Yevhen Havrylenko

Yevhen Havrylenko, Julia Heger

The quality of generalized linear models (GLMs), frequently used by insurance companies, depends on the choice of interacting variables. The search for interactions is time-consuming, especially for data sets with a large number of variables, depends much on expert judgement of actuaries, and often relies on visual performance indicators. Therefore, we present an approach to automating the process of finding interactions that should be added to GLMs to improve their predictive power. Our approach relies on neural networks and a model-specific interaction detection method, which is computationally faster than the traditionally used methods like Friedman H-Statistic or SHAP values. In numerical studies, we provide the results of our approach on artificially generated data as well as open-source data.

Yevhen Havrylenko, Meelis Käärik, Artur Tuttar

Actuarial ratemaking depends on high-quality data, yet access to such data is often limited by the cost of obtaining new data, privacy concerns, etc. In this paper, we explore synthetic-data generation as a potential solution to these issues. In addition to discussing generative methods previously studied in the actuarial literature, we introduce to the insurance community another approach based on Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE). We present a comparative study using an open-source dataset and evaluating MICE-based models against other generative models like Variational Autoencoders and Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Networks. We assess how well synthetic data preserves the original marginal distributions of variables as well as the multivariate relationships among covariates. We also investigate the consistency between Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) trained on synthetic data with GLMs trained on the original data. Furthermore, we assess the ease of use of each generative approach and study the impact of augmenting original data with synthetic data on the performance of GLMs for predicting claim counts. Our results highlight the potential of MICE-based methods in creating high-quality tabular data while being more user-friendly than the other methods.