Lishuai Li

Yongchao Ye, Xinting Zhu, Xuejin Shen et al.

As Earth's orbital satellite population grows exponentially, effective space situational awareness becomes critical for collision prevention and sustainable operations. Current approaches to monitor satellite behaviors rely on expert knowledge and rule-based systems that scale poorly. Among essential monitoring tasks, satellite pattern-of-life (PoL) identification, analyzing behaviors like station-keeping maneuvers and drift operations, remains underdeveloped due to aerospace system complexity, operational variability, and inconsistent ephemerides sources. We propose a novel generative approach for satellite PoL identification that significantly eliminates the dependence on expert knowledge. The proposed approach leverages orbital elements and positional data to enable automatic pattern discovery directly from observations. Our implementation uses a diffusion model framework for end-to-end identification without manual refinement or domain expertise. The architecture combines a multivariate time-series encoder to capture hidden representations of satellite positional data with a conditional denoising process to generate accurate PoL classifications. Through experiments across diverse real-world satellite operational scenarios, our approach demonstrates superior identification quality and robustness across varying data quality characteristics. A case study using actual satellite data confirms the approach's transformative potential for operational behavior pattern identification, enhanced tracking, and space situational awareness.

Xinbo Zhang, Montserrat Guillen, Lishuai Li et al.

Driving behavior big data leverages multi-sensor telematics to understand how people drive and powers applications such as risk evaluation, insurance pricing, and targeted intervention. Usage-based insurance (UBI) built on these data has become mainstream. Telematics-captured near-miss events (NMEs) provide a timely alternative to claim-based risk, but weekly NMEs are sparse, highly zero-inflated, and behaviorally heterogeneous even after exposure normalization. Analyzing multi-sensor telematics and ADAS warnings, we show that the traditional statistical models underfit the dataset. We address these challenges by proposing a set of zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) frameworks that learn latent behavior groups and fit offset-based count models via EM to yield calibrated, interpretable weekly risk predictions. Using a naturalistic dataset from a fleet of 354 commercial drivers over a year, during which the drivers completed 287,511 trips and logged 8,142,896 km in total, our results show consistent improvements over baselines and prior telematics models, with lower AIC/BIC values in-sample and better calibration out-of-sample. We also conducted sensitivity analyses on the EM-based grouping for the number of clusters, finding that the gains were robust and interpretable. Practically, this supports context-aware ratemaking on a weekly basis and fairer premiums by recognizing heterogeneous driving styles.

Yuxin He, Lishuai Li, Xinting Zhu et al.

Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep learning approach, Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) is proposed to forecast passenger flow in urban rail transit systems to incorporate these complex factors. We propose to use multiple graphs to encode the spatial and other heterogenous inter-station correlations. The temporal dynamics of the inter-station correlations are also modeled via the proposed multi-graph convolutional-recurrent neural network structure. Inflow and outflow of all stations can be collectively predicted with multiple time steps ahead via a sequence to sequence(seq2seq) architecture. The proposed method is applied to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow in Shenzhen Metro, China. The experimental results show that MGC-RNN outperforms the benchmark algorithms in terms of forecasting accuracy. Besides, it is found that the inter-station driven by network distance, network structure, and recent flow patterns are significant factors for passenger flow forecasting. Moreover, the architecture of LSTM-encoder-decoder can capture the temporal dependencies well. In general, the proposed framework could provide multiple views of passenger flow dynamics for fine prediction and exhibit a possibility for multi-source heterogeneous data fusion in the spatiotemporal forecast tasks.

Xinyu He, Fang He, Xinting Zhu et al.

Accurate aircraft-mass estimation is critical to airlines from the safety-management and performance-optimization viewpoints. Overloading an aircraft with passengers and baggage might result in a safety hazard. In contrast, not fully utilizing an aircraft's payload-carrying capacity undermines its operational efficiency and airline profitability. However, accurate determination of the aircraft mass for each operating flight is not feasible because it is impractical to weigh each aircraft component, including the payload. The existing methods for aircraft-mass estimation are dependent on the aircraft- and engine-performance parameters, which are usually considered proprietary information. Moreover, the values of these parameters vary under different operating conditions while those of others might be subject to large estimation errors. This paper presents a data-driven method involving use of the quick access recorder (QAR)-a digital flight-data recorder-installed on all aircrafts to record the initial aircraft climb mass during each flight. The method requires users to select appropriate parameters among several thousand others recorded by the QAR using physical models. The selected data are subsequently processed and provided as input to a multilayer perceptron neural network for building the model for initial-climb aircraft-mass prediction. Thus, the proposed method offers the advantages of both the model-based and data-driven approaches for aircraft-mass estimation. Because this method does not explicitly rely on any aircraft or engine parameter, it is universally applicable to all aircraft types. In this study, the proposed method was applied to a set of Boeing 777-300ER aircrafts, the results of which demonstrated reasonable accuracy. Airlines can use this tool to better utilize aircraft's payload.

Weizun Zhao, Lishuai Li, Sameer Alam et al.

Safety is a top priority for civil aviation. New anomaly detection methods, primarily clustering methods, have been developed to monitor pilot operations and detect any risks from such flight data. However, all existing anomaly detection methods are offlline learning - the models are trained once using historical data and used for all future predictions. In practice, new flight data are accumulated continuously and analyzed every month at airlines. Clustering such dynamically growing data is challenging for an offlline method because it is memory and time intensive to re-train the model every time new data come in. If the model is not re-trained, false alarms or missed detections may increase since the model cannot reflect changes in data patterns. To address this problem, we propose a novel incremental anomaly detection method based on Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to identify common patterns and detect outliers in flight operations from digital flight data. It is a probabilistic clustering model of flight operations that can incrementally update its clusters based on new data rather than to re-cluster all data from scratch. It trains an initial GMM model based on historical offlline data. Then, it continuously adapts to new incoming data points via an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. To track changes in flight operation patterns, only model parameters need to be saved. The proposed method was tested on three sets of simulation data and two sets of real-world flight data. Compared with the traditional offline GMM method, the proposed method can generate similar clustering results with significantly reduced processing time (57 % - 99 % time reduction in testing sets) and memory usage (91 % - 95 % memory usage reduction in testing sets). Preliminary results indicate that the incremental learning scheme is effective in dealing with dynamically growing data in flight data analytics.

Xinting Zhu, Lishuai Li

Under increasing economic and environmental pressure, airlines are constantly seeking new technologies and optimizing flight operations to reduce fuel consumption. However, the current practice on fuel loading, which has a significant impact on aircraft weight and fuel consumption, has yet to be thoroughly addressed by existing studies. Excess fuel is loaded by dispatchers and (or) pilots to handle fuel consumption uncertainties, primarily caused by flight time uncertainties, which cannot be predicted by current Flight Planning Systems. In this paper, we develop a novel spatial weighted recurrent neural network model to provide better flight time predictions by capturing air traffic information at a national scale based on multiple data sources, including Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast, Meteorological Aerodrome Reports, and airline records. In this model, a spatial weighted layer is designed to extract spatial dependences among network delay states. Then, a new training procedure associated with the spatial weighted layer is introduced to extract OD-specific spatial weights. Long short-term memory networks are used to extract the temporal behavior patterns of network delay states. Finally, features from delays, weather, and flight schedules are fed into a fully connected neural network to predict the flight time of a particular flight. The proposed model was evaluated using one year of historical data from an airline's real operations. Results show that our model can provide more accurate flight time predictions than baseline methods, especially for flights with extreme delays. We also show that, with the improved flight time prediction, fuel loading can be optimized and resulting in reduced fuel consumption by 0.016%-1.915% without increasing the fuel depletion risk.