85.5CEMay 16Code
The Alpha Illusion: Reported Alpha from LLM Trading Agents Should Not Be Treated as Deployment EvidenceYuxuan Ye, Jun Han, Ao Hu et al.
End-to-end LLM trading agents have moved quickly from research curiosity to a small ecosystem of named systems, including FinCon, FinMem, TradingAgents, FinAgent, QuantAgent, and FLAG-Trader. Several of these report headline Sharpe ratios that would be material if read at face value on a deployment desk, and associated benchmarks such as FinBen report trading-task Sharpe statistics in the same range. The gap between architecture research and deployment claim has been crossed too freely on both sides of the academia--industry divide. We take a position on that gap: reported alpha from end-to-end LLM trading agents should not be treated as deployment evidence. Before such returns can support claims of deployable trading capability, they must survive structural validity tests for temporal integrity, real-world frictions, counterfactual robustness, predictive calibration, numerical execution, and multi-agent disaggregation. Current public evidence cannot yet distinguish robust predictive ability from temporal contamination, unmodeled frictions, short-window Sharpe uncertainty, narrative fitting, and parametric priors. The problem is not only evaluative but structural. Language confidence is not tradable probability, narrative reasoning is not numerical execution, and model priors may become undisclosed implicit factor exposures. We contribute a minimum reporting protocol suite, P1--P6, with tiered applicability by claim strength, and a conservative modular alternative that uses LLMs as auditable information interfaces upstream of independent calibration, risk, and execution modules. Code and reproduction harness: \url{https://github.com/hj1650782738/Trading}.
CLDec 17, 2025
CTkvr: KV Cache Retrieval for Long-Context LLMs via Centroid then Token IndexingKuan Lu, Shuhang Lin, Sai Wu et al.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied in long-context scenarios such as multi-turn conversations. However, long contexts pose significant challenges for inference efficiency, including high memory overhead from Key-Value (KV) cache and increased latency due to excessive memory accesses. Recent methods for dynamic KV selection struggle with trade-offs: block-level indexing degrades accuracy by retrieving irrelevant KV entries, while token-level indexing incurs high latency from inefficient retrieval mechanisms. In this paper, we propose CTKVR, a novel centroid-then-token KV retrieval scheme that addresses these limitations. CTKVR leverages a key observation: query vectors adjacent in position exhibit high similarity after Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) and share most of their top-k KV cache entries. Based on this insight, CTKVR employs a two-stage retrieval strategy: lightweight centroids are precomputed during prefilling for centroid-grained indexing, followed by token-level refinement for precise KV retrieval. This approach balances retrieval efficiency and accuracy. To further enhance performance, we implement an optimized system for indexing construction and search using CPU-GPU co-execution. Experimentally, CTKVR achieves superior performance across multiple benchmarks with less than 1% accuracy degradation. Meanwhile, CTKVR delivers 3 times and 4 times throughput speedups on Llama-3-8B and Yi-9B at 96K context length across diverse GPU hardware.
90.4LGMar 9
DARC: Disagreement-Aware Alignment via Risk-Constrained DecodingMingxi Zou, Jiaxiang Chen, Junfan Li et al.
Preference-based alignment methods (e.g., RLHF, DPO) typically optimize a single scalar objective, implicitly averaging over heterogeneous human preferences. In practice, systematic annotator and user-group disagreement makes mean-reward maximization brittle and susceptible to proxy over-optimization. We propose **Disagreement-Aware Alignment via Risk-Constrained Decoding (DARC)**, a retraining-free inference-time method that frames response selection as distributionally robust, risk-sensitive decision making. Given multiple preference samples or scalable disagreement proxies, DARC reranks candidates by maximizing a *KL-robust (entropic)* satisfaction objective, and provides simple deployment controls that cap or penalize the corresponding entropic risk premium relative to the mean, enabling explicit risk budgets without retraining. We provide theoretical characterization linking this decoding rule to principled pessimism and KL-based distributionally robust optimization. Experiments on alignment benchmarks show that DARC reduces disagreement and tail risk while maintaining competitive average quality under noisy, heterogeneous feedback.