Lam Tung Ho

Esha Saha, Lam Si Tung Ho, Giang Tran

Predicting the evolution of diseases is challenging, especially when the data availability is scarce and incomplete. The most popular tools for modelling and predicting infectious disease epidemics are compartmental models. They stratify the population into compartments according to health status and model the dynamics of these compartments using dynamical systems. However, these predefined systems may not capture the true dynamics of the epidemic due to the complexity of the disease transmission and human interactions. In order to overcome this drawback, we propose Sparsity and Delay Embedding based Forecasting (SPADE4) for predicting epidemics. SPADE4 predicts the future trajectory of an observable variable without the knowledge of the other variables or the underlying system. We use random features model with sparse regression to handle the data scarcity issue and employ Takens' delay embedding theorem to capture the nature of the underlying system from the observed variable. We show that our approach outperforms compartmental models when applied to both simulated and real data.

Lam Si Tung Ho, Nicholas Richardson, Giang Tran

In this paper, we propose an adaptive group Lasso deep neural network for high-dimensional function approximation where input data are generated from a dynamical system and the target function depends on few active variables or few linear combinations of variables. We approximate the target function by a deep neural network and enforce an adaptive group Lasso constraint to the weights of a suitable hidden layer in order to represent the constraint on the target function. We utilize the proximal algorithm to optimize the penalized loss function. Using the non-negative property of the Bregman distance, we prove that the proposed optimization procedure achieves loss decay. Our empirical studies show that the proposed method outperforms recent state-of-the-art methods including the sparse dictionary matrix method, neural networks with or without group Lasso penalty.