Feng Zhou

Zeyue Zhang, Xiaoling Lu, Feng Zhou

The Bayesian two-step change point detection method is popular for the Hawkes process due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, the non-conjugacy between the point process likelihood and the prior requires most existing Bayesian two-step change point detection methods to rely on non-conjugate inference methods. These methods lack analytical expressions, leading to low computational efficiency and impeding timely change point detection. To address this issue, this work employs data augmentation to propose a conjugate Bayesian two-step change point detection method for the Hawkes process, which proves to be more accurate and efficient. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real data demonstrate the superior effectiveness and efficiency of our method compared to baseline methods. Additionally, we conduct ablation studies to explore the robustness of our method concerning various hyperparameters. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Aurora2050/CoBay-CPD.

Shukai Gong, Yiyang Fu, Fengyuan Ran et al.

We propose TPP-SD, a novel approach that accelerates Transformer temporal point process (TPP) sampling by adapting speculative decoding (SD) techniques from language models. By identifying the structural similarities between thinning algorithms for TPPs and speculative decoding for language models, we develop an efficient sampling framework that leverages a smaller draft model to generate multiple candidate events, which are then verified by the larger target model in parallel. TPP-SD maintains the same output distribution as autoregressive sampling while achieving significant acceleration. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approach produces samples from identical distributions as standard methods, but with 2-6$\times$ speedup. Our ablation studies analyze the impact of hyperparameters such as draft length and draft model size on sampling efficiency. TPP-SD bridges the gap between powerful Transformer TPP models and the practical need for rapid sequence sampling.