Martin Matzner

Sandra Zilker, Sven Weinzierl, Mathias Kraus et al.

Proactive analysis of patient pathways helps healthcare providers anticipate treatment-related risks, identify outcomes, and allocate resources. Machine learning (ML) can leverage a patient's complete health history to make informed decisions about future events. However, previous work has mostly relied on so-called black-box models, which are unintelligible to humans, making it difficult for clinicians to apply such models. Our work introduces PatWay-Net, an ML framework designed for interpretable predictions of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) for patients with symptoms of sepsis. We propose a novel type of recurrent neural network and combine it with multi-layer perceptrons to process the patient pathways and produce predictive yet interpretable results. We demonstrate its utility through a comprehensive dashboard that visualizes patient health trajectories, predictive outcomes, and associated risks. Our evaluation includes both predictive performance - where PatWay-Net outperforms standard models such as decision trees, random forests, and gradient-boosted decision trees - and clinical utility, validated through structured interviews with clinicians. By providing improved predictive accuracy along with interpretable and actionable insights, PatWay-Net serves as a valuable tool for healthcare decision support in the critical case of patients with symptoms of sepsis.

Martin Käppel, Julian Neuberger, Felix Möhrlein et al.

Predictive process monitoring enables organizations to proactively react and intervene in running instances of a business process. Given an incomplete process instance, predictions about the outcome, next activity, or remaining time are created. This is done by powerful machine learning models, which have shown impressive predictive performance. However, the data-driven nature of these models makes them susceptible to finding unfair, biased, or unethical patterns in the data. Such patterns lead to biased predictions based on so-called sensitive attributes, such as the gender or age of process participants. Previous work has identified this problem and offered solutions that mitigate biases by removing sensitive attributes entirely from the process instance. However, sensitive attributes can be used both fairly and unfairly in the same process instance. For example, during a medical process, treatment decisions could be based on gender, while the decision to accept a patient should not be based on gender. This paper proposes a novel, model-agnostic approach for identifying and rectifying biased decisions in predictive business process monitoring models, even when the same sensitive attribute is used both fairly and unfairly. The proposed approach uses a human-in-the-loop approach to differentiate between fair and unfair decisions through simple alterations on a decision tree model distilled from the original prediction model. Our results show that the proposed approach achieves a promising tradeoff between fairness and accuracy in the presence of biased data. All source code and data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15387576.

Felix Möhrlein, Martin Käppel, Julian Neuberger et al.

Sensitive attributes like gender or age can lead to unfair predictions in machine learning tasks such as predictive business process monitoring, particularly when used without considering context. We present FairLoop1, a tool for human-guided bias mitigation in neural network-based prediction models. FairLoop distills decision trees from neural networks, allowing users to inspect and modify unfair decision logic, which is then used to fine-tune the original model towards fairer predictions. Compared to other approaches to fairness, FairLoop enables context-aware bias removal through human involvement, addressing the influence of sensitive attributes selectively rather than excluding them uniformly.

Sven Weinzierl, Sandra Zilker, Annina Liessmann et al.

Event logs reflect the behavior of business processes that are mapped in organizational information systems. Predictive process monitoring (PPM) transforms these data into value by creating process-related predictions that provide the insights required for proactive interventions at process runtime. Existing PPM techniques require sufficient amounts of event data or other relevant resources that might not be readily available, which prevents some organizations from utilizing PPM. The transfer learning-based PPM technique presented in this paper allows organizations without suitable event data or other relevant resources to implement PPM for effective decision support. This technique is instantiated in both a real-life intra- and an inter-organizational use case, based on which numerical experiments are performed using event logs for IT service management processes. The results of the experiments suggest that knowledge of one business process can be transferred to a similar business process in the same or a different organization to enable effective PPM in the target context. The proposed technique allows organizations to benefit from transfer learning in intra- and inter-organizational settings by transferring resources such as pre-trained models within and across organizational boundaries.

Lars Ackermann, Martin Käppel, Laura Marcus et al.

The rapid development of cutting-edge technologies, the increasing volume of data and also the availability and processability of new types of data sources has led to a paradigm shift in data-based management and decision-making. Since business processes are at the core of organizational work, these developments heavily impact BPM as a crucial success factor for organizations. In view of this emerging potential, data-driven business process management has become a relevant and vibrant research area. Given the complexity and interdisciplinarity of the research field, this position paper therefore presents research insights regarding data-driven BPM.

An Nguyen, Srijeet Chatterjee, Sven Weinzierl et al.

Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) aims to predict future process behavior during ongoing process executions based on event log data. Especially, techniques for the next activity and timestamp prediction can help to improve the performance of operational business processes. Recently, many PBPM solutions based on deep learning were proposed by researchers. Due to the sequential nature of event log data, a common choice is to apply recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory (LSTM) cells. We argue, that the elapsed time between events is informative. However, current PBPM techniques mainly use 'vanilla' LSTM cells and hand-crafted time-related control flow features. To better model the time dependencies between events, we propose a new PBPM technique based on time-aware LSTM (T-LSTM) cells. T-LSTM cells incorporate the elapsed time between consecutive events inherently to adjust the cell memory. Furthermore, we introduce cost-sensitive learning to account for the common class imbalance in event logs. Our experiments on publicly available benchmark event logs indicate the effectiveness of the introduced techniques.

Sven Weinzierl, Sebastian Dunzer, Sandra Zilker et al.

Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) techniques predict future process behaviour based on historical event log data to improve operational business processes. Concerning the next activity prediction, recent PBPM techniques use state-of-the-art deep neural networks (DNNs) to learn predictive models for producing more accurate predictions in running process instances. Even though organisations measure process performance by key performance indicators (KPIs), the DNN`s learning procedure is not directly affected by them. Therefore, the resulting next most likely activity predictions can be less beneficial in practice. Prescriptive business process monitoring (PrBPM) approaches assess predictions regarding their impact on the process performance (typically measured by KPIs) to prevent undesired process activities by raising alarms or recommending actions. However, none of these approaches recommends actual process activities as actions that are optimised according to a given KPI. We present a PrBPM technique that transforms the next most likely activities into the next best actions regarding a given KPI. Thereby, our technique uses business process simulation to ensure the control-flow conformance of the recommended actions. Based on our evaluation with two real-life event logs, we show that our technique`s next best actions can outperform next activity predictions regarding the optimisation of a KPI and the distance from the actual process instances.

Sven Weinzierl, Sandra Zilker, Jens Brunk et al.

Predictive business process monitoring (PBPM) is a class of techniques designed to predict behaviour, such as next activities, in running traces. PBPM techniques aim to improve process performance by providing predictions to process analysts, supporting them in their decision making. However, the PBPM techniques` limited predictive quality was considered as the essential obstacle for establishing such techniques in practice. With the use of deep neural networks (DNNs), the techniques` predictive quality could be improved for tasks like the next activity prediction. While DNNs achieve a promising predictive quality, they still lack comprehensibility due to their hierarchical approach of learning representations. Nevertheless, process analysts need to comprehend the cause of a prediction to identify intervention mechanisms that might affect the decision making to secure process performance. In this paper, we propose XNAP, the first explainable, DNN-based PBPM technique for the next activity prediction. XNAP integrates a layer-wise relevance propagation method from the field of explainable artificial intelligence to make predictions of a long short-term memory DNN explainable by providing relevance values for activities. We show the benefit of our approach through two real-life event logs.

Matthias Stierle, Sven Weinzierl, Maximilian Harl et al.

Process models generated through process mining depict the as-is state of a process. Through annotations with metrics such as the frequency or duration of activities, these models provide generic information to the process analyst. To improve business processes with respect to performance measures, process analysts require further guidance from the process model. In this study, we design Graph Relevance Miner (GRM), a technique based on graph neural networks, to determine the relevance scores for process activities with respect to performance measures. Annotating process models with such relevance scores facilitates a problem-focused analysis of the business process, placing these problems at the centre of the analysis. We quantitatively evaluate the predictive quality of our technique using four datasets from different domains, to demonstrate the faithfulness of the relevance scores. Furthermore, we present the results of a case study, which highlight the utility of the technique for organisations. Our work has important implications both for research and business applications, because process model-based analyses feature shortcomings that need to be urgently addressed to realise successful process mining at an enterprise level.

Daniel Viner, Matthias Stierle, Martin Matzner

www.processmining-software.com is a dedicated website for process mining software comparison and was developed to give practitioners and researchers an overview of commercial tools available on the market. Based on literature review and experimental tool testing, a set of criteria was developed in order to assess the tools' functional capabilities in an objective manner. With our publicly accessible website, we intend to increase the transparency of tool functionality. Being an academic endeavour, the non-commercial nature of the study ensures a less biased assessment as compared with reports from analyst firms.

Sebastian Dunzer, Matthias Stierle, Martin Matzner et al.

Conformance checking is a set of process mining functions that compare process instances with a given process model. It identifies deviations between the process instances' actual behaviour ("as-is") and its modelled behaviour ("to-be"). Especially in the context of analyzing compliance in organizations, it is currently gaining momentum -- e.g. for auditors. Researchers have proposed a variety of conformance checking techniques that are geared towards certain process model notations or specific applications such as process model evaluation. This article reviews a set of conformance checking techniques described in 37 scholarly publications. It classifies the techniques along the dimensions "modelling language", "algorithm type", "quality metric", and "perspective" using a concept matrix so that the techniques can be better accessed by practitioners and researchers. The matrix highlights the dimensions where extant research concentrates and where blind spots exist. For instance, process miners use declarative process modelling languages often, but applications in conformance checking are rare. Likewise, process mining can investigate process roles or process metrics such as duration, but conformance checking techniques narrow on analyzing control-flow. Future research may construct techniques that support these neglected approaches to conformance checking.

Christian Wellmann, Matthias Stierle, Sebastian Dunzer et al.

Robotic process automation (RPA) is a technology for centralized automation of business processes. RPA automates user interaction with graphical user interfaces, whereby it promises efficiency gains and a reduction of human negligence during process execution. To harness these benefits, organizations face the challenge of classifying process activities as viable automation candidates for RPA. Therefore, this work aims to support practitioners in evaluating RPA automation candidates. We design a framework that consists of thirteen criteria grouped into five perspectives which offer different evaluation aspects. These criteria leverage a profound understanding of the process step. We demonstrate and evaluate the framework by applying it to a real-life data set.

Jens Brunk, Matthias Stierle, Leon Papke et al.

Predicting undesirable events during the execution of a business process instance provides the process participants with an opportunity to intervene and keep the process aligned with its goals. Few approaches for tackling this challenge consider a multi-perspective view, where the flow perspective of the process is combined with its surrounding context. Given the many sources of data in today's world, context can vary widely and have various meanings. This paper addresses the issue of context being cause or effect of the next event and its impact on next event prediction. We leverage previous work on probabilistic models to develop a Dynamic Bayesian Network technique. Probabilistic models are considered comprehensible and they allow the end-user and his or her understanding of the domain to be involved in the prediction. Our technique models context attributes that have either a cause or effect relationship towards the event. We evaluate our technique with two real-life data sets and benchmark it with other techniques from the field of predictive process monitoring. The results show that our solution achieves superior prediction results if context information is correctly introduced into the model.