looser and more realistic requirement that the conditional distribution of the labels has a periodic structure, which may be satisfied, for instance, by user-dependent data sets. We experimentally validate our theoretical results on synthetic data. Moreover, we apply periodic sparse filtering to real-world data sets to demonstrate that this simple and computationally efficient algorithm is able to achieve competitive performances.

Fabio Massimo Zennaro, Ke Chen

In this paper we present a theoretical analysis to understand sparse filtering, a recent and effective algorithm for unsupervised learning. The aim of this research is not to show whether or how well sparse filtering works, but to understand why and when sparse filtering does work. We provide a thorough theoretical analysis of sparse filtering and its properties, and further offer an experimental validation of the main outcomes of our theoretical analysis. We show that sparse filtering works by explicitly maximizing the entropy of the learned representation through the maximization of the proxy of sparsity, and by implicitly preserving mutual information between original and learned representations through the constraint of preserving a structure of the data, specifically the structure defined by relations of neighborhoodness under the cosine distance. Furthermore, we empirically validate our theoretical results with artificial and real data sets, and we apply our theoretical understanding to explain the success of sparse filtering on real-world problems. Our work provides a strong theoretical basis for understanding sparse filtering: it highlights assumptions and conditions for success behind this feature distribution learning algorithm, and provides insights for developing new feature distribution learning algorithms.