MLSep 2, 2025
Probabilities of Causation and Root Cause Analysis with Quasi-Markovian ModelsEduardo Rocha Laurentino, Fabio Gagliardi Cozman, Denis Deratani Maua et al.
Probabilities of causation provide principled ways to assess causal relationships but face computational challenges due to partial identifiability and latent confounding. This paper introduces both algorithmic simplifications, significantly reducing the computational complexity of calculating tighter bounds for these probabilities, and a novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis that systematically employs these causal metrics to rank entire causal paths.
AIJun 5, 2014
Advances in Learning Bayesian Networks of Bounded TreewidthSiqi Nie, Denis Deratani Maua, Cassio Polpo de Campos et al.
This work presents novel algorithms for learning Bayesian network structures with bounded treewidth. Both exact and approximate methods are developed. The exact method combines mixed-integer linear programming formulations for structure learning and treewidth computation. The approximate method consists in uniformly sampling $k$-trees (maximal graphs of treewidth $k$), and subsequently selecting, exactly or approximately, the best structure whose moral graph is a subgraph of that $k$-tree. Some properties of these methods are discussed and proven. The approaches are empirically compared to each other and to a state-of-the-art method for learning bounded treewidth structures on a collection of public data sets with up to 100 variables. The experiments show that our exact algorithm outperforms the state of the art, and that the approximate approach is fairly accurate.