Azul Garza

Kin G. Olivares, Azul Garza, David Luo et al.

Large collections of time series data are commonly organized into structures with different levels of aggregation; examples include product and geographical groupings. It is often important to ensure that the forecasts are coherent so that the predicted values at disaggregate levels add up to the aggregate forecast. The growing interest of the Machine Learning community in hierarchical forecasting systems indicates that we are in a propitious moment to ensure that scientific endeavors are grounded on sound baselines. For this reason, we put forward the HierarchicalForecast library, which contains preprocessed publicly available datasets, evaluation metrics, and a compiled set of statistical baseline models. Our Python-based reference framework aims to bridge the gap between statistical and econometric modeling, and Machine Learning forecasting research. Code and documentation are available in https://github.com/Nixtla/hierarchicalforecast.

Azul Garza, Cristian Challu, Max Mergenthaler-Canseco

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

Azul Garza, Renée Rosillo

We introduce TimeCopilot, the first open-source agentic framework for forecasting that combines multiple Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) with Large Language Models (LLMs) through a single unified API. TimeCopilot automates the forecasting pipeline: feature analysis, model selection, cross-validation, and forecast generation, while providing natural language explanations and supporting direct queries about the future. The framework is LLM-agnostic, compatible with both commercial and open-source models, and supports ensembles across diverse forecasting families. Results on the large-scale GIFT-Eval benchmark show that TimeCopilot achieves state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting performance at low cost. Our framework provides a practical foundation for reproducible, explainable, and accessible agentic forecasting systems.