Indaco Biazzo

Indaco Biazzo

Generative Autoregressive Neural Networks (ARNNs) have recently demonstrated exceptional results in image and language generation tasks, contributing to the growing popularity of generative models in both scientific and commercial applications. This work presents an exact mapping of the Boltzmann distribution of binary pairwise interacting systems into autoregressive form. The resulting ARNN architecture has weights and biases of its first layer corresponding to the Hamiltonian's couplings and external fields, featuring widely used structures such as the residual connections and a recurrent architecture with clear physical meanings. Moreover, its architecture's explicit formulation enables the use of statistical physics techniques to derive new ARNNs for specific systems. As examples, new effective ARNN architectures are derived from two well-known mean-field systems, the Curie-Weiss and Sherrington-Kirkpatrick models, showing superior performance in approximating the Boltzmann distributions of the corresponding physics model compared to other commonly used architectures. The connection established between the physics of the system and the neural network architecture provides a means to derive new architectures for different interacting systems and interpret existing ones from a physical perspective.

Sergio Consoli, Pietro Coletti, Peter V. Markov et al.

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), together with the increased availability of social media and news for epidemiological surveillance, are marking a pivotal moment in epidemiology and public health research. Leveraging the power of generative AI, we use an ensemble approach which incorporates multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract valuable actionable epidemiological information from the World Health Organization (WHO) Disease Outbreak News (DONs). DONs is a collection of regular reports on global outbreaks curated by the WHO and the adopted decision-making processes to respond to them. The extracted information is made available in a daily-updated dataset and a knowledge graph, referred to as eKG, derived to provide a nuanced representation of the public health domain knowledge. We provide an overview of this new dataset and describe the structure of eKG, along with the services and tools used to access and utilize the data that we are building on top. These innovative data resources open altogether new opportunities for epidemiological research, and the analysis and surveillance of disease outbreaks.

Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein, Luca Dall'Asta et al.

The reconstruction of missing information in epidemic spreading on contact networks can be essential in the prevention and containment strategies. The identification and warning of infectious but asymptomatic individuals (i.e., contact tracing), the well-known patient-zero problem, or the inference of the infectivity values in structured populations are examples of significant epidemic inference problems. As the number of possible epidemic cascades grows exponentially with the number of individuals involved and only an almost negligible subset of them is compatible with the observations (e.g., medical tests), epidemic inference in contact networks poses incredible computational challenges. We present a new generative neural networks framework that learns to generate the most probable infection cascades compatible with observations. The proposed method achieves better (in some cases, significantly better) or comparable results with existing methods in all problems considered both in synthetic and real contact networks. Given its generality, clear Bayesian and variational nature, the presented framework paves the way to solve fundamental inference epidemic problems with high precision in small and medium-sized real case scenarios such as the spread of infections in workplaces and hospitals.

Antoine Baker, Indaco Biazzo, Alfredo Braunstein et al.

Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of attention has been paid to analyzing the privacy and ethical risks of the associated mobile applications, so far much less research has been devoted to optimizing their performance and assessing their impact on the mitigation of the epidemic. We develop Bayesian inference methods to estimate the risk that an individual is infected. This inference is based on the list of his recent contacts and their own risk levels, as well as personal information such as results of tests or presence of syndromes. We propose to use probabilistic risk estimation in order to optimize testing and quarantining strategies for the control of an epidemic. Our results show that in some range of epidemic spreading (typically when the manual tracing of all contacts of infected people becomes practically impossible, but before the fraction of infected people reaches the scale where a lock-down becomes unavoidable), this inference of individuals at risk could be an efficient way to mitigate the epidemic. Our approaches translate into fully distributed algorithms that only require communication between individuals who have recently been in contact. Such communication may be encrypted and anonymized and thus compatible with privacy preserving standards. We conclude that probabilistic risk estimation is capable to enhance performance of digital contact tracing and should be considered in the currently developed mobile applications.