Zhe Jiang

Zibo Liu, Zhe Jiang, Zelin Xu et al.

Traffic forecasting uses recent measurements by sensors installed at chosen locations to forecast the future road traffic. Existing work either assumes all locations are equipped with sensors or focuses on short-term forecast. This paper studies partial sensing forecast of long-term traffic, assuming sensors are available only at some locations. The problem is challenging due to the unknown data distribution at unsensed locations, the intricate spatio-temporal correlation in long-term forecasting, as well as noise to traffic patterns. We propose a Spatio-temporal Long-term Partial sensing Forecast model (SLPF) for traffic prediction, with several novel contributions, including a rank-based embedding technique to reduce the impact of noise in data, a spatial transfer matrix to overcome the spatial distribution shift from sensed locations to unsensed locations, and a multi-step training process that utilizes all available data to successively refine the model parameters for better accuracy. Extensive experiments on several real-world traffic datasets demonstrate its superior performance. Our source code is at https://github.com/zbliu98/SLPF

Zhe Jiang, Jiong Wang, Xiaoyu Yue et al.

Extreme weather events pose escalating risks to global society, underscoring the urgent need to unravel their underlying physical mechanisms. Yet the prevailing expert-driven, labor-intensive diagnostic paradigm has created a critical analytical bottleneck, stalling scientific progress. While AI for Earth Science has achieved notable advances in prediction, the equally essential challenge of automated diagnostic reasoning remains largely unexplored. We present the Extreme Weather Expert (EWE), the first intelligent agent framework dedicated to this task. EWE emulates expert workflows through knowledge-guided planning, closed-loop reasoning, and a domain-tailored meteorological toolkit. It autonomously produces and interprets multimodal visualizations from raw meteorological data, enabling comprehensive diagnostic analyses. To catalyze progress, we introduce the first benchmark for this emerging field, comprising a curated dataset of 103 high-impact events and a novel step-wise evaluation metric. EWE marks a step toward automated scientific discovery and offers the potential to democratize expertise and intellectual resources, particularly for developing nations vulnerable to extreme weather.

Zibo Liu, Zhe Jiang, Shigang Chen

Long-term traffic flow forecasting plays a crucial role in intelligent transportation as it allows traffic managers to adjust their decisions in advance. However, the problem is challenging due to spatio-temporal correlations and complex dynamic patterns in continuous-time stream data. Neural Differential Equations (NDEs) are among the state-of-the-art methods for learning continuous-time traffic dynamics. However, the traditional NDE models face issues in long-term traffic forecasting due to failures in capturing delayed traffic patterns, dynamic edge (location-to-location correlation) patterns, and abrupt trend patterns. To fill this gap, we propose a new NDE architecture called Multi-View Neural Differential Equations. Our model captures current states, delayed states, and trends in different state variables (views) by learning latent multiple representations within Neural Differential Equations. Extensive experiments conducted on several real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art and achieves superior prediction accuracy for long-term forecasting and robustness with noisy or missing inputs.

Tai-Long He, Dylan B. A. Jones, Binxuan Huang et al.

We use a hybrid deep learning model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) surface ozone concentrations in the US. A set of meteorological fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis as well as monthly mean NO$_x$ emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) inventory are selected as predictors. Ozone measurements from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) from 1980 to 2009 are used to train the model, whereas data from 2010 to 2014 are used to evaluate the performance of the model. The model captures well daily, seasonal and interannual variability in MDA8 ozone across the US. Feature maps show that the model captures teleconnections between MDA8 ozone and the meteorological fields, which are responsible for driving the ozone dynamics. We used the model to evaluate recent trends in NO$_x$ emissions in the US and found that the trend in the EPA emission inventory produced the largest negative bias in MDA8 ozone between 2010-2016. The top-down emission trends from the Tropospheric Chemistry Reanalysis (TCR-2), which is based on satellite observations, produced predictions in best agreement with observations. In urban regions, the trend in AQS NO$_2$ observations provided ozone predictions in agreement with observations, whereas in rural regions the satellite-derived trends produced the best agreement. In both rural and urban regions the EPA trend resulted in the largest negative bias in predicted ozone. Our results suggest that the EPA inventory is overestimating the reductions in NO$_x$ emissions and that the satellite-derived trend reflects the influence of reductions in NO$_x$ emissions as well as changes in background NO$_x$. Our results demonstrate the significantly greater predictive capability that the deep learning model provides over conventional atmospheric chemical transport models for air quality analyses.