Ziyuan Gu

Meead Saberi, Mudabber Ashfaq, Homayoun Hamedmoghadam et al.

The spread of traffic jams in urban networks has long been viewed as a complex spatio-temporal phenomenon that often requires computationally intensive microscopic models for analysis purposes. In this study, we present a framework to describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation of traffic in cities using a simple contagion process, inspired by those used to model infectious disease spread in a population. We introduce two novel macroscopic characteristics of network traffic, namely congestion propagation rate \b{eta} and congestion dissipation rate μ. We describe the dynamics of congestion propagation and dissipation using these new parameters, \b{eta}, and μ, embedded within a system of ordinary differential equations, analogous to the well-known Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. The proposed contagion-based dynamics are verified through an empirical multi-city analysis, and can be used to monitor, predict and control the fraction of congested links in the network over time.

Ziyuan Gu, Meead Saberi

In this paper, we characterize the effects of turning and merging maneuvers of connected and/or automated vehicles (CAVs or AVs) on network traffic instability using the macroscopic or network fundamental diagram (MFD or NFD). We revisit the two-ring system from a theoretical perspective and develop an integrated modeling framework consisting of different microscopic traffic models of human-driven vehicles (HVs), AVs, and CAVs. Results suggest that network traffic instability due to turning and merging maneuvers is an intrinsic property of road networks. When the turning probability is low, CAVs do not significantly change the NFD bifurcation, but scatter in both the simulated link fundamental diagrams (FDs) and NFDs reduces leading to higher and more stable network flows. When the turning probability is high, non-cooperative AVs worsen network traffic instability - the NFD undergoes bifurcation long before the critical density is reached. Results highlight the important impact of cooperative merging on network traffic stability when AVs are widely deployed in road networks.

Zhen Zhou, Zhirui Wang, Qi Hong et al.

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

Ziyuan Gu, S. Travis Waller, Meead Saberi

Toll optimization in a large-scale dynamic traffic network is typically characterized by an expensive-to-evaluate objective function. In this paper, we propose two toll level problems (TLPs) integrated with a large-scale simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model of Melbourne, Australia. The first TLP aims to control the pricing zone (PZ) through a time-varying joint distance and delay toll (JDDT) such that the network fundamental diagram (NFD) of the PZ does not enter the congested regime. The second TLP is built upon the first TLP by further considering the minimization of the heterogeneity of congestion distribution in the PZ. To solve the two TLPs, a computationally efficient surrogate-based optimization method, i.e., regressing kriging (RK) with expected improvement (EI) sampling, is applied to approximate the simulation input-output mapping, which can balance well between local exploitation and global exploration. Results show that the two optimal TLP solutions reduce the average travel time in the PZ (entire network) by 29.5% (1.4%) and 21.6% (2.5%), respectively. Reducing the heterogeneity of congestion distribution achieves higher network flows in the PZ and a lower average travel time or a larger total travel time saving in the entire network.

Ziyuan Gu, Sajjad Shafiei, Zhiyuan Liu et al.

Given the efficiency and equity concerns of a cordon toll, this paper proposes a few alternative distance-dependent area-based pricing models for a large-scale dynamic traffic network. We use the Network Fundamental Diagram (NFD) to monitor the network traffic state over time and consider different trip lengths in the toll calculation. The first model is a distance toll that is linearly related to the distance traveled within the cordon. The second model is an improved joint distance and time toll (JDTT) whereby users are charged jointly in proportion to the distance traveled and time spent within the cordon. The third model is a further improved joint distance and delay toll (JDDT) which replaces the time toll in the JDTT with a delay toll component. To solve the optimal toll level problem, we develop a simulation-based optimization (SBO) framework. Specifically, we propose a simultaneous approach and a sequential approach, respectively, based on the proportional-integral (PI) feedback controller to iteratively adjust the JDTT and JDDT, and use a calibrated large-scale simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) model of Melbourne, Australia to evaluate the network performance under different pricing scenarios. While the framework is developed for static pricing, we show that it can be easily extended to solve time-dependent pricing by using multiple PI controllers. Results show that although the distance toll keeps the network from entering the congested regime of the NFD, it naturally drives users into the shortest paths within the cordon resulting in an uneven distribution of congestion. This is reflected by a large clockwise hysteresis loop in the NFD. In contrast, both the JDTT and JDDT reduce the size of the hysteresis loop while achieving the same control objective.