Kaijun Ren

Wuxin Wang, Weicheng Ni, Ben Fei et al.

Research on Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Data Assimilation (DA) is expanding rapidly. However, the absence of an objective, comprehensive, and real-world benchmark hinders the fair comparison of diverse methods. Here, we introduce DABench, a benchmark designed for contributing to the development and evaluation of AI-based DA methods. By integrating real-world observations, DABench provides an objective and fair platform for validating long-term closed-loop DA cycles, supporting both deterministic and ensemble configurations. Furthermore, we assess the efficacy of AI-based DA in generating initial conditions for the advanced AI-based weather forecasting model to produce accurate medium-range global weather forecasting. Our dual-validation, utilizing both reanalysis data and independent radiosonde observations, demonstrates that AI-based DA achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art AI-driven four-dimensional variational frameworks across both global weather DA and medium-range forecasting metrics. We invite the research community to utilize DABench to accelerate the advancement of AI-based DA for global weather forecasting.

Jingnan Wang, Jie Chao, Shangshang Yang et al.

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these requirements, introducing challenges of scale inconsistency, process representation error, computation cost, and entanglement of distinct uncertainty sources from chaoticity, model bias, and large-scale forcing. We address these challenges by learning the climatological distribution of a target wind farm using its high-resolution numerical weather simulations. An optimal combination of this learned high-resolution climatological prior with coarse-grid large scale forecasts yields highly accurate, fine-grained, full-variable, large ensemble of weather pattern forecasts. Using observed meteorological records and wind turbine power outputs as references, the proposed methodology verifies advantageously compared to existing numerical/statistical forecasting-downscaling pipelines, regarding either deterministic/probabilistic skills or economic gains. Moreover, a 100-member, 10-day forecast with spatial resolution of 1 km and output frequency of 15 min takes < 1 hour on a moderate-end GPU, as contrast to $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ CPU hours for conventional numerical simulation. By drastically reducing computational costs while maintaining accuracy, our method paves the way for more efficient and reliable renewable energy planning and operation.