Bernhard Schölkopf

Zhijing Jin, Sydney Levine, Fernando Gonzalez et al. · allen-ai, cmu

AI systems are becoming increasingly intertwined with human life. In order to effectively collaborate with humans and ensure safety, AI systems need to be able to understand, interpret and predict human moral judgments and decisions. Human moral judgments are often guided by rules, but not always. A central challenge for AI safety is capturing the flexibility of the human moral mind -- the ability to determine when a rule should be broken, especially in novel or unusual situations. In this paper, we present a novel challenge set consisting of rule-breaking question answering (RBQA) of cases that involve potentially permissible rule-breaking -- inspired by recent moral psychology studies. Using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) as a basis, we propose a novel moral chain of thought (MORALCOT) prompting strategy that combines the strengths of LLMs with theories of moral reasoning developed in cognitive science to predict human moral judgments. MORALCOT outperforms seven existing LLMs by 6.2% F1, suggesting that modeling human reasoning might be necessary to capture the flexibility of the human moral mind. We also conduct a detailed error analysis to suggest directions for future work to improve AI safety using RBQA. Our data is open-sourced at https://huggingface.co/datasets/feradauto/MoralExceptQA and code at https://github.com/feradauto/MoralCoT

Jingwei Ni, Zhijing Jin, Markus Freitag et al. · deepmind, eth-zurich

Human-translated text displays distinct features from naturally written text in the same language. This phenomena, known as translationese, has been argued to confound the machine translation (MT) evaluation. Yet, we find that existing work on translationese neglects some important factors and the conclusions are mostly correlational but not causal. In this work, we collect CausalMT, a dataset where the MT training data are also labeled with the human translation directions. We inspect two critical factors, the train-test direction match (whether the human translation directions in the training and test sets are aligned), and data-model direction match (whether the model learns in the same direction as the human translation direction in the dataset). We show that these two factors have a large causal effect on the MT performance, in addition to the test-model direction mismatch highlighted by existing work on the impact of translationese. In light of our findings, we provide a set of suggestions for MT training and evaluation. Our code and data are at https://github.com/EdisonNi-hku/CausalMT

Zhijing Jin, Jiarui Liu, Zhiheng Lyu et al.

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 200K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.

Lars Lorch, Scott Sussex, Jonas Rothfuss et al.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

Nico Gürtler, Sebastian Blaes, Pavel Kolev et al.

Learning policies from previously recorded data is a promising direction for real-world robotics tasks, as online learning is often infeasible. Dexterous manipulation in particular remains an open problem in its general form. The combination of offline reinforcement learning with large diverse datasets, however, has the potential to lead to a breakthrough in this challenging domain analogously to the rapid progress made in supervised learning in recent years. To coordinate the efforts of the research community toward tackling this problem, we propose a benchmark including: i) a large collection of data for offline learning from a dexterous manipulation platform on two tasks, obtained with capable RL agents trained in simulation; ii) the option to execute learned policies on a real-world robotic system and a simulation for efficient debugging. We evaluate prominent open-sourced offline reinforcement learning algorithms on the datasets and provide a reproducible experimental setup for offline reinforcement learning on real systems.

Zeju Qiu, Weiyang Liu, Haiwen Feng et al. · cambridge

Large text-to-image diffusion models have impressive capabilities in generating photorealistic images from text prompts. How to effectively guide or control these powerful models to perform different downstream tasks becomes an important open problem. To tackle this challenge, we introduce a principled finetuning method -- Orthogonal Finetuning (OFT), for adapting text-to-image diffusion models to downstream tasks. Unlike existing methods, OFT can provably preserve hyperspherical energy which characterizes the pairwise neuron relationship on the unit hypersphere. We find that this property is crucial for preserving the semantic generation ability of text-to-image diffusion models. To improve finetuning stability, we further propose Constrained Orthogonal Finetuning (COFT) which imposes an additional radius constraint to the hypersphere. Specifically, we consider two important finetuning text-to-image tasks: subject-driven generation where the goal is to generate subject-specific images given a few images of a subject and a text prompt, and controllable generation where the goal is to enable the model to take in additional control signals. We empirically show that our OFT framework outperforms existing methods in generation quality and convergence speed.

Laurence Illing Midgley, Vincent Stimper, Gregor N. C. Simm et al. · cambridge

Normalizing flows are tractable density models that can approximate complicated target distributions, e.g. Boltzmann distributions of physical systems. However, current methods for training flows either suffer from mode-seeking behavior, use samples from the target generated beforehand by expensive MCMC methods, or use stochastic losses that have high variance. To avoid these problems, we augment flows with annealed importance sampling (AIS) and minimize the mass-covering $α$-divergence with $α=2$, which minimizes importance weight variance. Our method, Flow AIS Bootstrap (FAB), uses AIS to generate samples in regions where the flow is a poor approximation of the target, facilitating the discovery of new modes. We apply FAB to multimodal targets and show that we can approximate them very accurately where previous methods fail. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to learn the Boltzmann distribution of the alanine dipeptide molecule using only the unnormalized target density, without access to samples generated via Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations: FAB produces better results than training via maximum likelihood on MD samples while using 100 times fewer target evaluations. After reweighting the samples, we obtain unbiased histograms of dihedral angles that are almost identical to the ground truth.

Florian Wenzel, Andrea Dittadi, Peter Vincent Gehler et al. · eth-zurich

Since out-of-distribution generalization is a generally ill-posed problem, various proxy targets (e.g., calibration, adversarial robustness, algorithmic corruptions, invariance across shifts) were studied across different research programs resulting in different recommendations. While sharing the same aspirational goal, these approaches have never been tested under the same experimental conditions on real data. In this paper, we take a unified view of previous work, highlighting message discrepancies that we address empirically, and providing recommendations on how to measure the robustness of a model and how to improve it. To this end, we collect 172 publicly available dataset pairs for training and out-of-distribution evaluation of accuracy, calibration error, adversarial attacks, environment invariance, and synthetic corruptions. We fine-tune over 31k networks, from nine different architectures in the many- and few-shot setting. Our findings confirm that in- and out-of-distribution accuracies tend to increase jointly, but show that their relation is largely dataset-dependent, and in general more nuanced and more complex than posited by previous, smaller scale studies.

Julius von Kügelgen, Michel Besserve, Liang Wendong et al. · eth-zurich

We study causal representation learning, the task of inferring latent causal variables and their causal relations from high-dimensional mixtures of the variables. Prior work relies on weak supervision, in the form of counterfactual pre- and post-intervention views or temporal structure; places restrictive assumptions, such as linearity, on the mixing function or latent causal model; or requires partial knowledge of the generative process, such as the causal graph or intervention targets. We instead consider the general setting in which both the causal model and the mixing function are nonparametric. The learning signal takes the form of multiple datasets, or environments, arising from unknown interventions in the underlying causal model. Our goal is to identify both the ground truth latents and their causal graph up to a set of ambiguities which we show to be irresolvable from interventional data. We study the fundamental setting of two causal variables and prove that the observational distribution and one perfect intervention per node suffice for identifiability, subject to a genericity condition. This condition rules out spurious solutions that involve fine-tuning of the intervened and observational distributions, mirroring similar conditions for nonlinear cause-effect inference. For an arbitrary number of variables, we show that at least one pair of distinct perfect interventional domains per node guarantees identifiability. Further, we demonstrate that the strengths of causal influences among the latent variables are preserved by all equivalent solutions, rendering the inferred representation appropriate for drawing causal conclusions from new data. Our study provides the first identifiability results for the general nonparametric setting with unknown interventions, and elucidates what is possible and impossible for causal representation learning without more direct supervision.

Cian Eastwood, Alexander Robey, Shashank Singh et al. · eth-zurich

Domain generalization (DG) seeks predictors which perform well on unseen test distributions by leveraging data drawn from multiple related training distributions or domains. To achieve this, DG is commonly formulated as an average- or worst-case problem over the set of possible domains. However, predictors that perform well on average lack robustness while predictors that perform well in the worst case tend to be overly-conservative. To address this, we propose a new probabilistic framework for DG where the goal is to learn predictors that perform well with high probability. Our key idea is that distribution shifts seen during training should inform us of probable shifts at test time, which we realize by explicitly relating training and test domains as draws from the same underlying meta-distribution. To achieve probable DG, we propose a new optimization problem called Quantile Risk Minimization (QRM). By minimizing the $α$-quantile of predictor's risk distribution over domains, QRM seeks predictors that perform well with probability $α$. To solve QRM in practice, we propose the Empirical QRM (EQRM) algorithm and provide: (i) a generalization bound for EQRM; and (ii) the conditions under which EQRM recovers the causal predictor as $α\to 1$. In our experiments, we introduce a more holistic quantile-focused evaluation protocol for DG and demonstrate that EQRM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on datasets from WILDS and DomainBed.

Vincent Stimper, David Liu, Andrew Campbell et al. · cambridge

Normalizing flows model probability distributions through an expressive tractable density. They transform a simple base distribution, such as a Gaussian, through a sequence of invertible functions, which are referred to as layers. These layers typically use neural networks to become very expressive. Flows are ubiquitous in machine learning and have been applied to image generation, text modeling, variational inference, approximating Boltzmann distributions, and many other problems. Here, we present normflows, a Python package for normalizing flows. It allows to build normalizing flow models from a suite of base distributions, flow layers, and neural networks. The package is implemented in the popular deep learning framework PyTorch, which simplifies the integration of flows in larger machine learning models or pipelines. It supports most of the common normalizing flow architectures, such as Real NVP, Glow, Masked Autoregressive Flows, Neural Spline Flows, Residual Flows, and many more. The package can be easily installed via pip and the code is publicly available on GitHub.

Ronan Perry, Julius von Kügelgen, Bernhard Schölkopf · eth-zurich

Machine learning approaches commonly rely on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. In reality, however, this assumption is almost always violated due to distribution shifts between environments. Although valuable learning signals can be provided by heterogeneous data from changing distributions, it is also known that learning under arbitrary (adversarial) changes is impossible. Causality provides a useful framework for modeling distribution shifts, since causal models encode both observational and interventional distributions. In this work, we explore the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis, which posits that distribution shifts occur due to a small number of changing causal conditionals. Motivated by this idea, we apply it to learning causal structure from heterogeneous environments, where i.i.d. data only allows for learning an equivalence class of graphs without restrictive assumptions. We propose the Mechanism Shift Score (MSS), a score-based approach amenable to various empirical estimators, which provably identifies the entire causal structure with high probability if the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis holds. Empirically, we verify behavior predicted by the theory and compare multiple estimators and score functions to identify the best approaches in practice. Compared to other methods, we show how MSS bridges a gap by both being nonparametric as well as explicitly leveraging sparse changes.

David F. Jenny, Yann Billeter, Mrinmaya Sachan et al. · eth-zurich

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked intense debate regarding the prevalence of bias in these models and its mitigation. Yet, as exemplified by both results on debiasing methods in the literature and reports of alignment-related defects from the wider community, bias remains a poorly understood topic despite its practical relevance. To enhance the understanding of the internal causes of bias, we analyse LLM bias through the lens of causal fairness analysis, which enables us to both comprehend the origins of bias and reason about its downstream consequences and mitigation. To operationalize this framework, we propose a prompt-based method for the extraction of confounding and mediating attributes which contribute to the LLM decision process. By applying Activity Dependency Networks (ADNs), we then analyse how these attributes influence an LLM's decision process. We apply our method to LLM ratings of argument quality in political debates. We find that the observed disparate treatment can at least in part be attributed to confounding and mitigating attributes and model misalignment, and discuss the consequences of our findings for human-AI alignment and bias mitigation. Our code and data are at https://github.com/david-jenny/LLM-Political-Study.

Bernhard Schölkopf, Julius von Kügelgen · eth-zurich

We describe basic ideas underlying research to build and understand artificially intelligent systems: from symbolic approaches via statistical learning to interventional models relying on concepts of causality. Some of the hard open problems of machine learning and AI are intrinsically related to causality, and progress may require advances in our understanding of how to model and infer causality from data.

Laurence I. Midgley, Vincent Stimper, Javier Antorán et al. · cambridge, oxford

Coupling normalizing flows allow for fast sampling and density evaluation, making them the tool of choice for probabilistic modeling of physical systems. However, the standard coupling architecture precludes endowing flows that operate on the Cartesian coordinates of atoms with the SE(3) and permutation invariances of physical systems. This work proposes a coupling flow that preserves SE(3) and permutation equivariance by performing coordinate splits along additional augmented dimensions. At each layer, the flow maps atoms' positions into learned SE(3) invariant bases, where we apply standard flow transformations, such as monotonic rational-quadratic splines, before returning to the original basis. Crucially, our flow preserves fast sampling and density evaluation, and may be used to produce unbiased estimates of expectations with respect to the target distribution via importance sampling. When trained on the DW4, LJ13, and QM9-positional datasets, our flow is competitive with equivariant continuous normalizing flows and diffusion models, while allowing sampling more than an order of magnitude faster. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, we are the first to learn the full Boltzmann distribution of alanine dipeptide by only modeling the Cartesian positions of its atoms. Lastly, we demonstrate that our flow can be trained to approximately sample from the Boltzmann distribution of the DW4 and LJ13 particle systems using only their energy functions.

Zhijing Jin, Max Kleiman-Weiner, Giorgio Piatti et al.

We evaluate the moral alignment of LLMs with human preferences in multilingual trolley problems. Building on the Moral Machine experiment, which captures over 40 million human judgments across 200+ countries, we develop a cross-lingual corpus of moral dilemma vignettes in over 100 languages called MultiTP. This dataset enables the assessment of LLMs' decision-making processes in diverse linguistic contexts. Our analysis explores the alignment of 19 different LLMs with human judgments, capturing preferences across six moral dimensions: species, gender, fitness, status, age, and the number of lives involved. By correlating these preferences with the demographic distribution of language speakers and examining the consistency of LLM responses to various prompt paraphrasings, our findings provide insights into cross-lingual and ethical biases of LLMs and their intersection. We discover significant variance in alignment across languages, challenging the assumption of uniform moral reasoning in AI systems and highlighting the importance of incorporating diverse perspectives in AI ethics. The results underscore the need for further research on the integration of multilingual dimensions in responsible AI research to ensure fair and equitable AI interactions worldwide. Our code and data are at https://github.com/causalNLP/moralmachine

Patrik Reizinger, Luigi Gresele, Jack Brady et al. · eth-zurich

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular framework for modeling complex data distributions; they can be efficiently trained via variational inference by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO), at the expense of a gap to the exact (log-)marginal likelihood. While VAEs are commonly used for representation learning, it is unclear why ELBO maximization would yield useful representations, since unregularized maximum likelihood estimation cannot invert the data-generating process. Yet, VAEs often succeed at this task. We seek to elucidate this apparent paradox by studying nonlinear VAEs in the limit of near-deterministic decoders. We first prove that, in this regime, the optimal encoder approximately inverts the decoder -- a commonly used but unproven conjecture -- which we refer to as {\em self-consistency}. Leveraging self-consistency, we show that the ELBO converges to a regularized log-likelihood. This allows VAEs to perform what has recently been termed independent mechanism analysis (IMA): it adds an inductive bias towards decoders with column-orthogonal Jacobians, which helps recovering the true latent factors. The gap between ELBO and log-likelihood is therefore welcome, since it bears unanticipated benefits for nonlinear representation learning. In experiments on synthetic and image data, we show that VAEs uncover the true latent factors when the data generating process satisfies the IMA assumption.

Cian Eastwood, Shashank Singh, Andrei Liviu Nicolicioiu et al. · eth-zurich, mila

To avoid failures on out-of-distribution data, recent works have sought to extract features that have an invariant or stable relationship with the label across domains, discarding "spurious" or unstable features whose relationship with the label changes across domains. However, unstable features often carry complementary information that could boost performance if used correctly in the test domain. In this work, we show how this can be done without test-domain labels. In particular, we prove that pseudo-labels based on stable features provide sufficient guidance for doing so, provided that stable and unstable features are conditionally independent given the label. Based on this theoretical insight, we propose Stable Feature Boosting (SFB), an algorithm for: (i) learning a predictor that separates stable and conditionally-independent unstable features; and (ii) using the stable-feature predictions to adapt the unstable-feature predictions in the test domain. Theoretically, we prove that SFB can learn an asymptotically-optimal predictor without test-domain labels. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SFB on real and synthetic data.

Frederik Träuble, Anirudh Goyal, Nasim Rahaman et al. · mila

Deep neural networks perform well on classification tasks where data streams are i.i.d. and labeled data is abundant. Challenges emerge with non-stationary training data streams such as continual learning. One powerful approach that has addressed this challenge involves pre-training of large encoders on volumes of readily available data, followed by task-specific tuning. Given a new task, however, updating the weights of these encoders is challenging as a large number of weights needs to be fine-tuned, and as a result, they forget information about the previous tasks. In the present work, we propose a model architecture to address this issue, building upon a discrete bottleneck containing pairs of separate and learnable key-value codes. Our paradigm will be to encode; process the representation via a discrete bottleneck; and decode. Here, the input is fed to the pre-trained encoder, the output of the encoder is used to select the nearest keys, and the corresponding values are fed to the decoder to solve the current task. The model can only fetch and re-use a sparse number of these key-value pairs during inference, enabling localized and context-dependent model updates. We theoretically investigate the ability of the discrete key-value bottleneck to minimize the effect of learning under distribution shifts and show that it reduces the complexity of the hypothesis class. We empirically verify the proposed method under challenging class-incremental learning scenarios and show that the proposed model - without any task boundaries - reduces catastrophic forgetting across a wide variety of pre-trained models, outperforming relevant baselines on this task.

Nico Gürtler, Felix Widmaier, Cansu Sancaktar et al. · deepmind

Experimentation on real robots is demanding in terms of time and costs. For this reason, a large part of the reinforcement learning (RL) community uses simulators to develop and benchmark algorithms. However, insights gained in simulation do not necessarily translate to real robots, in particular for tasks involving complex interactions with the environment. The Real Robot Challenge 2022 therefore served as a bridge between the RL and robotics communities by allowing participants to experiment remotely with a real robot - as easily as in simulation. In the last years, offline reinforcement learning has matured into a promising paradigm for learning from pre-collected datasets, alleviating the reliance on expensive online interactions. We therefore asked the participants to learn two dexterous manipulation tasks involving pushing, grasping, and in-hand orientation from provided real-robot datasets. An extensive software documentation and an initial stage based on a simulation of the real set-up made the competition particularly accessible. By giving each team plenty of access budget to evaluate their offline-learned policies on a cluster of seven identical real TriFinger platforms, we organized an exciting competition for machine learners and roboticists alike. In this work we state the rules of the competition, present the methods used by the winning teams and compare their results with a benchmark of state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms on the challenge datasets.

Weiyang Liu, Longhui Yu, Adrian Weller et al. · cambridge

The neural collapse (NC) phenomenon describes an underlying geometric symmetry for deep neural networks, where both deeply learned features and classifiers converge to a simplex equiangular tight frame. It has been shown that both cross-entropy loss and mean square error can provably lead to NC. We remove NC's key assumption on the feature dimension and the number of classes, and then present a generalized neural collapse (GNC) hypothesis that effectively subsumes the original NC. Inspired by how NC characterizes the training target of neural networks, we decouple GNC into two objectives: minimal intra-class variability and maximal inter-class separability. We then use hyperspherical uniformity (which characterizes the degree of uniformity on the unit hypersphere) as a unified framework to quantify these two objectives. Finally, we propose a general objective -- hyperspherical uniformity gap (HUG), which is defined by the difference between inter-class and intra-class hyperspherical uniformity. HUG not only provably converges to GNC, but also decouples GNC into two separate objectives. Unlike cross-entropy loss that couples intra-class compactness and inter-class separability, HUG enjoys more flexibility and serves as a good alternative loss function. Empirical results show that HUG works well in terms of generalization and robustness.

Cian Eastwood, Andrei Liviu Nicolicioiu, Julius von Kügelgen et al. · eth-zurich, mila

In representation learning, a common approach is to seek representations which disentangle the underlying factors of variation. Eastwood & Williams (2018) proposed three metrics for quantifying the quality of such disentangled representations: disentanglement (D), completeness (C) and informativeness (I). In this work, we first connect this DCI framework to two common notions of linear and nonlinear identifiability, thereby establishing a formal link between disentanglement and the closely-related field of independent component analysis. We then propose an extended DCI-ES framework with two new measures of representation quality - explicitness (E) and size (S) - and point out how D and C can be computed for black-box predictors. Our main idea is that the functional capacity required to use a representation is an important but thus-far neglected aspect of representation quality, which we quantify using explicitness or ease-of-use (E). We illustrate the relevance of our extensions on the MPI3D and Cars3D datasets.

Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei, Amir-Hossein Karimi, Bernhard Schölkopf et al. · eth-zurich

Algorithmic recourse aims to disclose the inner workings of the black-box decision process in situations where decisions have significant consequences, by providing recommendations to empower beneficiaries to achieve a more favorable outcome. To ensure an effective remedy, suggested interventions must not only be low-cost but also robust and fair. This goal is accomplished by providing similar explanations to individuals who are alike. This study explores the concept of individual fairness and adversarial robustness in causal algorithmic recourse and addresses the challenge of achieving both. To resolve the challenges, we propose a new framework for defining adversarially robust recourse. The new setting views the protected feature as a pseudometric and demonstrates that individual fairness is a special case of adversarial robustness. Finally, we introduce the fair robust recourse problem to achieve both desirable properties and show how it can be satisfied both theoretically and empirically.

Amir-Hossein Karimi, Krikamol Muandet, Simon Kornblith et al. · eth-zurich

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.

Weiyang Liu, Zhen Liu, Liam Paull et al. · cambridge

This paper considers the problem of unsupervised 3D object reconstruction from in-the-wild single-view images. Due to ambiguity and intrinsic ill-posedness, this problem is inherently difficult to solve and therefore requires strong regularization to achieve disentanglement of different latent factors. Unlike existing works that introduce explicit regularizations into objective functions, we look into a different space for implicit regularization -- the structure of latent space. Specifically, we restrict the structure of latent space to capture a topological causal ordering of latent factors (i.e., representing causal dependency as a directed acyclic graph). We first show that different causal orderings matter for 3D reconstruction, and then explore several approaches to find a task-dependent causal factor ordering. Our experiments demonstrate that the latent space structure indeed serves as an implicit regularization and introduces an inductive bias beneficial for reconstruction.

Cian Eastwood, Julius von Kügelgen, Linus Ericsson et al. · eth-zurich

Self-supervised representation learning often uses data augmentations to induce some invariance to "style" attributes of the data. However, with downstream tasks generally unknown at training time, it is difficult to deduce a priori which attributes of the data are indeed "style" and can be safely discarded. To deal with this, current approaches try to retain some style information by tuning the degree of invariance to some particular task, such as ImageNet object classification. However, prior work has shown that such task-specific tuning can lead to significant performance degradation on other tasks that rely on the discarded style. To address this, we introduce a more principled approach that seeks to disentangle style features rather than discard them. The key idea is to add multiple style embedding spaces where: (i) each is invariant to all-but-one augmentation; and (ii) joint entropy is maximized. We formalize our structured data-augmentation procedure from a causal latent-variable-model perspective, and prove identifiability of both content and individual style variables. We empirically demonstrate the benefits of our approach on both synthetic and real-world data.

Maximilian Seitzer, Max Horn, Andrii Zadaianchuk et al.

Humans naturally decompose their environment into entities at the appropriate level of abstraction to act in the world. Allowing machine learning algorithms to derive this decomposition in an unsupervised way has become an important line of research. However, current methods are restricted to simulated data or require additional information in the form of motion or depth in order to successfully discover objects. In this work, we overcome this limitation by showing that reconstructing features from models trained in a self-supervised manner is a sufficient training signal for object-centric representations to arise in a fully unsupervised way. Our approach, DINOSAUR, significantly out-performs existing image-based object-centric learning models on simulated data and is the first unsupervised object-centric model that scales to real-world datasets such as COCO and PASCAL VOC. DINOSAUR is conceptually simple and shows competitive performance compared to more involved pipelines from the computer vision literature.

Zeju Qiu, Weiyang Liu, Tim Z. Xiao et al. · cambridge

We consider the problem of iterative machine teaching, where a teacher sequentially provides examples based on the status of a learner under a discrete input space (i.e., a pool of finite samples), which greatly limits the teacher's capability. To address this issue, we study iterative teaching under a continuous input space where the input example (i.e., image) can be either generated by solving an optimization problem or drawn directly from a continuous distribution. Specifically, we propose data hallucination teaching (DHT) where the teacher can generate input data intelligently based on labels, the learner's status and the target concept. We study a number of challenging teaching setups (e.g., linear/neural learners in omniscient and black-box settings). Extensive empirical results verify the effectiveness of DHT.

Sidak Pal Singh, Aurelien Lucchi, Thomas Hofmann et al. · eth-zurich

`Double descent' delineates the generalization behaviour of models depending on the regime they belong to: under- or over-parameterized. The current theoretical understanding behind the occurrence of this phenomenon is primarily based on linear and kernel regression models -- with informal parallels to neural networks via the Neural Tangent Kernel. Therefore such analyses do not adequately capture the mechanisms behind double descent in finite-width neural networks, as well as, disregard crucial components -- such as the choice of the loss function. We address these shortcomings by leveraging influence functions in order to derive suitable expressions of the population loss and its lower bound, while imposing minimal assumptions on the form of the parametric model. Our derived bounds bear an intimate connection with the spectrum of the Hessian at the optimum, and importantly, exhibit a double descent behaviour at the interpolation threshold. Building on our analysis, we further investigate how the loss function affects double descent -- and thus uncover interesting properties of neural networks and their Hessian spectra near the interpolation threshold.

Flavio Schneider, Ojasv Kamal, Zhijing Jin et al.

Recent years have seen the rapid development of large generative models for text; however, much less research has explored the connection between text and another "language" of communication -- music. Music, much like text, can convey emotions, stories, and ideas, and has its own unique structure and syntax. In our work, we bridge text and music via a text-to-music generation model that is highly efficient, expressive, and can handle long-term structure. Specifically, we develop Moûsai, a cascading two-stage latent diffusion model that can generate multiple minutes of high-quality stereo music at 48kHz from textual descriptions. Moreover, our model features high efficiency, which enables real-time inference on a single consumer GPU with a reasonable speed. Through experiments and property analyses, we show our model's competence over a variety of criteria compared with existing music generation models. Lastly, to promote the open-source culture, we provide a collection of open-source libraries with the hope of facilitating future work in the field. We open-source the following: Codes: https://github.com/archinetai/audio-diffusion-pytorch; music samples for this paper: http://bit.ly/44ozWDH; all music samples for all models: https://bit.ly/audio-diffusion.

Andrei Paleyes, Siyuan Guo, Bernhard Schölkopf et al. · cambridge

Component-based development is one of the core principles behind modern software engineering practices. Understanding of causal relationships between components of a software system can yield significant benefits to developers. Yet modern software design approaches make it difficult to track and discover such relationships at system scale, which leads to growing intellectual debt. In this paper we consider an alternative approach to software design, flow-based programming (FBP), and draw the attention of the community to the connection between dataflow graphs produced by FBP and structural causal models. With expository examples we show how this connection can be leveraged to improve day-to-day tasks in software projects, including fault localisation, business analysis and experimentation.

Klaus-Rudolf Kladny, Julius von Kügelgen, Bernhard Schölkopf et al. · eth-zurich

Counterfactuals answer questions of what would have been observed under altered circumstances and can therefore offer valuable insights. Whereas the classical interventional interpretation of counterfactuals has been studied extensively, backtracking constitutes a less studied alternative where all causal laws are kept intact. In the present work, we introduce a practical method called deep backtracking counterfactuals (DeepBC) for computing backtracking counterfactuals in structural causal models that consist of deep generative components. We propose two distinct versions of our method--one utilizing Langevin Monte Carlo sampling and the other employing constrained optimization--to generate counterfactuals for high-dimensional data. As a special case, our formulation reduces to methods in the field of counterfactual explanations. Compared to these, our approach represents a causally compliant, versatile and modular alternative. We demonstrate these properties experimentally on a modified version of MNIST and CelebA.

Paul Rolland, Volkan Cevher, Matthäus Kleindessner et al.

This paper demonstrates how to recover causal graphs from the score of the data distribution in non-linear additive (Gaussian) noise models. Using score matching algorithms as a building block, we show how to design a new generation of scalable causal discovery methods. To showcase our approach, we also propose a new efficient method for approximating the score's Jacobian, enabling to recover the causal graph. Empirically, we find that the new algorithm, called SCORE, is competitive with state-of-the-art causal discovery methods while being significantly faster.

Dominik Zietlow, Michael Lohaus, Guha Balakrishnan et al.

Algorithmic fairness is frequently motivated in terms of a trade-off in which overall performance is decreased so as to improve performance on disadvantaged groups where the algorithm would otherwise be less accurate. Contrary to this, we find that applying existing fairness approaches to computer vision improve fairness by degrading the performance of classifiers across all groups (with increased degradation on the best performing groups). Extending the bias-variance decomposition for classification to fairness, we theoretically explain why the majority of fairness classifiers designed for low capacity models should not be used in settings involving high-capacity models, a scenario common to computer vision. We corroborate this analysis with extensive experimental support that shows that many of the fairness heuristics used in computer vision also degrade performance on the most disadvantaged groups. Building on these insights, we propose an adaptive augmentation strategy that, uniquely, of all methods tested, improves performance for the disadvantaged groups.

Simon Buchholz, Goutham Rajendran, Elan Rosenfeld et al.

We study the problem of learning causal representations from unknown, latent interventions in a general setting, where the latent distribution is Gaussian but the mixing function is completely general. We prove strong identifiability results given unknown single-node interventions, i.e., without having access to the intervention targets. This generalizes prior works which have focused on weaker classes, such as linear maps or paired counterfactual data. This is also the first instance of causal identifiability from non-paired interventions for deep neural network embeddings. Our proof relies on carefully uncovering the high-dimensional geometric structure present in the data distribution after a non-linear density transformation, which we capture by analyzing quadratic forms of precision matrices of the latent distributions. Finally, we propose a contrastive algorithm to identify the latent variables in practice and evaluate its performance on various tasks.

Maximilian Dax, Stephen R. Green, Jonathan Gair et al.

We combine amortized neural posterior estimation with importance sampling for fast and accurate gravitational-wave inference. We first generate a rapid proposal for the Bayesian posterior using neural networks, and then attach importance weights based on the underlying likelihood and prior. This provides (1) a corrected posterior free from network inaccuracies, (2) a performance diagnostic (the sample efficiency) for assessing the proposal and identifying failure cases, and (3) an unbiased estimate of the Bayesian evidence. By establishing this independent verification and correction mechanism we address some of the most frequent criticisms against deep learning for scientific inference. We carry out a large study analyzing 42 binary black hole mergers observed by LIGO and Virgo with the SEOBNRv4PHM and IMRPhenomXPHM waveform models. This shows a median sample efficiency of $\approx 10\%$ (two orders-of-magnitude better than standard samplers) as well as a ten-fold reduction in the statistical uncertainty in the log evidence. Given these advantages, we expect a significant impact on gravitational-wave inference, and for this approach to serve as a paradigm for harnessing deep learning methods in scientific applications.

Alessandro Stolfo, Zhijing Jin, Kumar Shridhar et al.

We have recently witnessed a number of impressive results on hard mathematical reasoning problems with language models. At the same time, the robustness of these models has also been called into question; recent works have shown that models can rely on shallow patterns in the problem description when generating a solution. Building on the idea of behavioral testing, we propose a novel framework, which pins down the causal effect of various factors in the input, e.g., the surface form of the problem text, the operands, and math operators on the output solution. By grounding the behavioral analysis in a causal graph describing an intuitive reasoning process, we study the behavior of language models in terms of robustness and sensitivity to direct interventions in the input space. We apply our framework on a test bed of math word problems. Our analysis shows that robustness does not appear to continuously improve as a function of size, but the GPT-3 Davinci models (175B) achieve a dramatic improvement in both robustness and sensitivity compared to all other GPT variants.

Gege Gao, Weiyang Liu, Anpei Chen et al.

As pretrained text-to-image diffusion models become increasingly powerful, recent efforts have been made to distill knowledge from these text-to-image pretrained models for optimizing a text-guided 3D model. Most of the existing methods generate a holistic 3D model from a plain text input. This can be problematic when the text describes a complex scene with multiple objects, because the vectorized text embeddings are inherently unable to capture a complex description with multiple entities and relationships. Holistic 3D modeling of the entire scene further prevents accurate grounding of text entities and concepts. To address this limitation, we propose GraphDreamer, a novel framework to generate compositional 3D scenes from scene graphs, where objects are represented as nodes and their interactions as edges. By exploiting node and edge information in scene graphs, our method makes better use of the pretrained text-to-image diffusion model and is able to fully disentangle different objects without image-level supervision. To facilitate modeling of object-wise relationships, we use signed distance fields as representation and impose a constraint to avoid inter-penetration of objects. To avoid manual scene graph creation, we design a text prompt for ChatGPT to generate scene graphs based on text inputs. We conduct both qualitative and quantitative experiments to validate the effectiveness of GraphDreamer in generating high-fidelity compositional 3D scenes with disentangled object entities.

Panagiotis Tigas, Yashas Annadani, Andrew Jesson et al.

Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments (interventions) based on the uncertainty arising from both factors can expedite the identification of the SCM. Existing methods in experimental design for causal discovery from limited data either rely on linear assumptions for the SCM or select only the intervention target. This work incorporates recent advances in Bayesian causal discovery into the Bayesian optimal experimental design framework, allowing for active causal discovery of large, nonlinear SCMs while selecting both the interventional target and the value. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on synthetic graphs (Erdos-Rènyi, Scale Free) for both linear and nonlinear SCMs as well as on the \emph{in-silico} single-cell gene regulatory network dataset, DREAM.

Zeju Qiu, Weiyang Liu, Haiwen Feng et al.

Against the backdrop of enthusiasm for large language models (LLMs), there is a growing need to scientifically assess their capabilities and shortcomings. This is nontrivial in part because it is difficult to find tasks which the models have not encountered during training. Utilizing symbolic graphics programs, we propose a domain well-suited to test multiple spatial-semantic reasoning skills of LLMs. Popular in computer graphics, these programs procedurally generate visual data. While LLMs exhibit impressive skills in general program synthesis and analysis, symbolic graphics programs offer a new layer of evaluation: they allow us to test an LLM's ability to answer semantic questions about the images or 3D geometries without a vision encoder. To semantically understand the symbolic programs, LLMs would need to possess the ability to "imagine" and reason how the corresponding graphics content would look with only the symbolic description of the local curvatures and strokes. We use this task to evaluate LLMs by creating a large benchmark for the semantic visual understanding of symbolic graphics programs, built procedurally with minimal human effort. Particular emphasis is placed on transformations of images that leave the image level semantics invariant while introducing significant changes to the underlying program. We evaluate commercial and open-source LLMs on our benchmark to assess their ability to reason about visual output of programs, finding that LLMs considered stronger at reasoning generally perform better. Lastly, we introduce a novel method to improve this ability -- Symbolic Instruction Tuning (SIT), in which the LLM is finetuned with pre-collected instruction data on symbolic graphics programs. Interestingly, we find that SIT not only improves LLM's understanding on symbolic programs, but it also improves general reasoning ability on various other benchmarks.

Alexander Immer, Christoph Schultheiss, Julia E. Vogt et al.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect $Y$ can be written as a function of the cause $X$ and a noise source $N$ independent of $X$, which may be scaled by a positive function $g$ over the cause, i.e., $Y = f(X) + g(X)N$. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Simon Buchholz, Michel Besserve, Bernhard Schölkopf

Unsupervised learning of latent variable models (LVMs) is widely used to represent data in machine learning. When such models reflect the ground truth factors and the mechanisms mapping them to observations, there is reason to expect that they allow generalization in downstream tasks. It is however well known that such identifiability guaranties are typically not achievable without putting constraints on the model class. This is notably the case for nonlinear Independent Component Analysis, in which the LVM maps statistically independent variables to observations via a deterministic nonlinear function. Several families of spurious solutions fitting perfectly the data, but that do not correspond to the ground truth factors can be constructed in generic settings. However, recent work suggests that constraining the function class of such models may promote identifiability. Specifically, function classes with constraints on their partial derivatives, gathered in the Jacobian matrix, have been proposed, such as orthogonal coordinate transformations (OCT), which impose orthogonality of the Jacobian columns. In the present work, we prove that a subclass of these transformations, conformal maps, is identifiable and provide novel theoretical results suggesting that OCTs have properties that prevent families of spurious solutions to spoil identifiability in a generic setting.

Maximilian Dax, Stephen R. Green, Jonathan Gair et al.

Mergers of binary neutron stars (BNSs) emit signals in both the gravitational-wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) spectra. Famously, the 2017 multi-messenger observation of GW170817 led to scientific discoveries across cosmology, nuclear physics, and gravity. Central to these results were the sky localization and distance obtained from GW data, which, in the case of GW170817, helped to identify the associated EM transient, AT 2017gfo, 11 hours after the GW signal. Fast analysis of GW data is critical for directing time-sensitive EM observations; however, due to challenges arising from the length and complexity of signals, it is often necessary to make approximations that sacrifice accuracy. Here, we present a machine learning framework that performs complete BNS inference in just one second without making any such approximations. Our approach enhances multi-messenger observations by providing (i) accurate localization even before the merger; (ii) improved localization precision by $\sim30\%$ compared to approximate low-latency methods; and (iii) detailed information on luminosity distance, inclination, and masses, which can be used to prioritize expensive telescope time. Additionally, the flexibility and reduced cost of our method open new opportunities for equation-of-state studies. Finally, we demonstrate that our method scales to extremely long signals, up to an hour in length, thus serving as a blueprint for data analysis for next-generation ground- and space-based detectors.

Marco Fumero, Florian Wenzel, Luca Zancato et al.

Recovering the latent factors of variation of high dimensional data has so far focused on simple synthetic settings. Mostly building on unsupervised and weakly-supervised objectives, prior work missed out on the positive implications for representation learning on real world data. In this work, we propose to leverage knowledge extracted from a diversified set of supervised tasks to learn a common disentangled representation. Assuming each supervised task only depends on an unknown subset of the factors of variation, we disentangle the feature space of a supervised multi-task model, with features activating sparsely across different tasks and information being shared as appropriate. Importantly, we never directly observe the factors of variations but establish that access to multiple tasks is sufficient for identifiability under sufficiency and minimality assumptions. We validate our approach on six real world distribution shift benchmarks, and different data modalities (images, text), demonstrating how disentangled representations can be transferred to real settings.

Klaus-Rudolf Kladny, Julius von Kügelgen, Bernhard Schölkopf et al. · eth-zurich

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can be improved by combining estimators arising from both the observational and interventional setting. To this end, we derive methods based on matrix weighted linear estimators and prove that our methods are asymptotically unbiased in the infinite sample limit. This is an important improvement compared to the pooled estimator using the union of interventional and observational data, for which the bias only vanishes if the ratio of observational to interventional data tends to zero. Studies on synthetic data confirm our theoretical findings. In settings where confounding is substantial and the ratio of observational to interventional data is large, our estimators outperform a Stein-type estimator and various other baselines.

Alexander Hägele, Jonas Rothfuss, Lars Lorch et al.

Inferring causal structures from experimentation is a central task in many domains. For example, in biology, recent advances allow us to obtain single-cell expression data under multiple interventions such as drugs or gene knockouts. However, the targets of the interventions are often uncertain or unknown and the number of observations limited. As a result, standard causal discovery methods can no longer be reliably used. To fill this gap, we propose a Bayesian framework (BaCaDI) for discovering and reasoning about the causal structure that underlies data generated under various unknown experimental or interventional conditions. BaCaDI is fully differentiable, which allows us to infer the complex joint posterior over the intervention targets and the causal structure via efficient gradient-based variational inference. In experiments on synthetic causal discovery tasks and simulated gene-expression data, BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.

Yuejiang Liu, Alexandre Alahi, Chris Russell et al.

Recent years have seen a surge of interest in learning high-level causal representations from low-level image pairs under interventions. Yet, existing efforts are largely limited to simple synthetic settings that are far away from real-world problems. In this paper, we present Causal Triplet, a causal representation learning benchmark featuring not only visually more complex scenes, but also two crucial desiderata commonly overlooked in previous works: (i) an actionable counterfactual setting, where only certain object-level variables allow for counterfactual observations whereas others do not; (ii) an interventional downstream task with an emphasis on out-of-distribution robustness from the independent causal mechanisms principle. Through extensive experiments, we find that models built with the knowledge of disentangled or object-centric representations significantly outperform their distributed counterparts. However, recent causal representation learning methods still struggle to identify such latent structures, indicating substantial challenges and opportunities for future work. Our code and datasets will be available at https://sites.google.com/view/causaltriplet.

Rishit Dagli, Abir Harrasse, Luke Zhang et al.

Training Data Attribution (TDA) seeks to trace a model's predictions back to its training data. The gold standard for TDA relies on causal interventions, observing how a model changes when data is added or removed, but repeated retraining is computationally challenging for Large Language Models (LLMs). Consequently, most approaches approximate this effect in the parameter space using gradients. However, tracking gradients across billions of parameters is not only prohibitively expensive but relies on local approximations. In this work, we propose a shift: rather than estimating parameter changes, we model the functional effect of training data in the activation space. We introduce STRIDE (Steering-based Training Data Influence Decomposition), a framework that formulates TDA as a sparse recovery problem in the spirit of compressive sensing. STRIDE learns lightweight "steering operators" that mimic the behavioral shift caused by training on data subsets. By measuring how these operators perturb test predictions, we recover individual training example influences via sparse linear decomposition. STRIDE achieves state-of-the-art for LLM pre-training attribution while being an order of magnitude ($13\times$) faster than previous art. We further validate its practical utility through downstream applications including data selection, data contamination, and qualitative analysis.

Jonas M. Kübler, Vincent Stimper, Simon Buchholz et al.

Two-sample tests are important in statistics and machine learning, both as tools for scientific discovery as well as to detect distribution shifts. This led to the development of many sophisticated test procedures going beyond the standard supervised learning frameworks, whose usage can require specialized knowledge about two-sample testing. We use a simple test that takes the mean discrepancy of a witness function as the test statistic and prove that minimizing a squared loss leads to a witness with optimal testing power. This allows us to leverage recent advancements in AutoML. Without any user input about the problems at hand, and using the same method for all our experiments, our AutoML two-sample test achieves competitive performance on a diverse distribution shift benchmark as well as on challenging two-sample testing problems. We provide an implementation of the AutoML two-sample test in the Python package autotst.

Ishan Kumar, Zhijing Jin, Ehsan Mokhtarian et al.

Citation count of a paper is a commonly used proxy for evaluating the significance of a paper in the scientific community. Yet citation measures are widely criticized for failing to accurately reflect the true impact of a paper. Thus, we propose CausalCite, a new way to measure the significance of a paper by assessing the causal impact of the paper on its follow-up papers. CausalCite is based on a novel causal inference method, TextMatch, which adapts the traditional matching framework to high-dimensional text embeddings. TextMatch encodes each paper using text embeddings from large language models (LLMs), extracts similar samples by cosine similarity, and synthesizes a counterfactual sample as the weighted average of similar papers according to their similarity values. We demonstrate the effectiveness of CausalCite on various criteria, such as high correlation with paper impact as reported by scientific experts on a previous dataset of 1K papers, (test-of-time) awards for past papers, and its stability across various subfields of AI. We also provide a set of findings that can serve as suggested ways for future researchers to use our metric for a better understanding of the quality of a paper. Our code is available at https://github.com/causalNLP/causal-cite.