Rafal Angryk

Reza Mansouri, Dustin Kempton, Pete Riley et al.

The solar wind, a continuous stream of charged particles from the Sun's corona, shapes the heliosphere and impacts space systems near Earth. Variations such as high-speed streams and coronal mass ejections can disrupt satellites, power grids, and communications, making accurate modeling essential for space weather forecasting. While 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are used to simulate and investigate these variations in the solar wind, they tend to be computationally expensive, limiting their usefulness in investigating the impacts of boundary condition uncertainty. In this work, we develop a surrogate for steady state solar wind modeling, using a Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO). We compare our model to a previously developed numerical surrogate for this task called HUX, and we show that the SFNO achieves comparable or better performance across several metrics. Though HUX retains advantages in physical smoothness, this underscores the need for improved evaluation criteria rather than a flaw in SFNO. As a flexible and trainable approach, SFNO enables efficient real-time forecasting and can improve with more data. The source code and more visual results are available at https://github.com/rezmansouri/solarwind-sfno-velocity.

Reza Mansouri, Dustin Kempton, Pete Riley et al.

The solar wind, a continuous outflow of charged particles from the Sun's corona, shapes the heliosphere and impacts space systems near Earth. Accurate prediction of features such as high-speed streams and coronal mass ejections is critical for space weather forecasting, but traditional three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models are computationally expensive, limiting rapid exploration of boundary condition uncertainties. We introduce the first autoregressive machine learning surrogate for steady-state solar wind radial velocity using the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO). By predicting a limited radial range and iteratively propagating the solution outward, the model improves accuracy in distant regions compared to a single-step approach. Compared with the numerical HUX surrogate, SFNO demonstrates superior or comparable performance while providing a flexible, trainable, and data-driven alternative, establishing a novel methodology for high-fidelity solar wind modeling. The source code and additional visual results are available at https://github.com/rezmansouri/solarwind-sfno-velocity-autoregressive.

Victor Solomon, Piet Martens, Jingyu Liu et al.

Accurate segmentation of solar filaments in H-alpha observations is critical for determining filament chirality, a key factor in the behavior of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). However, existing methods often fail to capture fine-scale filament structures, particularly barbs, due to a limited ability to model long-range dependencies and spatial detail. We propose EdgeAttNet, a segmentation architecture built on a U-Net backbone by introducing a novel, learnable edge map derived directly from the input image. This edge map is incorporated into the model by linearly transforming the attention Key and Query matrices with the edge information, thereby guiding the self-attention mechanism at the network's bottleneck to more effectively capture filament boundaries and barbs. By explicitly integrating this structural prior into the attention computations, EdgeAttNet enhances spatial sensitivity and segmentation accuracy while reducing the number of trainable parameters. Trained end-to-end, EdgeAttNet outperforms U-Net and other U-Net-based transformer baselines on the MAGFILO dataset. It achieves higher segmentation accuracy and significantly better recognition of filament barbs, with faster inference performance suitable for practical deployment.

Anli Ji, Berkay Aydin, Manolis K. Georgoulis et al.

An all-clear flare prediction is a type of solar flare forecasting that puts more emphasis on predicting non-flaring instances (often relatively small flares and flare quiet regions) with high precision while still maintaining valuable predictive results. While many flare prediction studies do not address this problem directly, all-clear predictions can be useful in operational context. However, in all-clear predictions, finding the right balance between avoiding false negatives (misses) and reducing the false positives (false alarms) is often challenging. Our study focuses on training and testing a set of interval-based time series classifiers named Time Series Forest (TSF). These classifiers will be used towards building an all-clear flare prediction system by utilizing multivariate time series data. Throughout this paper, we demonstrate our data collection, predictive model building and evaluation processes, and compare our time series classification models with baselines using our benchmark datasets. Our results show that time series classifiers provide better forecasting results in terms of skill scores, precision and recall metrics, and they can be further improved for more precise all-clear forecasts by tuning model hyperparameters.

Gelu Nita, Manolis Georgoulis, Irina Kitiashvili et al.

The authors of this white paper met on 16-17 January 2020 at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ, for a 2-day workshop that brought together a group of heliophysicists, data providers, expert modelers, and computer/data scientists. Their objective was to discuss critical developments and prospects of the application of machine and/or deep learning techniques for data analysis, modeling and forecasting in Heliophysics, and to shape a strategy for further developments in the field. The workshop combined a set of plenary sessions featuring invited introductory talks interleaved with a set of open discussion sessions. The outcome of the discussion is encapsulated in this white paper that also features a top-level list of recommendations agreed by participants.