Shi Zong

Yuxian Meng, Shi Zong, Xiaoya Li et al.

Inspired by the notion that ``{\it to copy is easier than to memorize}``, in this work, we introduce GNN-LM, which extends the vanilla neural language model (LM) by allowing to reference similar contexts in the entire training corpus. We build a directed heterogeneous graph between an input context and its semantically related neighbors selected from the training corpus, where nodes are tokens in the input context and retrieved neighbor contexts, and edges represent connections between nodes. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are constructed upon the graph to aggregate information from similar contexts to decode the token. This learning paradigm provides direct access to the reference contexts and helps improve a model's generalization ability. We conduct comprehensive experiments to validate the effectiveness of the GNN-LM: GNN-LM achieves a new state-of-the-art perplexity of 14.8 on WikiText-103 (a 3.9 point improvement over its counterpart of the vanilla LM model), and shows substantial improvement on One Billion Word and Enwiki8 datasets against strong baselines. In-depth ablation studies are performed to understand the mechanics of GNN-LM. \footnote{The code can be found at https://github.com/ShannonAI/GNN-LM

Shi Zong, Jimmy Lin

There have been a huge number of benchmarks proposed to evaluate how large language models (LLMs) behave for logic inference tasks. However, it remains an open question how to properly evaluate this ability. In this paper, we provide a systematic overview of prior works on the logical reasoning ability of LLMs for analyzing categorical syllogisms. We first investigate all the possible variations for the categorical syllogisms from a purely logical perspective and then examine the underlying configurations (i.e., mood and figure) tested by the existing datasets. Our results indicate that compared to template-based synthetic datasets, crowdsourcing approaches normally sacrifice the coverage of configurations (i.e., mood and figure) of categorical syllogisms for more language variations, thus bringing challenges to fully testing LLMs under different situations. We then proceed to summarize the findings and observations for the performances of LLMs to infer the validity of syllogisms from the current literature. The error rate breakdown analyses suggest that the interpretation of the quantifiers seems to be the current bottleneck that limits the performances of the LLMs and is thus worth more attention. Finally, we discuss several points that might be worth considering when researchers plan on the future release of categorical syllogism datasets. We hope our work will not only provide a timely review of the current literature regarding categorical syllogisms, but also motivate more interdisciplinary research between communities, specifically computational linguists and logicians.

Shi Zong, Alan Ritter, Eduard Hovy

People vary in their ability to make accurate predictions about the future. Prior studies have shown that some individuals can predict the outcome of future events with consistently better accuracy. This leads to a natural question: what makes some forecasters better than others? In this paper we explore connections between the language people use to describe their predictions and their forecasting skill. Datasets from two different forecasting domains are explored: (1) geopolitical forecasts from Good Judgment Open, an online prediction forum and (2) a corpus of company earnings forecasts made by financial analysts. We present a number of linguistic metrics which are computed over text associated with people's predictions about the future including: uncertainty, readability, and emotion. By studying linguistic factors associated with predictions, we are able to shed some light on the approach taken by skilled forecasters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that it is possible to accurately predict forecasting skill using a model that is based solely on language. This could potentially be useful for identifying accurate predictions or potentially skilled forecasters earlier.

Shi Zong, Ashutosh Baheti, Wei Xu et al.

In this paper, we present a manually annotated corpus of 10,000 tweets containing public reports of five COVID-19 events, including positive and negative tests, deaths, denied access to testing, claimed cures and preventions. We designed slot-filling questions for each event type and annotated a total of 31 fine-grained slots, such as the location of events, recent travel, and close contacts. We show that our corpus can support fine-tuning BERT-based classifiers to automatically extract publicly reported events and help track the spread of a new disease. We also demonstrate that, by aggregating events extracted from millions of tweets, we achieve surprisingly high precision when answering complex queries, such as "Which organizations have employees that tested positive in Philadelphia?" We will release our corpus (with user-information removed), automatic extraction models, and the corresponding knowledge base to the research community.

Shi Zong, Alan Ritter, Graham Mueller et al.

Breaking cybersecurity events are shared across a range of websites, including security blogs (FireEye, Kaspersky, etc.), in addition to social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter. In this paper, we investigate methods to analyze the severity of cybersecurity threats based on the language that is used to describe them online. A corpus of 6,000 tweets describing software vulnerabilities is annotated with authors' opinions toward their severity. We show that our corpus supports the development of automatic classifiers with high precision for this task. Furthermore, we demonstrate the value of analyzing users' opinions about the severity of threats reported online as an early indicator of important software vulnerabilities. We present a simple, yet effective method for linking software vulnerabilities reported in tweets to Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs) in the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). Using our predicted severity scores, we show that it is possible to achieve a Precision@50 of 0.86 when forecasting high severity vulnerabilities, significantly outperforming a baseline that is based on tweet volume. Finally we show how reports of severe vulnerabilities online are predictive of real-world exploits.

Shi Zong, Branislav Kveton, Shlomo Berkovsky et al.

Weather affects our mood and behaviors, and many aspects of our life. When it is sunny, most people become happier; but when it rains, some people get depressed. Despite this evidence and the abundance of data, weather has mostly been overlooked in the machine learning and data science research. This work presents a causal analysis of how weather affects TV watching patterns. We show that some weather attributes, such as pressure and precipitation, cause major changes in TV watching patterns. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large-scale causal study of the impact of weather on TV watching patterns.

Shi Zong, Hao Ni, Kenny Sung et al.

Most recommender systems recommend a list of items. The user examines the list, from the first item to the last, and often chooses the first attractive item and does not examine the rest. This type of user behavior can be modeled by the cascade model. In this work, we study cascading bandits, an online learning variant of the cascade model where the goal is to recommend $K$ most attractive items from a large set of $L$ candidate items. We propose two algorithms for solving this problem, which are based on the idea of linear generalization. The key idea in our solutions is that we learn a predictor of the attraction probabilities of items from their features, as opposing to learning the attraction probability of each item independently as in the existing work. This results in practical learning algorithms whose regret does not depend on the number of items $L$. We bound the regret of one algorithm and comprehensively evaluate the other on a range of recommendation problems. The algorithm performs well and outperforms all baselines.