Florian Huber

Qian Du, Mark M. Sullivan, James E. Saal et al.

This study presents an iterative AI-guided workflow that accelerates graphite-based anode development by improving both formulation feasibility and process robustness. Sequential learning via AI/ML-guided multiobjective inverse design for anode optimization was implemented using the Citrine Platform. Starting from a noisy, incomplete dataset, the Citrine Platform was used to generate early surrogate models, which despite low predictive certainty highlighted missing process constraints. By iteratively adding feasibility labels and boundary condition failures, the workflow rapidly converged toward manufacturable, higher-performing formulations. Fabrication reliability improved from frequent process failures to 100% successful cell production, while the fraction of cells delivering $\geq$ 350 mAh g$^{-1}$ increased from 28.4% to 84.8%, with capacity retention rising from 42.1% to 97.3%. These results demonstrate that structured, feedback-driven AI workflows can transform imperfect industrial data into actionable guidance, enabling faster, more reproducible optimization of battery electrode manufacturing.

Martin Feldkircher, Florian Huber, Gary Koop et al.

Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs) are a popular tool for analyzing multi-country datasets. However, the number of estimated parameters can be enormous, leading to computational and statistical issues. In this paper, we develop fast Bayesian methods for estimating PVARs using integrated rotated Gaussian approximations. We exploit the fact that domestic information is often more important than international information and group the coefficients accordingly. Fast approximations are used to estimate the latter while the former are estimated with precision using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate, using a huge model of the world economy, that it produces competitive forecasts quickly.

Florian Huber, Gary Koop, Luca Onorante et al.

This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of extreme observations, for instance those produced by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020. This is due to their flexibility and ability to model outliers. In an application involving four major euro area countries, we find substantial improvements in nowcasting performance relative to a linear mixed frequency VAR.

Florian Huber, Luca Rossini

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models assume linearity between the endogenous variables and their lags. This assumption might be overly restrictive and could have a deleterious impact on forecasting accuracy. As a solution, we propose combining VAR with Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) models. The resulting Bayesian additive vector autoregressive tree (BAVART) model is capable of capturing arbitrary non-linear relations between the endogenous variables and the covariates without much input from the researcher. Since controlling for heteroscedasticity is key for producing precise density forecasts, our model allows for stochastic volatility in the errors. We apply our model to two datasets. The first application shows that the BAVART model yields highly competitive forecasts of the US term structure of interest rates. In a second application, we estimate our model using a moderately sized Eurozone dataset to investigate the dynamic effects of uncertainty on the economy.