Edouard Fouché

Shiqiao Zhou, Holger Schöner, Zipeng Wu et al.

Time series forecasting relies on historical patterns, but real-world series often exhibit non-stationarity and regime shifts that challenge fully parametric forecasters. Inspired by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), recent work augments forecasters by retrieving relevant historical segments and using them as external evidence at inference time. However, due to the intrinsic non-stationarity of real-world time series, a highly similar past segment does not necessarily imply a similar future, rendering similarity-only retrieval brittle and prone to redundancy. We propose Stationarity-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting (SARAF), a framework that adaptively balances relevance and diversity in retrieval. SARAF first forms a candidate pool via temporal similarity with time-aligned enhancement, then applies a diversity-aware selection strategy to cover heterogeneous historical regimes, with the diversification strength automatically modulated by dataset-level stationarity. Moreover, SARAF uses stationarity-aware aggregation to fuse the retrieved futures. Extensive experiments on eight real-world datasets show that SARAF achieves competitive forecasting performance and improves average accuracy and robustness over strong baselines, with particularly clear benefits under challenging non-stationary settings. Code: https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/SARAF.

Marco Heyden, Edouard Fouché, Vadim Arzamasov et al.

Change detection is of fundamental importance when analyzing data streams. Detecting changes both quickly and accurately enables monitoring and prediction systems to react, e.g., by issuing an alarm or by updating a learning algorithm. However, detecting changes is challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In high-dimensional data, change detectors should not only be able to identify when changes happen, but also in which subspace they occur. Ideally, one should also quantify how severe they are. Our approach, ABCD, has these properties. ABCD learns an encoder-decoder model and monitors its accuracy over a window of adaptive size. ABCD derives a change score based on Bernstein's inequality to detect deviations in terms of accuracy, which indicate changes. Our experiments demonstrate that ABCD outperforms its best competitor by up to 20% in F1-score on average. It can also accurately estimate changes' subspace, together with a severity measure that correlates with the ground truth.

Marco Heyden, Vadim Arzamasov, Edouard Fouché et al.

We study the stochastic Budgeted Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem, where a player chooses from $K$ arms with unknown expected rewards and costs. The goal is to maximize the total reward under a budget constraint. A player thus seeks to choose the arm with the highest reward-cost ratio as often as possible. Current state-of-the-art policies for this problem have several issues, which we illustrate. To overcome them, we propose a new upper confidence bound (UCB) sampling policy, $ω$-UCB, that uses asymmetric confidence intervals. These intervals scale with the distance between the sample mean and the bounds of a random variable, yielding a more accurate and tight estimation of the reward-cost ratio compared to our competitors. We show that our approach has logarithmic regret and consistently outperforms existing policies in synthetic and real settings.

Florian Kalinke, Marco Heyden, Georg Gntuni et al.

Detecting changes is of fundamental importance when analyzing data streams and has many applications, e.g., in predictive maintenance, fraud detection, or medicine. A principled approach to detect changes is to compare the distributions of observations within the stream to each other via hypothesis testing. Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), a (semi-)metric on the space of probability distributions, provides powerful non-parametric two-sample tests on kernel-enriched domains. In particular, MMD is able to detect any disparity between distributions under mild conditions. However, classical MMD estimators suffer from a quadratic runtime complexity, which renders their direct use for change detection in data streams impractical. In this article, we propose a new change detection algorithm, called Maximum Mean Discrepancy on Exponential Windows (MMDEW), that combines the benefits of MMD with an efficient computation based on exponential windows. We prove that MMDEW enjoys polylogarithmic runtime and logarithmic memory complexity and show empirically that it outperforms the state of the art on benchmark data streams.

Shiqiao Zhou, Holger Schöner, Huanbo Lyu et al.

Time series forecasting is a long-standing and highly challenging research topic. Recently, driven by the rise of large language models (LLMs), research has increasingly shifted from purely time series methods toward harnessing textual modalities to enhance forecasting performance. However, the vast discrepancy between text and temporal data often leads current multimodal architectures to over-emphasise one modality while neglecting the other, resulting in information loss that harms forecasting performance. To address this modality imbalance, we introduce BALM-TSF (Balanced Multimodal Alignment for LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting), a lightweight time series forecasting framework that maintains balance between the two modalities. Specifically, raw time series are processed by the time series encoder, while descriptive statistics of raw time series are fed to an LLM with learnable prompt, producing compact textual embeddings. To ensure balanced cross-modal context alignment of time series and textual embeddings, a simple yet effective scaling strategy combined with a contrastive objective then maps these textual embeddings into the latent space of the time series embeddings. Finally, the aligned textual semantic embeddings and time series embeddings are together integrated for forecasting. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks show that, with minimal trainable parameters, BALM-TSF achieves state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and few-shot forecasting, confirming its ability to harness complementary information from text and time series. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/BALM-TSF.

Junpei Komiyama, Edouard Fouché, Junya Honda

We consider nonstationary multi-armed bandit problems where the model parameters of the arms change over time. We introduce the adaptive resetting bandit (ADR-bandit), a bandit algorithm class that leverages adaptive windowing techniques from literature on data streams. We first provide new guarantees on the quality of estimators resulting from adaptive windowing techniques, which are of independent interest. Furthermore, we conduct a finite-time analysis of ADR-bandit in two typical environments: an abrupt environment where changes occur instantaneously and a gradual environment where changes occur progressively. We demonstrate that ADR-bandit has nearly optimal performance when abrupt or gradual changes occur in a coordinated manner that we call global changes. We demonstrate that forced exploration is unnecessary when we assume such global changes. Unlike the existing nonstationary bandit algorithms, ADR-bandit has optimal performance in stationary environments as well as nonstationary environments with global changes. Our experiments show that the proposed algorithms outperform the existing approaches in synthetic and real-world environments.

Edouard Fouché, Florian Kalinke, Klemens Böhm

In the real world, data streams are ubiquitous -- think of network traffic or sensor data. Mining patterns, e.g., outliers or clusters, from such data must take place in real time. This is challenging because (1) streams often have high dimensionality, and (2) the data characteristics may change over time. Existing approaches tend to focus on only one aspect, either high dimensionality or the specifics of the streaming setting. For static data, a common approach to deal with high dimensionality -- known as subspace search -- extracts low-dimensional, `interesting' projections (subspaces), in which patterns are easier to find. In this paper, we address both Challenge (1) and (2) by generalising subspace search to data streams. Our approach, Streaming Greedy Maximum Random Deviation (SGMRD), monitors interesting subspaces in high-dimensional data streams. It leverages novel multivariate dependency estimators and monitoring techniques based on bandit theory. We show that the benefits of SGMRD are twofold: (i) It monitors subspaces efficiently, and (ii) this improves the results of downstream data mining tasks, such as outlier detection. Our experiments, performed against synthetic and real-world data, demonstrate that SGMRD outperforms its competitors by a large margin.

Edouard Fouché, Klemens Böhm

Estimating the dependency of variables is a fundamental task in data analysis. Identifying the relevant attributes in databases leads to better data understanding and also improves the performance of learning algorithms, both in terms of runtime and quality. In data streams, dependency monitoring provides key insights into the underlying process, but is challenging. In this paper, we propose Monte Carlo Dependency Estimation (MCDE), a theoretical framework to estimate multivariate dependency in static and dynamic data. MCDE quantifies dependency as the average discrepancy between marginal and conditional distributions via Monte Carlo simulations. Based on this framework, we present Mann-Whitney P (MWP), a novel dependency estimator. We show that MWP satisfies a number of desirable properties and can accommodate any kind of numerical data. We demonstrate the superiority of our estimator by comparing it to the state-of-the-art multivariate dependency measures.