Lintao Ma

Yong Liu, Tengge Hu, Haoran Zhang et al.

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

Yang Luo, Shiyu Wang, Zhemeng Yu et al.

The surging demand for cloud computing resources, driven by the rapid growth of sophisticated large-scale models and data centers, underscores the critical importance of efficient and adaptive resource allocation. As major tech enterprises deploy massive infrastructures with thousands of GPUs, existing cloud platforms still struggle with low resource utilization due to key challenges: capturing hierarchical indicator structures, modeling non-Gaussian distributions, and decision-making under uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose HRAMONY, an adaptive Hierarchical Attention-based Resource Modeling and Decision-Making System. HARMONY combines hierarchical multi-indicator distribution forecasting and uncertainty-aware Bayesian decision-making. It introduces a novel hierarchical attention mechanism that comprehensively models complex inter-indicator dependencies, enabling accurate predictions that can adapt to evolving environment states. By transforming Gaussian projections into adaptive non-Gaussian distributions via Normalizing Flows. Crucially, HARMONY leverages the full predictive distributions in an adaptive Bayesian process, proactively incorporating uncertainties to optimize resource allocation while robustly meeting SLA constraints under varying conditions. Extensive evaluations across four large-scale cloud datasets demonstrate HARMONY's state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming nine established methods. A month-long real-world deployment validated HARMONY's substantial practical impact, realizing over 35,000 GPU hours in savings and translating to $100K+ in cost reduction, showcasing its remarkable economic value through adaptive, uncertainty-aware scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Floating-LY/HARMONY1.

Ming Jin, Shiyu Wang, Lintao Ma et al.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

Siqiao Xue, Chao Qu, Xiaoming Shi et al.

Predictive autoscaling (autoscaling with workload forecasting) is an important mechanism that supports autonomous adjustment of computing resources in accordance with fluctuating workload demands in the Cloud. In recent works, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been introduced as a promising approach to learn the resource management policies to guide the scaling actions under the dynamic and uncertain cloud environment. However, RL methods face the following challenges in steering predictive autoscaling, such as lack of accuracy in decision-making, inefficient sampling and significant variability in workload patterns that may cause policies to fail at test time. To this end, we propose an end-to-end predictive meta model-based RL algorithm, aiming to optimally allocate resource to maintain a stable CPU utilization level, which incorporates a specially-designed deep periodic workload prediction model as the input and embeds the Neural Process to guide the learning of the optimal scaling actions over numerous application services in the Cloud. Our algorithm not only ensures the predictability and accuracy of the scaling strategy, but also enables the scaling decisions to adapt to the changing workloads with high sample efficiency. Our method has achieved significant performance improvement compared to the existing algorithms and has been deployed online at Alipay, supporting the autoscaling of applications for the world-leading payment platform.

Shiyu Wang, Fan Zhou, Yinbo Sun et al.

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts should satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints. Moreover, the disparities of statistical characteristics between levels can be huge, worsened by non-Gaussian distributions and non-linear correlations. To this extent, we propose a novel end-to-end hierarchical time series forecasting model, based on conditioned normalizing flow-based autoregressive transformer reconciliation, to represent complex data distribution while simultaneously reconciling the forecasts to ensure coherency. Unlike other state-of-the-art methods, we achieve the forecasting and reconciliation simultaneously without requiring any explicit post-processing step. In addition, by harnessing the power of deep model, we do not rely on any assumption such as unbiased estimates or Gaussian distribution. Our evaluation experiments are conducted on four real-world hierarchical datasets from different industrial domains (three public ones and a dataset from the application servers of Alipay's data center) and the preliminary results demonstrate efficacy of our proposed method.

Fan Zhou, Chen Pan, Lintao Ma et al.

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS) forecasting includes two sub-tasks, i.e., forecasting and reconciliation. In the previous works, hierarchical information is only integrated in the reconciliation step to maintain coherency, but not in forecasting step for accuracy improvement. In this paper, we propose two novel tree-based feature integration mechanisms, i.e., top-down convolution and bottom-up attention to leverage the information of the hierarchical structure to improve the forecasting performance. Moreover, unlike most previous reconciliation methods which either rely on strong assumptions or focus on coherent constraints only,we utilize deep neural optimization networks, which not only achieve coherency without any assumptions, but also allow more flexible and realistic constraints to achieve task-based targets, e.g., lower under-estimation penalty and meaningful decision-making loss to facilitate the subsequent downstream tasks. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our tree-based feature integration mechanism achieves superior performances on hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to the state-of-the-art methods, and our neural optimization networks can be applied to real-world tasks effectively without any additional effort under coherence and task-based constraints

Siqiao Xue, Xiaoming Shi, Hongyan Hao et al.

Point process is the dominant paradigm for modeling event sequences occurring at irregular intervals. In this paper we aim at modeling latent dynamics of event propagation in graph, where the event sequence propagates in a directed weighted graph whose nodes represent event marks (e.g., event types). Most existing works have only considered encoding sequential event history into event representation and ignored the information from the latent graph structure. Besides they also suffer from poor model explainability, i.e., failing to uncover causal influence across a wide variety of nodes. To address these problems, we propose a Graph Regularized Point Process (GRPP) that can be decomposed into: 1) a graph propagation model that characterizes the event interactions across nodes with neighbors and inductively learns node representations; 2) a temporal attentive intensity model, whose excitation and time decay factors of past events on the current event are constructed via the contextualization of the node embedding. Moreover, by applying a graph regularization method, GRPP provides model interpretability by uncovering influence strengths between nodes. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that GRPP outperforms existing models on both the propagation time and node prediction by notable margins.

Zikai Song, Ying Tang, Run Luo et al.

Point tracking is a challenging task in computer vision, aiming to establish point-wise correspondence across long video sequences. Recent advancements have primarily focused on temporal modeling techniques to improve local feature similarity, often overlooking the valuable semantic consistency inherent in tracked points. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach leveraging language embeddings to enhance the coherence of frame-wise visual features related to the same object. Our proposed method, termed autogenic language embedding for visual feature enhancement, strengthens point correspondence in long-term sequences. Unlike existing visual-language schemes, our approach learns text embeddings from visual features through a dedicated mapping network, enabling seamless adaptation to various tracking tasks without explicit text annotations. Additionally, we introduce a consistency decoder that efficiently integrates text tokens into visual features with minimal computational overhead. Through enhanced visual consistency, our approach significantly improves tracking trajectories in lengthy videos with substantial appearance variations. Extensive experiments on widely-used tracking benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of our method, showcasing notable enhancements compared to trackers relying solely on visual cues.

Jie Sun, Junkang Wu, Jiancan Wu et al.

The alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial for ensuring their safety and reliability in practical applications. Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as an efficient method that directly optimizes models using preference pairs, significantly reducing resource demands. However, the effectiveness of DPO heavily depends on the data quality, which is frequently compromised by noise. In this work, we propose $γ$-PO, a dynamic target margin preference optimization algorithm that adjust reward margins at the pairwise level. By introducing instance-specific margin calibration, $γ$-PO strategically prioritizes high-confidence pairs (those demonstrating higher reward margins) while suppressing potential noise from ambiguous pairs. Moreover, $γ$-PO is a plug-and-play method, compatible with variants of DPO that rely on reward margin between preference pairs. Across benchmarks such as AlpacaEval2 and Arena-Hard, $γ$-PO achieves an average 4.4\% improvement over other baselines, setting new benchmarks for state-of-the-art performance. Additionally, $γ$-PO requires minimal code changes and has a negligible impact on training efficiency, making it a robust solution for enhancing LLMs alignment. Our codes are available at \href{https://github.com/sunjie279/gammaPO}{https://github.com/sunjie279/gammaPO}.

Lu Han, Yu Liu, Qiwen Deng et al.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have achieved remarkable success through large-scale pretraining. However, their design primarily targets real-valued series, limiting their ability to handle general forecasting tasks involving diverse and often heterogeneous covariates--such as categorical variables and multimodal data (e.g., images, text)--which are typically task-specific and difficult to leverage during pretraining. To address this gap, we propose Unified Covariate Adaptation (UniCA), a framework to bridge TSFMs with general covariate-aware forecasting. UniCA first performs covariate homogenization to transform heterogeneous covariates into high-level homogeneous series representations and then fuses them via a unified attention-based fusion mechanism. UniCA is compatible and universal for adaptation with both homogeneous and heterogeneous covariates, incorporating extra covariate information while preserving the generalization ability of TSFMs.Extensive experiments on multiple unimodal and multimodal covariate-aware forecasting benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of UniCA, highlighting the promise of covariate-aware TSFM adaptation in real-world forecasting scenarios. Codes are released on https://github.com/hanlu-nju/UniCA.

Yiyuan Yang, Ming Jin, Haomin Wen et al.

The study of time series is crucial for understanding trends and anomalies over time, enabling predictive insights across various sectors. Spatio-temporal data, on the other hand, is vital for analyzing phenomena in both space and time, providing a dynamic perspective on complex system interactions. Recently, diffusion models have seen widespread application in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. Not only do they enhance the generative and inferential capabilities for sequential and temporal data, but they also extend to other downstream tasks. In this survey, we comprehensively and thoroughly review the use of diffusion models in time series and spatio-temporal data, categorizing them by model category, task type, data modality, and practical application domain. In detail, we categorize diffusion models into unconditioned and conditioned types and discuss time series and spatio-temporal data separately. Unconditioned models, which operate unsupervised, are subdivided into probability-based and score-based models, serving predictive and generative tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and imputation. Conditioned models, on the other hand, utilize extra information to enhance performance and are similarly divided for both predictive and generative tasks. Our survey extensively covers their application in various fields, including healthcare, recommendation, climate, energy, audio, and transportation, providing a foundational understanding of how these models analyze and generate data. Through this structured overview, we aim to provide researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive understanding of diffusion models for time series and spatio-temporal data analysis, aiming to direct future innovations and applications by addressing traditional challenges and exploring innovative solutions within the diffusion model framework.

Fan Zhou, Chen Pan, Lintao Ma et al.

Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without ensuring coherence, which is crucial for aligning downstream decisions. Previous works mainly focus on ensuring coherence with some straightforward methods, e.g., aggregation from the forecasts of fine granularity to the coarse ones, and allocation from the coarse granularity to the fine ones. These methods merely take the temporal hierarchical structure to maintain coherence without improving the forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel granularity message-passing mechanism (GMP) that leverages temporal hierarchy information to improve forecasting performance and also utilizes an adaptive reconciliation (AR) strategy to maintain coherence without performance loss. Furthermore, we introduce an optimization module to achieve task-based targets while adhering to more real-world constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework (GMP-AR) achieves superior performances on temporal hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our framework has been successfully applied to a real-world task of payment traffic management in Alipay by integrating with the task-based optimization module.

Shiyu Wang, Yinbo Sun, Xiaoming Shi et al.

The rapid rise in cloud computing has resulted in an alarming increase in data centers' carbon emissions, which now accounts for >3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, necessitating immediate steps to combat their mounting strain on the global climate. An important focus of this effort is to improve resource utilization in order to save electricity usage. Our proposed Full Scaling Automation (FSA) mechanism is an effective method of dynamically adapting resources to accommodate changing workloads in large-scale cloud computing clusters, enabling the clusters in data centers to maintain their desired CPU utilization target and thus improve energy efficiency. FSA harnesses the power of deep representation learning to accurately predict the future workload of each service and automatically stabilize the corresponding target CPU usage level, unlike the previous autoscaling methods, such as Autopilot or FIRM, that need to adjust computing resources with statistical models and expert knowledge. Our approach achieves significant performance improvement compared to the existing work in real-world datasets. We also deployed FSA on large-scale cloud computing clusters in industrial data centers, and according to the certification of the China Environmental United Certification Center (CEC), a reduction of 947 tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to a saving of 1538,000 kWh of electricity, was achieved during the Double 11 shopping festival of 2022, marking a critical step for our company's strategic goal towards carbon neutrality by 2030.

Shijun Wang, Baocheng Zhu, Lintao Ma et al.

In this paper, we consider optimizing a smooth, convex, lower semicontinuous function in Riemannian space with constraints. To solve the problem, we first convert it to a dual problem and then propose a general primal-dual algorithm to optimize the primal and dual variables iteratively. In each optimization iteration, we employ a proximal operator to search optimal solution in the primal space. We prove convergence of the proposed algorithm and show its non-asymptotic convergence rate. By utilizing the proposed primal-dual optimization technique, we propose a novel metric learning algorithm which learns an optimal feature transformation matrix in the Riemannian space of positive definite matrices. Preliminary experimental results on an optimal fund selection problem in fund of funds (FOF) management for quantitative investment showed its efficacy.