Matthew K. Nock

Genesis Hang, Annie Chen, Hope Neveux et al.

Ecological Momentary Assessment provides real-time data on suicidal thoughts and behaviors, but predicting suicide attempts remains challenging due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity. We show that single models fit to all patients perform poorly, while individualized models improve performance but still overfit to patients with limited data. To address this, we introduce Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity, enabling those with little data to leverage similar patients' trends. Preliminary results show promise: even without kernel-design, we outperform all but one baseline while offering a new understanding of patient similarity.

Yue-Jane Liu, Malinda Lu, Matthew K. Nock et al.

Many modern probabilistic models rely on SDEs, but their adoption is hampered by instability, poor inductive bias outside bounded domains, and reliance on restrictive dynamics or training tricks. While recent work constrains SDEs to compact spaces using reflected dynamics, these approaches lack continuous dynamics and efficient high-order solvers, limiting interpretability and applicability. We propose a novel class of neural SDEs on compact polyhedral spaces with continuous dynamics, amenable to higher-order solvers, and with favorable inductive bias.