Ronald Pelot

Gabriel Spadon, Jay Kumar, Derek Eden et al.

This paper addresses the challenge of boosting the precision of multi-path long-term vessel trajectory forecasting on engineered sequences of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data using feature fusion for problem shifting. We have developed a deep auto-encoder model and a phased framework approach to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. To this end, we fuse the spatiotemporal features from the AIS messages with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data referring to potential routes and destinations. As a result, we reduce the forecasting uncertainty by shifting the problem into a trajectory reconstruction problem. The probabilistic features have an F1-Score of approximately 85% and 75% for the vessel route and destination prediction, respectively. Under such circumstances, we achieved an R2 Score of over 98% with different layer structures and varying feature combinations; the high R2 Score is a natural outcome of the well-defined shipping lanes in the study region. However, our proposal stands out among competing approaches as it demonstrates the capability of complex decision-making during turnings and route selection. Furthermore, we have shown that our model achieves more accurate forecasting with average and median errors of 11km and 6km, respectively, a 25% improvement from the current state-of-the-art approaches. The resulting model from this proposal is deployed as part of a broader Decision Support System to safeguard whales by preventing the risk of vessel-whale collisions under the smartWhales initiative and acting on the Gulf of St. Lawrence in Atlantic Canada.

Ruixin Song, Gabriel Spadon, Ronald Pelot et al.

Aquatic non-indigenous species (NIS) pose significant threats to biodiversity, disrupting ecosystems and inflicting substantial economic damages across agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Due to the fast growth of global trade and transportation networks, NIS has been introduced and spread unintentionally in new environments. This study develops a new physics-informed model to forecast maritime shipping traffic between port regions worldwide. The predicted information provided by these models, in turn, is used as input for risk assessment of NIS spread through transportation networks to evaluate the capability of our solution. Inspired by the gravity model for international trades, our model considers various factors that influence the likelihood and impact of vessel activities, such as shipping flux density, distance between ports, trade flow, and centrality measures of transportation hubs. Accordingly, this paper introduces transformers to gravity models to rebuild the short- and long-term dependencies that make the risk analysis feasible. Thus, we introduce a physics-inspired framework that achieves an 89% binary accuracy for existing and non-existing trajectories and an 84.8% accuracy for the number of vessels flowing between key port areas, representing more than 10% improvement over the traditional deep-gravity model. Along these lines, this research contributes to a better understanding of NIS risk assessment. It allows policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders to prioritize management actions by identifying high-risk invasion pathways. Besides, our model is versatile and can include new data sources, making it suitable for assessing international vessel traffic flow in a changing global landscape.

Gabriel Spadon, Oladapo Oyebode, Camilo M. Botero et al.

This paper presents an overview of a human-centered initiative aimed at strengthening climate resilience along Nova Scotia's Eastern Shore. This region, a collection of rural villages with deep ties to the sea, faces existential threats from climate change that endanger its way of life. Our project moves beyond a purely technical response, weaving together expertise from Computer Science, Industrial Engineering, and Coastal Geography to co-create tools with the community. By integrating generational knowledge of residents, particularly elders, through the Eastern Shore Citizen Science Coastal Monitoring Network, this project aims to collaborate in building a living digital archive. This effort is hosted under Dalhousie University's Transforming Climate Action (TCA) initiative, specifically through its Transformative Adaptations to Social-Ecological Climate Change Trajectories (TranSECT) and TCA Artificial Intelligence (TCA-AI) projects. This work is driven by a collaboration model in which student teams work directly with residents. We present a detailed project timeline and a replicable model for how technology can support traditional communities, enabling them to navigate climate transformation more effectively.