Fabrizio Maria Maggi

Ivan Donadello, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

Prescriptive Process Monitoring systems recommend, during the execution of a business process, interventions that, if followed, prevent a negative outcome of the process. Such interventions have to be reliable, that is, they have to guarantee the achievement of the desired outcome or performance, and they have to be flexible, that is, they have to avoid overturning the normal process execution or forcing the execution of a given activity. Most of the existing Prescriptive Process Monitoring solutions, however, while performing well in terms of recommendation reliability, provide the users with very specific (sequences of) activities that have to be executed without caring about the feasibility of these recommendations. In order to face this issue, we propose a new Outcome-Oriented Prescriptive Process Monitoring system recommending temporal relations between activities that have to be guaranteed during the process execution in order to achieve a desired outcome. This softens the mandatory execution of an activity at a given point in time, thus leaving more freedom to the user in deciding the interventions to put in place. Our approach defines these temporal relations with Linear Temporal Logic over finite traces patterns that are used as features to describe the historical process data recorded in an event log by the information systems supporting the execution of the process. Such encoded log is used to train a Machine Learning classifier to learn a mapping between the temporal patterns and the outcome of a process execution. The classifier is then queried at runtime to return as recommendations the most salient temporal patterns to be satisfied to maximize the likelihood of a certain outcome for an input ongoing process execution. The proposed system is assessed using a pool of 22 real-life event logs that have already been used as a benchmark in the Process Mining community.

Anti Alman, Izack Cohen, Avigdor Gal et al.

A core component of any AI-Augmented Business Process Management System (ABPMS) is the process frame, which gives the system process-awareness and defines the boundaries in which the system must operate. Compared to traditional process models, the process frame should, in principle, provide a somewhat more permissive representation of the managed processes, such that the (semi) autonomous behavior of an ABPMS, referred to as framed autonomy, could emerge. At the same time, it is not limited to a single linguistic or symbolic formalism and may incorporate heterogeneous knowledge ranging from predefined procedures to commonsense rules and best practices. In this paper, we conceptualize the notion of an ABPMS process frame as a hybrid business process representation, consisting of semi-concurrently executed procedural and declarative process models. We rely on our earlier works to outline the execution semantics of this type of process frame, arguing in favor of adopting the open-world assumption of the declarative paradigm also for procedural process models. The latter leads to a constraint-like interpretation, where each procedural model is considered to constrain the activities within that model, without imposing explicit execution requirements nor limitations on activities that may be present in other models. This is analogous to existing declarative languages, such as Declare, where each constraint has a direct effect only on the specific activities being constrained. Given this similarity, we propose mapping subsets of discovered declarative constraints into equivalent semi-concurrently executed procedural fragments, thus laying the foundation for a corresponding process (frame) discovery approach.

Francesco Chiariello, Fabrizio Maria Maggi, Fabio Patrizi

We propose Answer Set Programming (ASP) as an approach for modeling and solving problems from the area of Declarative Process Mining (DPM). We consider here three classical problems, namely, Log Generation, Conformance Checking, and Query Checking. These problems are addressed from both a control-flow and a data-aware perspective. The approach is based on the representation of process specifications as (finite-state) automata. Since these are strictly more expressive than the de facto DPM standard specification language DECLARE, more general specifications than those typical of DPM can be handled, such as formulas in linear-time temporal logic over finite traces. (Full version available in the Proceedings of the 36th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence).

Williams Rizzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Predictive Process Monitoring is a field of Process Mining that aims at predicting how an ongoing execution of a business process will develop in the future using past process executions recorded in event logs. The recent stream of publications in this field shows the need for tools able to support researchers and users in analyzing, comparing and selecting the techniques that are the most suitable for them. Nirdizati is a dedicated tool for supporting users in building, comparing, analyzing, and explaining predictive models that can then be used to perform predictions on the future of an ongoing case. By providing a rich set of different state-of-the-art approaches, Nirdizati offers BPM researchers and practitioners a useful and flexible instrument for investigating and comparing Predictive Process Monitoring techniques. In this paper, we present the current version of Nirdizati, together with its architecture which has been developed to improve its modularity and scalability. The features of Nirdizati enrich its capability to support researchers and practitioners within the entire pipeline for constructing reliable Predictive Process Monitoring models.

Williams Rizzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Recent papers have introduced a novel approach to explain why a Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) model for outcome-oriented predictions provides wrong predictions. Moreover, they have shown how to exploit the explanations, obtained using state-of-the art post-hoc explainers, to identify the most common features that induce a predictor to make mistakes in a semi-automated way, and, in turn, to reduce the impact of those features and increase the accuracy of the predictive model. This work starts from the assumption that frequent control flow patterns in event logs may represent important features that characterize, and therefore explain, a certain prediction. Therefore, in this paper, we (i) employ a novel encoding able to leverage DECLARE constraints in Predictive Process Monitoring and compare the effectiveness of this encoding with Predictive Process Monitoring state-of-the art encodings, in particular for the task of outcome-oriented predictions; (ii) introduce a completely automated pipeline for the identification of the most common features inducing a predictor to make mistakes; and (iii) show the effectiveness of the proposed pipeline in increasing the accuracy of the predictive model by validating it on different real-life datasets.

Adriano Augusto, Raffaele Conforti, Marlon Dumas et al.

Process mining allows analysts to exploit logs of historical executions of business processes to extract insights regarding the actual performance of these processes. One of the most widely studied process mining operations is automated process discovery. An automated process discovery method takes as input an event log, and produces as output a business process model that captures the control-flow relations between tasks that are observed in or implied by the event log. Various automated process discovery methods have been proposed in the past two decades, striking different tradeoffs between scalability, accuracy and complexity of the resulting models. However, these methods have been evaluated in an ad-hoc manner, employing different datasets, experimental setups, evaluation measures and baselines, often leading to incomparable conclusions and sometimes unreproducible results due to the use of closed datasets. This article provides a systematic review and comparative evaluation of automated process discovery methods, using an open-source benchmark and covering twelve publicly-available real-life event logs, twelve proprietary real-life event logs, and nine quality metrics. The results highlight gaps and unexplored tradeoffs in the field, including the lack of scalability of some methods and a strong divergence in their performance with respect to the different quality metrics used.

Andrei Buliga, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Counterfactual explanations suggest what should be different in the input instance to change the outcome of an AI system. When dealing with counterfactual explanations in the field of Predictive Process Monitoring, however, control flow relationships among events have to be carefully considered. A counterfactual, indeed, should not violate control flow relationships among activities (temporal background knowledege). Within the field of Explainability in Predictive Process Monitoring, there have been a series of works regarding counterfactual explanations for outcome-based predictions. However, none of them consider the inclusion of temporal background knowledge when generating these counterfactuals. In this work, we adapt state-of-the-art techniques for counterfactual generation in the domain of XAI that are based on genetic algorithms to consider a series of temporal constraints at runtime. We assume that this temporal background knowledge is given, and we adapt the fitness function, as well as the crossover and mutation operators, to maintain the satisfaction of the constraints. The proposed methods are evaluated with respect to state-of-the-art genetic algorithms for counterfactual generation and the results are presented. We showcase that the inclusion of temporal background knowledge allows the generation of counterfactuals more conformant to the temporal background knowledge, without however losing in terms of the counterfactual traditional quality metrics.

Ivan Donadello, Jonghyeon Ko, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) aims at leveraging historic process execution data to predict how ongoing executions will continue up to their completion. In recent years, PPM techniques for the prediction of the next activities have matured significantly, mainly thanks to the use of Neural Networks (NNs) as a predictor. While their performance is difficult to beat in the general case, there are specific situations where background process knowledge can be helpful. Such knowledge can be leveraged for improving the quality of predictions for exceptional process executions or when the process changes due to a concept drift. In this paper, we present a Symbolic[Neuro] system that leverages background knowledge expressed in terms of a procedural process model to offset the under-sampling in the training data. More specifically, we make predictions using NNs with attention mechanism, an emerging technology in the NN field. The system has been tested on several real-life logs showing an improvement in the performance of the prediction task.

Axel Mezini, Elena Umili, Ivan Donadello et al.

This paper addresses the problem of suffix prediction in Business Process Management (BPM) by proposing a Neuro-Symbolic Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) approach that integrates data-driven learning with temporal logic-based prior knowledge. While recent approaches leverage deep learning models for suffix prediction, they often fail to satisfy even basic logical constraints due to the absence of explicit integration of domain knowledge during training. We propose a novel method to incorporate Linear Temporal Logic over finite traces (LTLf) into the training process of autoregressive sequence predictors. Our approach introduces a differentiable logical loss function, defined using a soft approximation of LTLf semantics and the Gumbel-Softmax trick, which can be combined with standard predictive losses. This ensures the model learns to generate suffixes that are both accurate and logically consistent. Experimental evaluation on three real-world datasets shows that our method improves suffix prediction accuracy and compliance with temporal constraints. We also introduce two variants of the logic loss (local and global) and demonstrate their effectiveness under noisy and realistic settings. While developed in the context of BPM, our framework is applicable to any symbolic sequence generation task and contributes toward advancing Neuro-Symbolic AI.

Ivan Donadello, Paolo Felli, Craig Innes et al.

Traditional conformance checking tasks assume that event data provide a faithful and complete representation of the actual process executions. This assumption has been recently questioned: more and more often events are not traced explicitly, but are instead indirectly obtained as the result of event recognition pipelines, and thus inherently come with uncertainty. In this work, differently from the typical probabilistic interpretation of uncertainty, we consider the relevant case where uncertainty refers to which activity is actually conducted, under a fuzzy semantics. In this novel setting, we consider the problem of checking whether fuzzy event data conform with declarative temporal rules specified as Declare patterns or, more generally, as formulae of linear temporal logic over finite traces (LTLf). This requires to relax the assumption that at each instant only one activity is executed, and to correspondingly redefine boolean operators of the logic with a fuzzy semantics. Specifically, we provide a threefold contribution. First, we define a fuzzy counterpart of LTLf tailored to our purpose. Second, we cast conformance checking over fuzzy logs as a verification problem in this logic. Third, we provide a proof-of-concept, efficient implementation based on the PyTorch Python library, suited to check conformance of multiple fuzzy traces at once.

Williams Rizzi, Marco Comuzzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino et al.

Explainability is motivated by the lack of transparency of black-box Machine Learning approaches, which do not foster trust and acceptance of Machine Learning algorithms. This also happens in the Predictive Process Monitoring field, where predictions, obtained by applying Machine Learning techniques, need to be explained to users, so as to gain their trust and acceptance. In this work, we carry on a user evaluation on explanation approaches for Predictive Process Monitoring aiming at investigating whether and how the explanations provided (i) are understandable; (ii) are useful in decision making tasks;(iii) can be further improved for process analysts, with different Machine Learning expertise levels. The results of the user evaluation show that, although explanation plots are overall understandable and useful for decision making tasks for Business Process Management users -- with and without experience in Machine Learning -- differences exist in the comprehension and usage of different plots, as well as in the way users with different Machine Learning expertise understand and use them.

Anti Alman, Fabrizio Maria Maggi, Marco Montali et al.

Business process monitoring approaches have thus far mainly focused on monitoring the execution of a process with respect to a single process model. However, in some cases it is necessary to consider multiple process specifications simultaneously. In addition, these specifications can be procedural, declarative, or a combination of both. For example, in the medical domain, a clinical guideline describing the treatment of a specific disease cannot account for all possible co-factors that can coexist for a specific patient and therefore additional constraints may need to be considered. In some cases, these constraints may be incompatible with clinical guidelines, therefore requiring the violation of either the guidelines or the constraints. In this paper, we propose a solution for monitoring the interplay of hybrid process specifications expressed as a combination of (data-aware) Petri nets and temporal logic rules. During the process execution, if these specifications are in conflict with each other, it is possible to violate some of them. The monitoring system is equipped with a violation cost model according to which the system can recommend the next course of actions in a way that would either avoid possible violations or minimize the total cost of violations.

Giacomo Bergami, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Business process deviance refers to the phenomenon whereby a subset of the executions of a business process deviate, in a negative or positive way, with respect to {their} expected or desirable outcomes. Deviant executions of a business process include those that violate compliance rules, or executions that undershoot or exceed performance targets. Deviance mining is concerned with uncovering the reasons for deviant executions by analyzing event logs stored by the systems supporting the execution of a business process. In this paper, the problem of explaining deviations in business processes is first investigated by using features based on sequential and declarative patterns, and a combination of them. Then, the explanations are further improved by leveraging the data attributes of events and traces in event logs through features based on pure data attribute values and data-aware declarative rules. The explanations characterizing the deviances are then extracted by direct and indirect methods for rule induction. Using real-life logs from multiple domains, a range of feature types and different forms of decision rules are evaluated in terms of their ability to accurately discriminate between non-deviant and deviant executions of a process as well as in terms of understandability of the final outcome returned to the users.

Federico Chesani, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

As the need to understand and formalise business processes into a model has grown over the last years, the process discovery research field has gained more and more importance, developing two different classes of approaches to model representation: procedural and declarative. Orthogonally to this classification, the vast majority of works envisage the discovery task as a one-class supervised learning process guided by the traces that are recorded into an input log. In this work instead, we focus on declarative processes and embrace the less-popular view of process discovery as a binary supervised learning task, where the input log reports both examples of the normal system execution, and traces representing "stranger" behaviours according to the domain semantics. We therefore deepen how the valuable information brought by both these two sets can be extracted and formalised into a model that is "optimal" according to user-defined goals. Our approach, namely NegDis, is evaluated w.r.t. other relevant works in this field, and shows promising results as regards both the performance and the quality of the obtained solution.

Williams Rizzi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini et al.

Existing well investigated Predictive Process Monitoring techniques typically construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make Predictive Process Monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviours over time. As a solution to this problem, we evaluate the use of three different strategies that allow the periodic rediscovery or incremental construction of the predictive model so as to exploit new available data. The evaluation focuses on the performance of the new learned predictive models, in terms of accuracy and time, against the original one, and uses a number of real and synthetic datasets with and without explicit Concept Drift. The results provide an evidence of the potential of incremental learning algorithms for predicting process monitoring in real environments.

Volodymyr Leno, Adriano Augusto, Marlon Dumas et al.

Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a technology to automate routine work such as copying data across applications or filling in document templates using data from multiple applications. RPA tools allow organizations to automate a wide range of routines. However, identifying and scoping routines that can be automated using RPA tools is time consuming. Manual identification of candidate routines via interviews, walk-throughs, or job shadowing allow analysts to identify the most visible routines, but these methods are not suitable when it comes to identifying the long tail of routines in an organization. This article proposes an approach to discover automatable routines from logs of user interactions with IT systems and to synthesize executable specifications for such routines. The approach starts by discovering frequent routines at a control-flow level (candidate routines). It then determines which of these candidate routines are automatable and it synthetizes an executable specification for each such routine. Finally, it identifies semantically equivalent routines so as to produce a set of non-redundant automatable routines. The article reports on an evaluation of the approach using a combination of synthetic and real-life logs. The evaluation results show that the approach can discover automatable routines that are known to be present in a UI log, and that it identifies automatable routines that users recognize as such in real-life logs.

Volodymyr Leno, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is a technology for automating repetitive routines consisting of sequences of user interactions with one or more applications. In order to fully exploit the opportunities opened by RPA, companies need to discover which specific routines may be automated, and how. In this setting, this paper addresses the problem of analyzing User Interaction (UI) logs in order to discover routines where a user transfers data from one spreadsheet or (Web) form to another. The paper maps this problem to that of discovering data transformations by example - a problem for which several techniques are available. The paper shows that a naive application of a state-of-the-art technique for data transformation discovery is computationally inefficient. Accordingly, the paper proposes two optimizations that take advantage of the information in the UI log and the fact that data transfers across applications typically involve copying alphabetic and numeric tokens separately. The proposed approach and its optimizations are evaluated using UI logs that replicate a real-life repetitive data transfer routine.

Stephan A. Fahrenkrog-Petersen, Niek Tax, Irene Teinemaa et al.

Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood that it will lead to an undesired outcome.These techniques, however, focus on generating predictions and do not prescribe when and how process workers should intervene to decrease the cost of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive monitoring with the ability to generate alarms that trigger interventions to prevent an undesired outcome or mitigate its effect. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit trade-off of generating alarms. We show how to optimize the generation of alarms given an event log of past process executions and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approaches are empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs. The experimental results show that the net cost of undesired outcomes can be minimized by changing the threshold for generating alarms, as the process instance progresses. Moreover, introducing delays for triggering alarms, instead of triggering them as soon as the probability of an undesired outcome exceeds a threshold, leads to lower net costs.

Diego Calvanese, Marlon Dumas, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

The Decision Model and Notation (DMN) is a recent OMG standard for the elicitation and representation of decision models, and for managing their interconnection with business processes. DMN builds on the notion of decision tables, and their combination into more complex decision requirements graphs (DRGs), which bridge between business process models and decision logic models. DRGs may rely on additional, external business knowledge models, whose functioning is not part of the standard. In this work, we consider one of the most important types of business knowledge, namely background knowledge that conceptually accounts for the structural aspects of the domain of interest, and propose decision knowledge bases (DKBs), which semantically combine DRGs modeled in DMN, and domain knowledge captured by means of first-order logic with datatypes. We provide a logic-based semantics for such an integration, and formalize different DMN reasoning tasks for DKBs. We then consider background knowledge formulated as a description logic ontology with datatypes, and show how the main verification tasks for DMN in this enriched setting can be formalized as standard DL reasoning services, and actually carried out in ExpTime. We discuss the effectiveness of our framework on a case study in maritime security.

Fabrizio Maria Maggi, Andrea Marrella, Fredrik Milani et al.

Process mining methods allow analysts to use logs of historical executions of business processes in order to gain knowledge about the actual behavior of these processes. One of the most widely studied process mining operations is automated process discovery. An event log is taken as input by an automated process discovery method and produces a business process model as output that captures the control-flow relations between tasks that are described by the event log. In this setting, this paper provides a systematic comparative evaluation of existing implementations of automated process discovery methods with domain experts by using a real-life event log extracted from an international software engineering company and four quality metrics. The evaluation results highlight gaps and unexplored trade-offs in the field and allow researchers to improve the lacks in the automated process discovery methods in terms of usability of process discovery techniques in industry.

Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

A characteristic of existing predictive process monitoring techniques is to first construct a predictive model based on past process executions, and then use it to predict the future of new ongoing cases, without the possibility of updating it with new cases when they complete their execution. This can make predictive process monitoring too rigid to deal with the variability of processes working in real environments that continuously evolve and/or exhibit new variant behaviors over time. As a solution to this problem, we propose the use of algorithms that allow the incremental construction of the predictive model. These incremental learning algorithms update the model whenever new cases become available so that the predictive model evolves over time to fit the current circumstances. The algorithms have been implemented using different case encoding strategies and evaluated on a number of real and synthetic datasets. The results provide a first evidence of the potential of incremental learning strategies for predicting process monitoring in real environments, and of the impact of different case encoding strategies in this setting.

Chiara Di Francescomarino, Chiara Ghidini, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

Predictive process monitoring has recently gained traction in academia and is maturing also in companies. However, with the growing body of research, it might be daunting for companies to navigate in this domain in order to find, provided certain data, what can be predicted and what methods to use. The main objective of this paper is developing a value-driven framework for classifying existing work on predictive process monitoring. This objective is achieved by systematically identifying, categorizing, and analyzing existing approaches for predictive process monitoring. The review is then used to develop a value-driven framework that can support organizations to navigate in the predictive process monitoring field and help them to find value and exploit the opportunities enabled by these analysis techniques.

Irene Teinemaa, Niek Tax, Massimiliano de Leoni et al.

Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a process in order to predict the future state of ongoing cases thereof. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a case, the likelihood that the case will end up in an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, do not take into account what process workers may do with the generated predictions in order to decrease the likelihood of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive process monitoring approaches with the concepts of alarms, interventions, compensations, and mitigation effects. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit tradeoffs of applying prescriptive process monitoring in a given setting. The paper also outlines an approach to optimize the generation of alarms given a dataset and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approach is empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs.

Irene Teinemaa, Marlon Dumas, Anna Leontjeva et al.

Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments where users make decisions and take actions in response to the predictions they receive, it is equally important to optimize the stability of the successive predictions made for each case. To this end, this paper defines a notion of temporal stability for binary classification tasks in predictive process monitoring and evaluates existing methods with respect to both temporal stability and accuracy. We find that methods based on XGBoost and LSTM neural networks exhibit the highest temporal stability. We then show that temporal stability can be enhanced by hyperparameter-optimizing random forests and XGBoost classifiers with respect to inter-run stability. Finally, we show that time series smoothing techniques can further enhance temporal stability at the expense of slightly lower accuracy.

Irene Teinemaa, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Predictive business process monitoring refers to the act of making predictions about the future state of ongoing cases of a business process, based on their incomplete execution traces and logs of historical (completed) traces. Motivated by the increasingly pervasive availability of fine-grained event data about business process executions, the problem of predictive process monitoring has received substantial attention in the past years. In particular, a considerable number of methods have been put forward to address the problem of outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring, which refers to classifying each ongoing case of a process according to a given set of possible categorical outcomes - e.g., Will the customer complain or not? Will an order be delivered, canceled or withdrawn? Unfortunately, different authors have used different datasets, experimental settings, evaluation measures and baselines to assess their proposals, resulting in poor comparability and an unclear picture of the relative merits and applicability of different methods. To address this gap, this article presents a systematic review and taxonomy of outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring methods, and a comparative experimental evaluation of eleven representative methods using a benchmark covering 24 predictive process monitoring tasks based on nine real-life event logs.

Hoang Nguyen, Marlon Dumas, Marcello La Rosa et al.

Business process deviance refers to the phenomenon whereby a subset of the executions of a business process deviate, in a negative or positive way, with respect to its expected or desirable outcomes. Deviant executions of a business process include those that violate compliance rules, or executions that undershoot or exceed performance targets. Deviance mining is concerned with uncovering the reasons for deviant executions by analyzing business process event logs. This article provides a systematic review and comparative evaluation of deviance mining approaches based on a family of data mining techniques known as sequence classification. Using real-life logs from multiple domains, we evaluate a range of feature types and classification methods in terms of their ability to accurately discriminate between normal and deviant executions of a process. We also analyze the interestingness of the rule sets extracted using different methods. We observe that feature sets extracted using pattern mining techniques only slightly outperform simpler feature sets based on counts of individual activity occurrences in a trace.

Chiara Di Francescomarino, Marlon Dumas, Fabrizio Maria Maggi et al.

Business process enactment is generally supported by information systems that record data about process executions, which can be extracted as event logs. Predictive process monitoring is concerned with exploiting such event logs to predict how running (uncompleted) cases will unfold up to their completion. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring framework for estimating the probability that a given predicate will be fulfilled upon completion of a running case. The predicate can be, for example, a temporal logic constraint or a time constraint, or any predicate that can be evaluated over a completed trace. The framework takes into account both the sequence of events observed in the current trace, as well as data attributes associated to these events. The prediction problem is approached in two phases. First, prefixes of previous traces are clustered according to control flow information. Secondly, a classifier is built for each cluster using event data to discriminate between fulfillments and violations. At runtime, a prediction is made on a running case by mapping it to a cluster and applying the corresponding classifier. The framework has been implemented in the ProM toolset and validated on a log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital.

Andrea Burattin, Fabrizio Maria Maggi, Alessandro Sperduti

Process mining is a family of techniques that aim at analyzing business process execution data recorded in event logs. Conformance checking is a branch of this discipline embracing approaches for verifying whether the behavior of a process, as recorded in a log, is in line with some expected behaviors provided in the form of a process model. The majority of these approaches require the input process model to be procedural (e.g., a Petri net). However, in turbulent environments, characterized by high variability, the process behavior is less stable and predictable. In these environments, procedural process models are less suitable to describe a business process. Declarative specifications, working in an open world assumption, allow the modeler to express several possible execution paths as a compact set of constraints. Any process execution that does not contradict these constraints is allowed. One of the open challenges in the context of conformance checking with declarative models is the capability of supporting multi-perspective specifications. In this paper, we close this gap by providing a framework for conformance checking based on MP-Declare, a multi-perspective version of the declarative process modeling language Declare. The approach has been implemented in the process mining tool ProM and has been experimented in three real life case studies.

Fabrizio Maria Maggi, Chiara Di Francescomarino, Marlon Dumas et al.

Modern information systems that support complex business processes generally maintain significant amounts of process execution data, particularly records of events corresponding to the execution of activities (event logs). In this paper, we present an approach to analyze such event logs in order to predictively monitor business goals during business process execution. At any point during an execution of a process, the user can define business goals in the form of linear temporal logic rules. When an activity is being executed, the framework identifies input data values that are more (or less) likely to lead to the achievement of each business goal. Unlike reactive compliance monitoring approaches that detect violations only after they have occurred, our predictive monitoring approach provides early advice so that users can steer ongoing process executions towards the achievement of business goals. In other words, violations are predicted (and potentially prevented) rather than merely detected. The approach has been implemented in the ProM process mining toolset and validated on a real-life log pertaining to the treatment of cancer patients in a large hospital.