Kentaro Baba

Masahiro Kato, Kentaro Baba, Hibiki Kaibuchi et al.

Portfolio optimization is a critical task in investment. Most existing portfolio optimization methods require information on the distribution of returns of the assets that make up the portfolio. However, such distribution information is usually unknown to investors. Various methods have been proposed to estimate distribution information, but their accuracy greatly depends on the uncertainty of the financial markets. Due to this uncertainty, a model that could well predict the distribution information at one point in time may perform less accurately compared to another model at a different time. To solve this problem, we investigate a method for portfolio optimization based on Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS), one of the Bayesian ensemble methods for meta-learning. We assume that investors have access to multiple asset return prediction models. By using BPS with dynamic linear models to combine these predictions, we can obtain a Bayesian predictive posterior about the mean rewards of assets that accommodate the uncertainty of the financial markets. In this study, we examine how to construct mean-variance portfolios and quantile-based portfolios based on the predicted distribution information.

Masahiro Kato, Kei Nakagawa, Kenshi Abe et al.

This study investigates the mean-variance (MV) trade-off in reinforcement learning (RL), an instance of the sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Our objective is to obtain MV-efficient policies whose means and variances are located on the Pareto efficient frontier with respect to the MV trade-off; under the condition, any increase in the expected reward would necessitate a corresponding increase in variance, and vice versa. To this end, we propose a method that trains our policy to maximize the expected quadratic utility, defined as a weighted sum of the first and second moments of the rewards obtained through our policy. We subsequently demonstrate that the maximizer indeed qualifies as an MV-efficient policy. Previous studies that employed constrained optimization to address the MV trade-off have encountered computational challenges. However, our approach is more computationally efficient as it eliminates the need for gradient estimation of variance, a contributing factor to the double sampling issue observed in existing methodologies. Through experimentation, we validate the efficacy of our approach.