Supriya Savalkar

Krishu K. Thapa, Bhupinderjeet Singh, Supriya Savalkar et al.

Snow Water-Equivalent (SWE) -- the amount of water available if snowpack is melted -- is a key decision variable used by water management agencies to make irrigation, flood control, power generation and drought management decisions. SWE values vary spatiotemporally -- affected by weather, topography and other environmental factors. While daily SWE can be measured by Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations with requisite instrumentation, such stations are spatially sparse requiring interpolation techniques to create spatiotemporally complete data. While recent efforts have explored machine learning (ML) for SWE prediction, a number of recent ML advances have yet to be considered. The main contribution of this paper is to explore one such ML advance, attention mechanisms, for SWE prediction. Our hypothesis is that attention has a unique ability to capture and exploit correlations that may exist across locations or the temporal spectrum (or both). We present a generic attention-based modeling framework for SWE prediction and adapt it to capture spatial attention and temporal attention. Our experimental results on 323 SNOTEL stations in the Western U.S. demonstrate that our attention-based models outperform other machine learning approaches. We also provide key results highlighting the differences between spatial and temporal attention in this context and a roadmap toward deployment for generating spatially-complete SWE maps.

Krishu K Thapa, Supriya Savalkar, Bhupinderjeet Singh et al.

Various complex water management decisions are made in snow-dominant watersheds with the knowledge of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) -- a key measure widely used to estimate the water content of a snowpack. However, forecasting SWE is challenging because SWE is influenced by various factors including topography and an array of environmental conditions, and has therefore been observed to be spatio-temporally variable. Classical approaches to SWE forecasting have not adequately utilized these spatial/temporal correlations, nor do they provide uncertainty estimates -- which can be of significant value to the decision maker. In this paper, we present ForeSWE, a new probabilistic spatio-temporal forecasting model that integrates deep learning and classical probabilistic techniques. The resulting model features a combination of an attention mechanism to integrate spatiotemporal features and interactions, alongside a Gaussian process module that provides principled quantification of prediction uncertainty. We evaluate the model on data from 512 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the Western US. The results show significant improvements in both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval compared to existing approaches. The results also serve to highlight the efficacy in uncertainty estimates between different approaches. Collectively, these findings have provided a platform for deployment and feedback by the water management community.