11.2CYApr 23
Mathematical Modelling of Ethical AI Use in Higher Education: A Coordination Game Framework for Future-Facing LearningNdidi Bianca Ogbo, Zhao Song, Shatha Ghareeb et al.
The rapid uptake of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in higher education is reshaping assessment practices and intensifying concerns around academic integrity, fairness, and learning quality. While institutional responses increasingly emphasise policy guidance and ethical principles, there remains limited formal understanding of how collective norms of responsible or opportunistic AI use emerge and stabilise within student cohorts. This paper reframes student AI use in assessment as a coordination problem shaped by peer expectations and assessment design rather than individual compliance alone. We develop a coordination-based evolutionary game-theoretic framework that captures learning value, effort, perceived fairness, and transparency, with institutional AI governance modelled implicitly through reflective assessment incentives. We use analytical results and finite-population simulations to reveal threshold-driven behavioural transitions in student AI use: small, well-calibrated changes in reflective assessment incentives can trigger rapid shifts towards responsible, learning-oriented AI-use norms, whereas weak or misaligned incentives allow opportunistic practices to persist. These non-linear dynamics explain why policy statements alone often fail to change behaviour, while modest assessment redesigns can have disproportionate effects. By providing a mechanism-level account of how assessment structures shape collective AI-use practices, this work offers higher education institutions an analytically grounded tool for Future Facing Learning, supporting proportionate, pedagogy-led AI governance without reliance on surveillance or punitive enforcement.
QMSep 3, 2025
Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) in Campylobacter, a Foodborne Pathogen, and Cost Burden Analysis Using Machine LearningShubham Mishra, The Anh Han, Bruno Silvester Lopes et al.
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a significant public health and economic challenge, increasing treatment costs and reducing antibiotic effectiveness. This study employs machine learning to analyze genomic and epidemiological data from the public databases for molecular typing and microbial genome diversity (PubMLST), incorporating data from UK government-supported AMR surveillance by the Food Standards Agency and Food Standards Scotland. We identify AMR patterns in Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli isolates collected in the UK from 2001 to 2017. The research integrates whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data, epidemiological metadata, and economic projections to identify key resistance determinants and forecast future resistance trends and healthcare costs. We investigate gyrA mutations for fluoroquinolone resistance and the tet(O) gene for tetracycline resistance, training a Random Forest model validated with bootstrap resampling (1,000 samples, 95% confidence intervals), achieving 74% accuracy in predicting AMR phenotypes. Time-series forecasting models (SARIMA, SIR, and Prophet) predict a rise in campylobacteriosis cases, potentially exceeding 130 cases per 100,000 people by 2050, with an economic burden projected to surpass 1.9 billion GBP annually if left unchecked. An enhanced Random Forest system, analyzing 6,683 isolates, refines predictions by incorporating temporal patterns, uncertainty estimation, and resistance trend modeling, indicating sustained high beta-lactam resistance, increasing fluoroquinolone resistance, and fluctuating tetracycline resistance.