James Buchanan

Giancarlo Antonino Antonucci, Raphael Andreas Hauser, Debasmita Samaddar et al.

Time-parallel algorithms, such as Parareal, are well-understood for linear problems, but their convergence analysis for nonlinear, chaotic systems remains limited. This paper introduces a new theoretical framework for analysing time-decomposition methods as contraction mappings that converge in a finite number of iterations. We derive a finite-time guarantee linking the initial error, convergence rate, and iteration count, defined via a geometric outer--inner-ball condition. We apply this framework to Parareal, deriving explicit estimates for the convergence factor $β$ on nonlinear problems and showing it scales as $\mathcal{O}(h^2)$ when the macroscopic time grid is uniformly refined. Further, we address the failure of standard convergence criteria in chaotic regimes by introducing a proximity function. This chaos-aware criterion weighs solution discontinuities by the system's Lyapunov exponent (or the solver's Lipschitz constant), allowing the algorithm to converge to the correct statistical attractor without enforcing futile pointwise accuracy on divergent trajectories. Numerical experiments on the Logistic, Lorenz, and Lorenz-96 systems demonstrate that this approach decouples the iteration count from the total simulation time. By isolating the intrinsic mathematical bounds from hardware-dependent overheads, we establish that the method is strictly algorithmically scalable.

Pedro Cavestany, Alasdair Ross, Adriano Agnello et al.

Machine learning has recently been adopted to emulate sensitivity matrices for real-time magnetic control of tokamak plasmas. However, these approaches would benefit from a quantification of possible inaccuracies. We report on two aspects of real-time applicability of emulators. First, we quantify the agreement of target displacement from VCs computed via Jacobians of the shape emulators with those from finite differences Jacobians on exact Grad-Shafranov solutions. Good agreement ($\approx$5-10%) can be achieved on a selection of geometric targets using combinations of neural network emulators with $\approx10^5$ parameters. A sample of $\approx10^{5}-10^{6}$ synthetic equilibria is essential to train emulators that are not over-regularised or overfitting. Smaller models trained on the shape targets may be further fine-tuned to better fit the Jacobians. Second, we address the effect of vessel currents that are not directly measured in real-time and are typically subsumed into effective "shaping currents" when designing virtual circuits. We demonstrate that shaping currents can be inferred via simple linear regression on a trailing window of active coil current measurements with residuals of only a few Ampères, enabling a choice for the most appropriate shaping currents at any point in a shot. While these results are based on historic shot data and simulations tailored to MAST-U, they indicate that emulators with few-millisecond latency can be developed for robust real-time plasma shape control in existing and upcoming tokamaks.