Chaoxia Yuan

Yuchen Ye, Chaoxia Yuan, Mingyu Li et al.

Accurate atmospheric wind field information is crucial for various applications, including weather forecasting, aviation safety, and disaster risk reduction. However, obtaining high spatiotemporal resolution wind data remains challenging due to limitations in traditional in-situ observations and remote sensing techniques, as well as the computational expense and biases of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper introduces G-WindCast, a novel deep learning framework that leverages signal strength variations from 5G Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals to forecast three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric wind fields. The framework utilizes Forward Neural Networks (FNN) and Transformer networks to capture complex, nonlinear, and spatiotemporal relationships between GNSS-derived features and wind dynamics. Our preliminary results demonstrate promising accuracy in real-time wind forecasts (up to 30 minutes lead time). The model exhibits robustness across forecast horizons and different pressure levels, and its predictions for wind fields show superior agreement with ground-based radar wind profiler compared to concurrent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Furthermore, we show that the system can maintain excellent performance for localized forecasting even with a significantly reduced number of GNSS stations (e.g., around 100), highlighting its cost-effectiveness and scalability. This interdisciplinary approach underscores the transformative potential of exploiting non-traditional data sources and deep learning for advanced environmental monitoring and real-time atmospheric applications.

Chaoxia Yuan, Chao Ying, Zhou Yu et al.

Support vector machine (SVM) is a powerful classification method that has achieved great success in many fields. Since its performance can be seriously impaired by redundant covariates, model selection techniques are widely used for SVM with high dimensional covariates. As an alternative to model selection, significant progress has been made in the area of model averaging in the past decades. Yet no frequentist model averaging method was considered for SVM. This work aims to fill the gap and to propose a frequentist model averaging procedure for SVM which selects the optimal weight by cross validation. Even when the number of covariates diverges at an exponential rate of the sample size, we show asymptotic optimality of the proposed method in the sense that the ratio of its hinge loss to the lowest possible loss converges to one. We also derive the convergence rate which provides more insights to model averaging. Compared to model selection methods of SVM which require a tedious but critical task of tuning parameter selection, the model averaging method avoids the task and shows promising performances in the empirical studies.