Xinfan Lin

Joseph Moyalan, Ricardo de Castro, Shuang Feng et al.

The increasing penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) introduces new challenges for emergency evacuation planning due to limited driving range, long charging times, and constrained charging infrastructure, particularly under disaster induced disruptions. This paper proposes a novel optimization based evacuation framework for EVs using Equivalent Circuit Models (ECMs) to jointly address routing, charging, and congestion management. By leveraging electrical analogies, traffic flow is modeled as electrical current, travel time as resistance, and driving range as voltage, enabling the use of Kirchhoff laws to enforce flow balance and energy feasibility constraints. The proposed controllable ECM incorporates binary switches to regulate route selection and explicitly models charging delays and range replenishment at both Fixed Charging Stations (FCSs) and Mobile Charging Stations (MCSs). The resulting formulation leads to an integer programming problem that determines optimal evacuation routes, charging durations, and the placement and number of MCSs to minimize evacuation time. The framework is extended to multiple origin destination pairs using the principle of superposition and supports fairness aware performance metrics, including worst case, average, and variance based evacuation times. Simulation studies on large scale transportation networks in California demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves evacuation efficiency and robustness, particularly in scenarios with limited charging access, highlighting the critical role of MCSs in EV based emergency evacuations.

Hao Tu, Jackson Fogelquist, Iman Askari et al.

This paper studies system identification for nonlinear state-space models, a problem that arises across many fields yet remains challenging in practice. Focusing on maximum likelihood estimation, we employ Bayesian optimization (BayesOpt) to address this problem by leveraging its derivative-free global search capability enabled by surrogate modeling of the likelihood function. Despite these advantages, standard BayesOpt often suffers from slow convergence, high computational cost, and practical difficulty in attaining global optima under limited computational budgets, especially for high-dimensional nonlinear models with many unknown parameters. To overcome these limitations, we propose an accelerated BayesOpt framework that integrates BayesOpt with the Nelder--Mead method. Heuristics-based, the Nelder--Mead method provides fast local search, thereby assisting BayesOpt when the surrogate model lacks fidelity or when over-exploration occurs in broad parameter spaces. The proposed framework incorporates a principled strategy to coordinate the two methods, effectively combining their complementary strengths. The resulting hybrid approach significantly improves both convergence speed and computational efficiency while maintaining strong global search performance. In addition, we leverage an implicit particle filtering method to enable accurate and efficient likelihood evaluation. We validate the proposed framework on the identification of the BattX model for lithium-ion batteries, which features ten state dimensions, 18 unknown parameters, and strong nonlinearity. Both simulation and experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach as well as its advantages over alternative methods.

Simon Kuang, Xinfan Lin

We study the problem of propagating the mean and covariance of a general multivariate Gaussian distribution through a deep (residual) neural network using layer-by-layer moment matching. We close a longstanding gap by deriving exact moment matching for the probit, GeLU, ReLU (as a limit of GeLU), Heaviside (as a limit of probit), and sine activation functions; for both feedforward and generalized residual layers. On random networks, we find orders-of-magnitude improvements in the KL divergence error metric, up to a millionfold, over popular alternatives. On real data, we find competitive statistical calibration for inference under epistemic uncertainty in the input. On a variational Bayes network, we show that our method attains hundredfold improvements in KL divergence from Monte Carlo ground truth over a state-of-the-art deterministic inference method. We also give an a priori error bound and a preliminary analysis of stochastic feedforward neurons, which have recently attracted general interest.

Simon Kuang, Xinfan Lin

The Kalman filter and Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother are optimal for state estimation in linear dynamic systems. With nonlinear systems, the challenge consists in how to propagate uncertainty through the state transitions and output function. For the case of a neural network model, we enable accurate uncertainty propagation using a recent state-of-the-art analytic formula for computing the mean and covariance of a deep neural network with Gaussian input. We argue that cross entropy is a more appropriate performance metric than RMSE for evaluating the accuracy of filters and smoothers. We demonstrate the superiority of our method for state estimation on a stochastic Lorenz system and a Wiener system, and find that our method enables more optimal linear quadratic regulation when the state estimate is used for feedback.

Simon Kuang, Yuezhu Xu, S. Sivaranjani et al.

The global Lipschitz constant of a neural network governs both adversarial robustness and generalization. Conventional approaches to ``certified training" typically follow a train-then-verify paradigm: they train a network and then attempt to bound its Lipschitz constant. Because the efficient ``trivial bound" (the product of the layerwise Lipschitz constants) is exponentially loose for arbitrary networks, these approaches must rely on computationally expensive techniques such as semidefinite programming, mixed-integer programming, or branch-and-bound. We propose a different paradigm: rather than designing complex verifiers for arbitrary networks, we design networks to be verifiable by the fast trivial bound. We show that directly penalizing the trivial bound during training forces it to become tight, thereby effectively regularizing the true Lipschitz constant. To achieve this, we identify three structural obstructions to a tight trivial bound (dead neurons, bias terms, and ill-conditioned weights) and introduce architectural mitigations, including a novel notion of norm-saturating polyactivations and bias-free sinusoidal layers. Our approach avoids the runtime complexity of advanced verification while achieving strong results: we train robust networks on MNIST with Lipschitz bounds that are small (orders of magnitude lower than comparable works) and tight (within 10% of the ground truth). The experimental results validate the theoretical guarantees, support the proposed mechanisms, and extend empirically to diverse activations and non-Euclidean norms.

Simon Kuang, Xinfan Lin

All Lipschitz dynamics with the weak infinitesimal contraction (WIC) property can be expressed as a Lipschitz nonlinear system in proportional negative feedback -- this statement, a ``structure theorem,'' is true in the $p=1$ and $p=\infty$ norms. Equivalently, a Lipschitz vector field is WIC if and only if it can be written as a scalar decay plus a Lipschitz-bounded residual. We put this theorem to use using neural networks to approximate Lipschitz functions. This results in a map from unconstrained parameters to the set of WIC vector fields, enabling standard gradient-based training with no projections or penalty terms. Because the induced $1$- and $\infty$-norms of a matrix reduce to row or column sums, Lipschitz certification costs only $O(d^2)$ operations -- the same order as a forward pass and appreciably cheaper than eigenvalue or semidefinite methods for the $2$-norm. Numerical experiments on a planar flow-fitting task and a four-node opinion network demonstrate that the parameterization (re-)constructs contracting dynamics from trajectory data. In a discussion of the expressiveness of non-Euclidean contraction, we prove that the set of $2\times 2$ systems that contract in a weighted $1$- or $\infty$-norm is characterized by an eigenvalue cone, a strict subset of the Hurwitz region that quantifies the cost of moving away from the Euclidean norm.

Ayush Patnaik, Jackson Fogelquist, Adam B Zufall et al.

Lithium plating during fast charging is a critical degradation mechanism that accelerates capacity fade and can trigger catastrophic safety failures. Recent work has identified a distinctive dQ/dV peak above 4.0 V as a reliable signature of plating onset; however, conventional methods for computing dQ/dV rely on finite differencing with filtering, which amplifies sensor noise and introduces bias in peak location. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian Process (GP) framework for lithium plating detection by directly modeling the charge-voltage relationship Q(V) as a stochastic process with calibrated uncertainty. Leveraging the property that derivatives of GPs remain GPs, we infer dQ/dV analytically and probabilistically from the posterior, enabling robust detection without ad hoc smoothing. The framework provides three key benefits: (i) noise-aware inference with hyperparameters learned from data, (ii) closed-form derivatives with credible intervals for uncertainty quantification, and (iii) scalability to online variants suitable for embedded BMS. Experimental validation on Li-ion coin cells across a range of C-rates (0.2C-1C) and temperatures (0-40°C) demonstrates that the GP-based method reliably detects plating peaks under low-temperature, high-rate charging, while correctly reporting no peaks in baseline cases. The concurrence of GP-identified differential peaks, reduced charge throughput, and capacity fade measured via reference performance tests confirms the method's accuracy and robustness, establishing a practical pathway for real-time lithium plating detection.