Septian Caesar Floresko

Malikussaid, Septian Caesar Floresko, Ade Romadhony et al.

Lipophilicity (logP) prediction remains central to drug discovery, yet linear regression models for this task frequently violate statistical assumptions in ways that invalidate their reported performance metrics. We analyzed 426,850 bioactive molecules from a rigorously curated intersection of PubChem, ChEMBL, and eMolecules databases, revealing severe heteroskedasticity in linear models predicting computed logP values (XLOGP3): residual variance increases 4.2-fold in lipophilic regions (logP greater than 5) compared to balanced regions (logP 2 to 4). Classical remediation strategies (Weighted Least Squares and Box-Cox transformation) failed to resolve this violation (Breusch-Pagan p-value less than 0.0001 for all variants). Tree-based ensemble methods (Random Forest R-squared of 0.764, XGBoost R-squared of 0.765) proved inherently robust to heteroskedasticity while delivering superior predictive performance. SHAP analysis resolved a critical multicollinearity paradox: despite a weak bivariate correlation of 0.146, molecular weight emerged as the single most important predictor (mean absolute SHAP value of 0.573), with its effect suppressed in simple correlations by confounding with topological polar surface area (TPSA). These findings demonstrate that standard linear models face fundamental challenges for computed lipophilicity prediction and provide a principled framework for interpreting ensemble models in QSAR applications.

Malikussaid, Septian Caesar Floresko, Sutiyo

The integration of large-scale chemical databases represents a critical bottleneck in modern cheminformatics research, particularly for machine learning applications requiring high-quality, multi-source validated datasets. This paper presents a case study of integrating three major public chemical repositories: PubChem (176 million compounds), ChEMBL, and eMolecules, to construct a curated dataset for molecular property prediction. We investigate whether byte-offset indexing can practically overcome brute-force scalability limits while preserving data integrity at hundred-million scale. Our results document the progression from an intractable brute-force search algorithm with projected 100-day runtime to a byte-offset indexing architecture achieving 3.2-hour completion-a 740-fold performance improvement through algorithmic complexity reduction from O(NxM) to O(N+M). Systematic validation of 176 million database entries revealed hash collisions in InChIKey molecular identifiers, necessitating pipeline reconstruction using collision-free full InChI strings. We present performance benchmarks, quantify trade-offs between storage overhead and scientific rigor, and compare our approach with alternative large-scale integration strategies. The resulting system successfully extracted 435,413 validated compounds and demonstrates generalizable principles for large-scale scientific data integration where uniqueness constraints exceed hash-based identifier capabilities.