Ali L. A. Al Jubouri

Khaled M. A. Alghtus, Aiyad Gannan, Khalid M. Alhajri et al.

This study presents a machine learning framework for forecasting short-term faults in industrial centrifugal pumps using real-time sensor data. The approach aims to predict {EarlyWarning} conditions 5, 15, and 30 minutes in advance based on patterns extracted from historical operation. Two lookback periods, 60 minutes and 120 minutes, were evaluated using a sliding window approach. For each window, statistical features including mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum, and linear trend were extracted, and class imbalance was addressed using the SMOTE algorithm. Random Forest and XGBoost classifiers were trained and tested on the labeled dataset. Results show that the Random Forest model achieved the best short-term forecasting performance with a 60-minute window, reaching recall scores of 69.2\% at 5 minutes, 64.9\% at 15 minutes, and 48.6\% at 30 minutes. With a 120-minute window, the Random Forest model achieved 57.6\% recall at 5 minutes, and improved predictive accuracy of 65.6\% at both 15 and 30 minutes. XGBoost displayed similar but slightly lower performance. These findings highlight that optimal history length depends on the prediction horizon, and that different fault patterns may evolve at different timescales. The proposed method offers an interpretable and scalable solution for integrating predictive maintenance into real-time industrial monitoring systems.

Khaled M. A. Alghtus, Ayad Gannan, Khalid M. Alhajri et al.

This study presents a practical approach for early fault detection in industrial pump systems using real-world sensor data from a large-scale vertical centrifugal pump operating in a demanding marine environment. Five key operational parameters were monitored: vibration, temperature, flow rate, pressure, and electrical current. A dual-threshold labeling method was applied, combining fixed engineering limits with adaptive thresholds calculated as the 95th percentile of historical sensor values. To address the rarity of documented failures, synthetic fault signals were injected into the data using domain-specific rules, simulating critical alerts within plausible operating ranges. Three machine learning classifiers - Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) - were trained to distinguish between normal operation, early warnings, and critical alerts. Results showed that Random Forest and XGBoost models achieved high accuracy across all classes, including minority cases representing rare or emerging faults, while the SVM model exhibited lower sensitivity to anomalies. Visual analyses, including grouped confusion matrices and time-series plots, indicated that the proposed hybrid method provides robust detection capabilities. The framework is scalable, interpretable, and suitable for real-time industrial deployment, supporting proactive maintenance decisions before failures occur. Furthermore, it can be adapted to other machinery with similar sensor architectures, highlighting its potential as a scalable solution for predictive maintenance in complex systems.