Arnab Mazumder

Daniel O'Malley, Christopher W. Johnson, Javier E. Santos et al.

Continental-scale knowledge of subsurface temperature is limited by the cost and sparsity of borehole measurements, but such information is essential for geothermal resource assessment and for understanding heat transport in the shallow crust. The thermal field reflects the interaction between lithology, crustal structure, radiogenic heat production, and advective fluid flow, sometimes producing sharp anomalies that are smoothed by conventional interpolation or difficult to capture with physical models. Here we introduce In-Context Earth, a transformer-based model that uses sparse local borehole observations as geological context to predict continuous temperature-at-depth fields with calibrated uncertainty. In the contiguous United States, the model achieves a mean absolute error of 4.7 °C, outperforming the physics-informed Stanford Thermal Model, a model based on AlphaEarth embeddings, the multimodal Transparent Earth model, and universal kriging, while resolving sharper thermal gradients in geothermal provinces. Its uncertainty estimates are well calibrated, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic of 2.5%. Without finetuning, the model adapts to Alberta, Australia, and the United Kingdom (UK) using only 20 local observations at inference time, maintaining high accuracy in geologically distinct test regions with a mean absolute error of 2.2 °C in Alberta, 6.2 °C in Australia, and 5.4 °C in the UK. Interpretability analyses show that the model learns internal representations of subsurface properties it never observes during training, including seismic velocities, geochemistry, and crustal structure, and uses these representations in physically consistent ways. More broadly, this work shows that in-context learning can use sparse borehole observations for continental-scale subsurface characterization, without requiring dense measurements or region-specific retraining.

Arnab Mazumder, Javier E. Santos, Noah Hobbs et al.

We present the Transparent Earth, a transformer-based architecture for reconstructing subsurface properties from heterogeneous datasets that vary in sparsity, resolution, and modality, where each modality represents a distinct type of observation (e.g., stress angle, mantle temperature, tectonic plate type). The model incorporates positional encodings of observations together with modality encodings, derived from a text embedding model applied to a description of each modality. This design enables the model to scale to an arbitrary number of modalities, making it straightforward to add new ones not considered in the initial design. We currently include eight modalities spanning directional angles, categorical classes, and continuous properties such as temperature and thickness. These capabilities support in-context learning, enabling the model to generate predictions either with no inputs or with an arbitrary number of additional observations from any subset of modalities. On validation data, this reduces errors in predicting stress angle by more than a factor of three. The proposed architecture is scalable and demonstrates improved performance with increased parameters. Together, these advances make the Transparent Earth an initial foundation model for the Earth's subsurface that ultimately aims to predict any subsurface property anywhere on Earth.