Di Yao

Zezhi Shao, Fei Wang, Yongjun Xu et al.

Multivariate Time Series (MTS) analysis is crucial to understanding and managing complex systems, such as traffic and energy systems, and a variety of approaches to MTS forecasting have been proposed recently. However, we often observe inconsistent or seemingly contradictory performance findings across different studies. This hinders our understanding of the merits of different approaches and slows down progress. We address the need for means of assessing MTS forecasting proposals reliably and fairly, in turn enabling better exploitation of MTS as seen in different applications. Specifically, we first propose BasicTS+, a benchmark designed to enable fair, comprehensive, and reproducible comparison of MTS forecasting solutions. BasicTS+ establishes a unified training pipeline and reasonable settings, enabling an unbiased evaluation. Second, we identify the heterogeneity across different MTS as an important consideration and enable classification of MTS based on their temporal and spatial characteristics. Disregarding this heterogeneity is a prime reason for difficulties in selecting the most promising technical directions. Third, we apply BasicTS+ along with rich datasets to assess the capabilities of more than 45 MTS forecasting solutions. This provides readers with an overall picture of the cutting-edge research on MTS forecasting. The code can be accessed at https://github.com/GestaltCogTeam/BasicTS.

Chang Gong, Di Yao, Chuzhe Zhang et al.

Temporal data, representing chronological observations of complex systems, has always been a typical data structure that can be widely generated by many domains, such as industry, medicine and finance. Analyzing this type of data is extremely valuable for various applications. Thus, different temporal data analysis tasks, eg, classification, clustering and prediction, have been proposed in the past decades. Among them, causal discovery, learning the causal relations from temporal data, is considered an interesting yet critical task and has attracted much research attention. Existing causal discovery works can be divided into two highly correlated categories according to whether the temporal data is calibrated, ie, multivariate time series causal discovery, and event sequence causal discovery. However, most previous surveys are only focused on the time series causal discovery and ignore the second category. In this paper, we specify the correlation between the two categories and provide a systematical overview of existing solutions. Furthermore, we provide public datasets, evaluation metrics and new perspectives for temporal data causal discovery.

Chang Gong, Di Yao, Jin Wang et al.

Root Cause Analysis (RCA) aims at identifying the underlying causes of system faults by uncovering and analyzing the causal structure from complex systems. It has been widely used in many application domains. Reliable diagnostic conclusions are of great importance in mitigating system failures and financial losses. However, previous studies implicitly assume a full observation of the system, which neglect the effect of partial observation (i.e., missing nodes and latent malfunction). As a result, they fail in deriving reliable RCA results. In this paper, we unveil the issues of unobserved confounders and heterogeneity in partial observation and come up with a new problem of root cause analysis with partially observed data. To achieve this, we propose PORCA, a novel RCA framework which can explore reliable root causes under both unobserved confounders and unobserved heterogeneity. PORCA leverages magnified score-based causal discovery to efficiently optimize acyclic directed mixed graph under unobserved confounders. In addition, we also develop a heterogeneity-aware scheduling strategy to provide adaptive sample weights. Extensive experimental results on one synthetic and two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Qingxiang Liu, Chenghao Liu, Sheng Sun et al.

Unsupervised anomaly detection of multivariate time series is a challenging task, given the requirements of deriving a compact detection criterion without accessing the anomaly points. The existing methods are mainly based on reconstruction error or association divergence, which are both confined to isolated subsequences with limited horizons, hardly promising unified series-level criterion. In this paper, we propose the Global Dictionary-enhanced Transformer (GDformer) with a renovated dictionary-based cross attention mechanism to cultivate the global representations shared by all normal points in the entire series. Accordingly, the cross-attention maps reflect the correlation weights between the point and global representations, which naturally leads to the representation-wise similarity-based detection criterion. To foster more compact detection boundary, prototypes are introduced to capture the distribution of normal point-global correlation weights. GDformer consistently achieves state-of-the-art unsupervised anomaly detection performance on five real-world benchmark datasets. Further experiments validate the global dictionary has great transferability among various datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/yuppielqx/GDformer.

Wenbin Li, Di Yao, Ruibo Zhao et al.

The rapid evolution of large language models (LLMs) holds promise for reforming the methodology of spatio-temporal data mining. However, current works for evaluating the spatio-temporal understanding capability of LLMs are somewhat limited and biased. These works either fail to incorporate the latest language models or only focus on assessing the memorized spatio-temporal knowledge. To address this gap, this paper dissects LLMs' capability of spatio-temporal data into four distinct dimensions: knowledge comprehension, spatio-temporal reasoning, accurate computation, and downstream applications. We curate several natural language question-answer tasks for each category and build the benchmark dataset, namely STBench, containing 13 distinct tasks and over 60,000 QA pairs. Moreover, we have assessed the capabilities of 13 LLMs, such as GPT-4o, Gemma and Mistral. Experimental results reveal that existing LLMs show remarkable performance on knowledge comprehension and spatio-temporal reasoning tasks, with potential for further enhancement on other tasks through in-context learning, chain-of-though prompting, and fine-tuning. The code and datasets of STBench are released on https://github.com/LwbXc/STBench.

Wenbin Li, Di Yao, Chang Gong et al.

Trajectory anomaly detection, aiming to estimate the anomaly risk of trajectories given the Source-Destination (SD) pairs, has become a critical problem for many real-world applications. Existing solutions directly train a generative model for observed trajectories and calculate the conditional generative probability $P({T}|{C})$ as the anomaly risk, where ${T}$ and ${C}$ represent the trajectory and SD pair respectively. However, we argue that the observed trajectories are confounded by road network preference which is a common cause of both SD distribution and trajectories. Existing methods ignore this issue limiting their generalization ability on out-of-distribution trajectories. In this paper, we define the debiased trajectory anomaly detection problem and propose a causal implicit generative model, namely CausalTAD, to solve it. CausalTAD adopts do-calculus to eliminate the confounding bias of road network preference and estimates $P({T}|do({C}))$ as the anomaly criterion. Extensive experiments show that CausalTAD can not only achieve superior performance on trained trajectories but also generally improve the performance of out-of-distribution data, with improvements of $2.1\% \sim 5.7\%$ and $10.6\% \sim 32.7\%$ respectively.

Shuo Liu, Di Yao, Lanting Fang et al.

Detecting anomaly edges for dynamic graphs aims to identify edges significantly deviating from the normal pattern and can be applied in various domains, such as cybersecurity, financial transactions and AIOps. With the evolving of time, the types of anomaly edges are emerging and the labeled anomaly samples are few for each type. Current methods are either designed to detect randomly inserted edges or require sufficient labeled data for model training, which harms their applicability for real-world applications. In this paper, we study this problem by cooperating with the rich knowledge encoded in large language models(LLMs) and propose a method, namely AnomalyLLM. To align the dynamic graph with LLMs, AnomalyLLM pre-trains a dynamic-aware encoder to generate the representations of edges and reprograms the edges using the prototypes of word embeddings. Along with the encoder, we design an in-context learning framework that integrates the information of a few labeled samples to achieve few-shot anomaly detection. Experiments on four datasets reveal that AnomalyLLM can not only significantly improve the performance of few-shot anomaly detection, but also achieve superior results on new anomalies without any update of model parameters.

Shuo Liu, Di Yao, Yan Lin et al.

Building a general model capable of analyzing human trajectories across different geographic regions and different tasks becomes an emergent yet important problem for various applications. However, existing works suffer from the generalization problem, \ie, they are either restricted to train for specific regions or only suitable for a few tasks. Given the recent advances of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), we raise the question: can MLLMs reform current trajectory data mining and solve the problem? Nevertheless, due to the modality gap of trajectory, how to generate task-independent multimodal trajectory representations and how to adapt flexibly to different tasks remain the foundational challenges. In this paper, we propose \texttt{Traj-MLLM}}, which is the first general framework using MLLMs for trajectory data mining. By integrating multiview contexts, \texttt{Traj-MLLM}} transforms raw trajectories into interleaved image-text sequences while preserving key spatial-temporal characteristics, and directly utilizes the reasoning ability of MLLMs for trajectory analysis. Additionally, a prompt optimization method is proposed to finalize data-invariant prompts for task adaptation. Extensive experiments on four publicly available datasets show that \texttt{Traj-MLLM}} outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by $48.05\%$, $15.52\%$, $51.52\%$, $1.83\%$ on travel time estimation, mobility prediction, anomaly detection and transportation mode identification, respectively. \texttt{Traj-MLLM}} achieves these superior performances without requiring any training data or fine-tuning the MLLM backbones.

Wenjie Chen, Wenbin Li, Di Yao et al.

Tool planning with large language models (LLMs), referring to selecting, organizing, and preparing the tools necessary to complete a user request, bridges the gap between natural language understanding and task execution. However, current works treat different tools as isolated components and fail to leverage the inherent dependencies of tools, leading to invalid planning results. Since tool dependencies are often incomplete, it becomes challenging for LLMs to accurately identify the appropriate tools required by a user request, especially when confronted with a large toolset. To solve this challenge, we propose \texttt{GTool}, which is the first work aiming to enhance the tool planning ability of LLMs under incomplete dependencies. \texttt{GTool} constructs a request-specific tool graph to select tools efficiently and generate the \texttt{<graph token>} which provides sufficient dependency information understandable by LLMs. Moreover, a missing dependency prediction task is designed to improve the reliability of \texttt{GTool} with incomplete dependencies. Without trimming LLMs, \texttt{GTool} can be seamlessly integrated with various LLM backbones without extensive retraining. Extensive experiments show that \texttt{GTool} achieves more than 29.6\% performance improvements compared with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) baselines with a light-weight (7B) LLM backbone.

Shuo Liu, Wenbin Li, Di Yao et al.

Flight trajectory data plays a vital role in the traffic management community, especially for downstream tasks such as trajectory prediction, flight recognition, and anomaly detection. Existing works often utilize handcrafted features and design models for different tasks individually, which heavily rely on domain expertise and are hard to extend. We argue that different flight analysis tasks share the same useful features of the trajectory. Jointly learning a unified representation for flight trajectories could be beneficial for improving the performance of various tasks. However, flight trajectory representation learning (TRL) faces two primary challenges, \ie unbalanced behavior density and 3D spatial continuity, which disable recent general TRL methods. In this paper, we propose Flight2Vec , a flight-specific representation learning method to address these challenges. Specifically, a behavior-adaptive patching mechanism is used to inspire the learned representation to pay more attention to behavior-dense segments. Moreover, we introduce a motion trend learning technique that guides the model to memorize not only the precise locations, but also the motion trend to generate better representations. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Flight2Vec significantly improves performance in downstream tasks such as flight trajectory prediction, flight recognition, and anomaly detection.

Chang Gong, Di Yao, Lei Zhang et al.

In online advertising, marketing mix modeling (MMM) is employed to predict the gross merchandise volume (GMV) of brand shops and help decision-makers to adjust the budget allocation of various advertising channels. Traditional MMM methods leveraging regression techniques can fail in handling the complexity of marketing. Although some efforts try to encode the causal structures for better prediction, they have the strict restriction that causal structures are prior-known and unchangeable. In this paper, we define a new causal MMM problem that automatically discovers the interpretable causal structures from data and yields better GMV predictions. To achieve causal MMM, two essential challenges should be addressed: (1) Causal Heterogeneity. The causal structures of different kinds of shops vary a lot. (2) Marketing Response Patterns. Various marketing response patterns i.e., carryover effect and shape effect, have been validated in practice. We argue that causal MMM needs dynamically discover specific causal structures for different shops and the predictions should comply with the prior known marketing response patterns. Thus, we propose CausalMMM that integrates Granger causality in a variational inference framework to measure the causal relationships between different channels and predict the GMV with the regularization of both temporal and saturation marketing response patterns. Extensive experiments show that CausalMMM can not only achieve superior performance of causal structure learning on synthetic datasets with improvements of 5.7%\sim 7.1%, but also enhance the GMV prediction results on a representative E-commerce platform.

Chongjian Yue, Lun Du, Qiang Fu et al.

With the development of temporal networks such as E-commerce networks and social networks, the issue of temporal link prediction has attracted increasing attention in recent years. The Temporal Link Prediction task of WSDM Cup 2022 expects a single model that can work well on two kinds of temporal graphs simultaneously, which have quite different characteristics and data properties, to predict whether a link of a given type will occur between two given nodes within a given time span. Our team, named as nothing here, regards this task as a link prediction task in heterogeneous temporal networks and proposes a generic model, i.e., Heterogeneous Temporal Graph Network (HTGN), to solve such temporal link prediction task with the unfixed time intervals and the diverse link types. That is, HTGN can adapt to the heterogeneity of links and the prediction with unfixed time intervals within an arbitrary given time period. To train the model, we design a Bi-Time-Window training strategy (BTW) which has two kinds of mini-batches from two kinds of time windows. As a result, for the final test, we achieved an AUC of 0.662482 on dataset A, an AUC of 0.906923 on dataset B, and won 2nd place with an Average T-scores of 0.628942.

Di Yao, Chang Gong, Lei Zhang et al.

Multi-touch attribution (MTA), aiming to estimate the contribution of each advertisement touchpoint in conversion journeys, is essential for budget allocation and automatically advertising. Existing methods first train a model to predict the conversion probability of the advertisement journeys with historical data and calculate the attribution of each touchpoint using counterfactual predictions. An assumption of these works is the conversion prediction model is unbiased, i.e., it can give accurate predictions on any randomly assigned journey, including both the factual and counterfactual ones. Nevertheless, this assumption does not always hold as the exposed advertisements are recommended according to user preferences. This confounding bias of users would lead to an out-of-distribution (OOD) problem in the counterfactual prediction and cause concept drift in attribution. In this paper, we define the causal MTA task and propose CausalMTA to eliminate the influence of user preferences. It systemically eliminates the confounding bias from both static and dynamic preferences to learn the conversion prediction model using historical data. We also provide a theoretical analysis to prove CausalMTA can learn an unbiased prediction model with sufficient data. Extensive experiments on both public datasets and the impression data in an e-commerce company show that CausalMTA not only achieves better prediction performance than the state-of-the-art method but also generates meaningful attribution credits across different advertising channels.