Lukas Gonon

Konrad J. Mueller, Nikita Zozoulenko, Ben Wood et al.

Generating realistic financial time series is challenging as training data is often limited to a single historical path. With such scarce data, overfitting is hard to avoid, especially under adversarial training where a trained discriminator can memorize the training samples. To mitigate this, recent approaches train generators to minimize the discrepancy between untrained feature representations of real and generated time series. In these works, the feature maps are based on path signatures, which can fail to capture relevant time series properties at tractable truncation depths. In this work, we instead train generators by matching random convolutional features of real and generated time series. Existing random convolutional feature maps, such as Rocket and Hydra, have been shown to provide informative representations of real-world time series, but cannot supervise generative models because they are non-differentiable. We introduce SOCK (SOft Competing Kernels), a fully differentiable random convolutional feature map, suited to train generative time series models. We show that generators trained by matching random SOCK features consistently outperform signature and diffusion baselines across a wide range of small-sample financial datasets. We further demonstrate SOCK's expressiveness on two-sample hypothesis testing and time series classification tasks, where SOCK matches or outperforms existing unsupervised feature maps.

Hans Bühler, Lukas Gonon, Josef Teichmann et al.

We present a framework for hedging a portfolio of derivatives in the presence of market frictions such as transaction costs, market impact, liquidity constraints or risk limits using modern deep reinforcement machine learning methods. We discuss how standard reinforcement learning methods can be applied to non-linear reward structures, i.e. in our case convex risk measures. As a general contribution to the use of deep learning for stochastic processes, we also show that the set of constrained trading strategies used by our algorithm is large enough to $ε$-approximate any optimal solution. Our algorithm can be implemented efficiently even in high-dimensional situations using modern machine learning tools. Its structure does not depend on specific market dynamics, and generalizes across hedging instruments including the use of liquid derivatives. Its computational performance is largely invariant in the size of the portfolio as it depends mainly on the number of hedging instruments available. We illustrate our approach by showing the effect on hedging under transaction costs in a synthetic market driven by the Heston model, where we outperform the standard "complete market" solution.

Lukas Gonon, Lyudmila Grigoryeva, Juan-Pablo Ortega

Reservoir computing approximation and generalization bounds are proved for a new concept class of input/output systems that extends the so-called generalized Barron functionals to a dynamic context. This new class is characterized by the readouts with a certain integral representation built on infinite-dimensional state-space systems. It is shown that this class is very rich and possesses useful features and universal approximation properties. The reservoir architectures used for the approximation and estimation of elements in the new class are randomly generated echo state networks with either linear or ReLU activation functions. Their readouts are built using randomly generated neural networks in which only the output layer is trained (extreme learning machines or random feature neural networks). The results in the paper yield a fully implementable recurrent neural network-based learning algorithm with provable convergence guarantees that do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality.

Lukas Gonon, Antoine Jacquier

Universal approximation theorems are the foundations of classical neural networks, providing theoretical guarantees that the latter are able to approximate maps of interest. Recent results have shown that this can also be achieved in a quantum setting, whereby classical functions can be approximated by parameterised quantum circuits. We provide here precise error bounds for specific classes of functions and extend these results to the interesting new setup of randomised quantum circuits, mimicking classical reservoir neural networks. Our results show in particular that a quantum neural network with $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-2})$ weights and $\mathcal{O} (\lceil \log_2(\varepsilon^{-1}) \rceil)$ qubits suffices to achieve accuracy $\varepsilon>0$ when approximating functions with integrable Fourier transform.

Lukas Gonon, Lyudmila Grigoryeva, Juan-Pablo Ortega

A universal kernel is constructed whose sections approximate any causal and time-invariant filter in the fading memory category with inputs and outputs in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space. This kernel is built using the reservoir functional associated with a state-space representation of the Volterra series expansion available for any analytic fading memory filter, and it is hence called the Volterra reservoir kernel. Even though the state-space representation and the corresponding reservoir feature map are defined on an infinite-dimensional tensor algebra space, the kernel map is characterized by explicit recursions that are readily computable for specific data sets when employed in estimation problems using the representer theorem. The empirical performance of the Volterra reservoir kernel is showcased and compared to other standard static and sequential kernels in a multidimensional and highly nonlinear learning task for the conditional covariances of financial asset returns.

Lukas Gonon, Robin Graeber, Arnulf Jentzen

In this article we study high-dimensional approximation capacities of shallow and deep artificial neural networks (ANNs) with the rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation. In particular, it is a key contribution of this work to reveal that for all $a,b\in\mathbb{R}$ with $b-a\geq 7$ we have that the functions $[a,b]^d\ni x=(x_1,\dots,x_d)\mapsto\prod_{i=1}^d x_i\in\mathbb{R}$ for $d\in\mathbb{N}$ as well as the functions $[a,b]^d\ni x =(x_1,\dots, x_d)\mapsto\sin(\prod_{i=1}^d x_i) \in \mathbb{R} $ for $ d \in \mathbb{N} $ can neither be approximated without the curse of dimensionality by means of shallow ANNs nor insufficiently deep ANNs with ReLU activation but can be approximated without the curse of dimensionality by sufficiently deep ANNs with ReLU activation. We show that the product functions and the sine of the product functions are polynomially tractable approximation problems among the approximating class of deep ReLU ANNs with the number of hidden layers being allowed to grow in the dimension $ d \in \mathbb{N} $. We establish the above outlined statements not only for the product functions and the sine of the product functions but also for other classes of target functions, in particular, for classes of uniformly globally bounded $ C^{ \infty } $-functions with compact support on any $[a,b]^d$ with $a\in\mathbb{R}$, $b\in(a,\infty)$. Roughly speaking, in this work we lay open that simple approximation problems such as approximating the sine or cosine of products cannot be solved in standard implementation frameworks by shallow or insufficiently deep ANNs with ReLU activation in polynomial time, but can be approximated by sufficiently deep ReLU ANNs with the number of parameters growing at most polynomially.

Nikita Zozoulenko, Daniel Falkowski, Thomas Cass et al.

Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDTs) dominate tabular machine learning, with modern implementations like XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost being based on Newton boosting: a second-order descent step in the space of decision trees. Despite its empirical success, the global convergence of Newton boosting is poorly understood compared to first-order boosting. In this paper, we introduce Restricted Newton Descent, which studies convex optimization with Newton's method on Hilbert spaces with inexact iterates, based on the concepts of cosine angle and weak gradient edge. Within this framework, we recover Newton boosting with GBDTs and classical finite-dimensional theory as special cases. We first prove that vanilla Newton boosting achieves a linear rate of convergence for smooth, strongly convex losses that satisfy a Hessian-dominance condition. To handle general convex losses with Lipschitz Hessians, we extend a recent gradient regularized Newton scheme to the restricted weak learner setting. This scheme minimally modifies the classical algorithm by introducing an adaptive $\ell_2$-regularization term proportional to the square root of the gradient norm at each iteration. We establish a $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{k^2})$ rate for this scheme, thereby obtaining a globally convergent second-order GBDT algorithm with a rate matching that of first-order boosting with Nesterov momentum. In numerical experiments, we show that our scheme converges while vanilla Newton boosting may diverge.

Lukas Gonon

This article studies deep neural network expression rates for optimal stopping problems of discrete-time Markov processes on high-dimensional state spaces. A general framework is established in which the value function and continuation value of an optimal stopping problem can be approximated with error at most $\varepsilon$ by a deep ReLU neural network of size at most $κd^{\mathfrak{q}} \varepsilon^{-\mathfrak{r}}$. The constants $κ,\mathfrak{q},\mathfrak{r} \geq 0$ do not depend on the dimension $d$ of the state space or the approximation accuracy $\varepsilon$. This proves that deep neural networks do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality when employed to solve optimal stopping problems. The framework covers, for example, exponential Lévy models, discrete diffusion processes and their running minima and maxima. These results mathematically justify the use of deep neural networks for numerically solving optimal stopping problems and pricing American options in high dimensions.

Muhammed Ali Mehmood, Lukas Gonon

Neural networks with randomly generated hidden weights (RaNNs) have been extensively studied, both as a standalone learning method and as an initialization for fully trainable deep learning methods. In this work, we study RaNN expressivity for learning solutions to non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their widespread use in practical applications, a rigorous theoretical understanding of the approximation properties of RaNNs in this context remains limited. Here, we derive error bounds for RaNN approximations to time-dependent Sobolev functions and obtain a dimension-free approximation rate $\frac{1}{2}$ for sufficiently regular functions. We apply our results to two important classes of non-linear PDEs: Porous Medium Equations and Compressible Navier-Stokes Equations, showing that RaNNs are capable of efficiently approximating solutions to these complex, non-linear PDEs. Our theoretical analysis is supported by numerical experiments, showing that the obtained convergence rates extend beyond the considered setting.

Lukas Gonon, Thilo Meyer-Brandis, Niklas Weber

This paper investigates systemic risk measures for stochastic financial networks of explicitly modelled bilateral liabilities. We extend the notion of systemic risk measures from Biagini, Fouque, Fritelli and Meyer-Brandis (2019) to graph structured data. In particular, we focus on an aggregation function that is derived from a market clearing algorithm proposed by Eisenberg and Noe (2001). In this setting, we show the existence of an optimal random allocation that distributes the overall minimal bailout capital and secures the network. We study numerical methods for the approximation of systemic risk and optimal random allocations. We propose to use permutation equivariant architectures of neural networks like graph neural networks (GNNs) and a class that we name (extended) permutation equivariant neural networks ((X)PENNs). We compare their performance to several benchmark allocations. The main feature of GNNs and (X)PENNs is that they are permutation equivariant with respect to the underlying graph data. In numerical experiments we find evidence that these permutation equivariant methods are superior to other approaches.

Nikita Zozoulenko, Thomas Cass, Lukas Gonon

The Mahalanobis distance is a classical tool used to measure the covariance-adjusted distance between points in $\bbR^d$. In this work, we extend the concept of Mahalanobis distance to separable Banach spaces by reinterpreting it as a Cameron-Martin norm associated with a probability measure. This approach leads to a basis-free, data-driven notion of anomaly distance through the so-called variance norm, which can naturally be estimated using empirical measures of a sample. Our framework generalizes the classical $\bbR^d$, functional $(L^2[0,1])^d$, and kernelized settings; importantly, it incorporates non-injective covariance operators. We prove that the variance norm is invariant under invertible bounded linear transformations of the data, extending previous results which are limited to unitary operators. In the Hilbert space setting, we connect the variance norm to the RKHS of the covariance operator, and establish consistency and convergence results for estimation using empirical measures with Tikhonov regularization. Using the variance norm, we introduce the notion of a kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance, and study some of its finite-sample concentration properties. In an empirical study on 12 real-world data sets, we demonstrate that the kernelized nearest-neighbour Mahalanobis distance outperforms the traditional kernelized Mahalanobis distance for multivariate time series novelty detection, using state-of-the-art time series kernels such as the signature, global alignment, and Volterra reservoir kernels.

Konrad Mueller, Amira Akkari, Lukas Gonon et al.

Hedging exotic options in presence of market frictions is an important risk management task. Deep hedging can solve such hedging problems by training neural network policies in realistic simulated markets. Training these neural networks may be delicate and suffer from slow convergence, particularly for options with long maturities and complex sensitivities to market parameters. To address this, we propose a second-order optimization scheme for deep hedging. We leverage pathwise differentiability to construct a curvature matrix, which we approximate as block-diagonal and Kronecker-factored to efficiently precondition gradients. We evaluate our method on a challenging and practically important problem: hedging a cliquet option on a stock with stochastic volatility by trading in the spot and vanilla options. We find that our second-order scheme can optimize the policy in 1/4 of the number of steps that standard adaptive moment-based optimization takes.

Nikita Zozoulenko, Thomas Cass, Lukas Gonon

We introduce Random Feature Representation Boosting (RFRBoost), a novel method for constructing deep residual random feature neural networks (RFNNs) using boosting theory. RFRBoost uses random features at each layer to learn the functional gradient of the network representation, enhancing performance while preserving the convex optimization benefits of RFNNs. In the case of MSE loss, we obtain closed-form solutions to greedy layer-wise boosting with random features. For general loss functions, we show that fitting random feature residual blocks reduces to solving a quadratically constrained least squares problem. Through extensive numerical experiments on tabular datasets for both regression and classification, we show that RFRBoost significantly outperforms RFNNs and end-to-end trained MLP ResNets in the small- to medium-scale regime where RFNNs are typically applied. Moreover, RFRBoost offers substantial computational benefits, and theoretical guarantees stemming from boosting theory.

Lukas Gonon, Rodrigo Martínez-Peña, Juan-Pablo Ortega

Quantum reservoir computing uses the dynamics of quantum systems to process temporal data, making it particularly well-suited for learning with noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices. Early experimental proposals, such as the restarting and rewinding protocols, relied on repeating previous steps of the quantum map to avoid backaction. However, this approach compromises real-time processing and increases computational overhead. Recent developments have introduced alternative protocols that address these limitations. These include online, mid-circuit measurement, and feedback techniques, which enable real-time computation while preserving the input history. Among these, the feedback protocol stands out for its ability to process temporal information with comparatively fewer components. Despite this potential advantage, the theoretical foundations of feedback-based quantum reservoir computing remain underdeveloped, particularly with regard to the universality and the approximation capabilities of this approach. This paper addresses this issue by presenting a recurrent quantum neural network architecture that extends a class of existing feedforward models to a dynamic, feedback-driven reservoir setting. We provide theoretical guarantees for variational recurrent quantum neural networks, including approximation bounds and universality results. Notably, our analysis demonstrates that the model is universal with linear readouts, making it both powerful and experimentally accessible. These results pave the way for practical and theoretically grounded quantum reservoir computing with real-time processing capabilities.

Lukas Gonon, Antoine Jacquier, Marcel Mordarski

We provide here a universal approximation theorem with precise quantitative error bounds for noisy quantum neural networks. We focus on applications to Quantitative Finance, where target functions are often given as expectations. We further provide a detailed numerical analysis, testing our results on actual noisy quantum hardware.

Iulian Cîmpean, Thang Do, Lukas Gonon et al.

The deep Kolmogorov method is a simple and popular deep learning based method for approximating solutions of partial differential equations (PDEs) of the Kolmogorov type. In this work we provide an error analysis for the deep Kolmogorov method for heat PDEs. Specifically, we reveal convergence with convergence rates for the overall mean square distance between the exact solution of the heat PDE and the realization function of the approximating deep neural network (DNN) associated with a stochastic optimization algorithm in terms of the size of the architecture (the depth/number of hidden layers and the width of the hidden layers) of the approximating DNN, in terms of the number of random sample points used in the loss function (the number of input-output data pairs used in the loss function), and in terms of the size of the optimization error made by the employed stochastic optimization method.

Guangyi He, Tobias Sutter, Lukas Gonon

In this paper, we study the robustness of classical deep hedging strategies under distributional shifts by leveraging the concept of adversarial attacks. We first demonstrate that standard deep hedging models are highly vulnerable to small perturbations in the input distribution, resulting in significant performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose an adversarial training framework tailored to increase the robustness of deep hedging strategies. Our approach extends pointwise adversarial attacks to the distributional setting and introduces a computationally tractable reformulation of the adversarial optimization problem over a Wasserstein ball. This enables the efficient training of hedging strategies that are resilient to distributional perturbations. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that adversarially trained deep hedging strategies consistently outperform their classical counterparts in terms of out-of-sample performance and resilience to model misspecification. Additional results indicate that the robust strategies maintain reliable performance on real market data and remain effective during periods of market change. Our findings establish a practical and effective framework for robust deep hedging under realistic market uncertainties.

Francesca Biagini, Lukas Gonon, Niklas Walter

Randomised signature has been proposed as a flexible and easily implementable alternative to the well-established path signature. In this article, we employ randomised signature to introduce a generative model for financial time series data in the spirit of reservoir computing. Specifically, we propose a novel Wasserstein-type distance based on discrete-time randomised signatures. This metric on the space of probability measures captures the distance between (conditional) distributions. Its use is justified by our novel universal approximation results for randomised signatures on the space of continuous functions taking the underlying path as an input. We then use our metric as the loss function in a non-adversarial generator model for synthetic time series data based on a reservoir neural stochastic differential equation. We compare the results of our model to benchmarks from the existing literature.

Lukas Gonon

This article investigates the use of random feature neural networks for learning Kolmogorov partial (integro-)differential equations associated to Black-Scholes and more general exponential Lévy models. Random feature neural networks are single-hidden-layer feedforward neural networks in which only the output weights are trainable. This makes training particularly simple, but (a priori) reduces expressivity. Interestingly, this is not the case for Black-Scholes type PDEs, as we show here. We derive bounds for the prediction error of random neural networks for learning sufficiently non-degenerate Black-Scholes type models. A full error analysis is provided and it is shown that the derived bounds do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality. We also investigate an application of these results to basket options and validate the bounds numerically. These results prove that neural networks are able to \textit{learn} solutions to Black-Scholes type PDEs without the curse of dimensionality. In addition, this provides an example of a relevant learning problem in which random feature neural networks are provably efficient.

Lukas Gonon, Juan-Pablo Ortega

Echo state networks (ESNs) have been recently proved to be universal approximants for input/output systems with respect to various $L ^p$-type criteria. When $1\leq p< \infty$, only $p$-integrability hypotheses need to be imposed, while in the case $p=\infty$ a uniform boundedness hypotheses on the inputs is required. This note shows that, in the last case, a universal family of ESNs can be constructed that contains exclusively elements that have the echo state and the fading memory properties. This conclusion could not be drawn with the results and methods available so far in the literature.

Christa Cuchiero, Lukas Gonon, Lyudmila Grigoryeva et al.

A new explanation of geometric nature of the reservoir computing phenomenon is presented. Reservoir computing is understood in the literature as the possibility of approximating input/output systems with randomly chosen recurrent neural systems and a trained linear readout layer. Light is shed on this phenomenon by constructing what is called strongly universal reservoir systems as random projections of a family of state-space systems that generate Volterra series expansions. This procedure yields a state-affine reservoir system with randomly generated coefficients in a dimension that is logarithmically reduced with respect to the original system. This reservoir system is able to approximate any element in the fading memory filters class just by training a different linear readout for each different filter. Explicit expressions for the probability distributions needed in the generation of the projected reservoir system are stated and bounds for the committed approximation error are provided.

Aritz Bercher, Lukas Gonon, Arnulf Jentzen et al.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) type optimization schemes are fundamental ingredients in a large number of machine learning based algorithms. In particular, SGD type optimization schemes are frequently employed in applications involving natural language processing, object and face recognition, fraud detection, computational advertisement, and numerical approximations of partial differential equations. In mathematical convergence results for SGD type optimization schemes there are usually two types of error criteria studied in the scientific literature, that is, the error in the strong sense and the error with respect to the objective function. In applications one is often not only interested in the size of the error with respect to the objective function but also in the size of the error with respect to a test function which is possibly different from the objective function. The analysis of the size of this error is the subject of this article. In particular, the main result of this article proves under suitable assumptions that the size of this error decays at the same speed as in the special case where the test function coincides with the objective function.

Lukas Gonon, Lyudmila Grigoryeva, Juan-Pablo Ortega

The notion of memory capacity, originally introduced for echo state and linear networks with independent inputs, is generalized to nonlinear recurrent networks with stationary but dependent inputs. The presence of dependence in the inputs makes natural the introduction of the network forecasting capacity, that measures the possibility of forecasting time series values using network states. Generic bounds for memory and forecasting capacities are formulated in terms of the number of neurons of the nonlinear recurrent network and the autocovariance function or the spectral density of the input. These bounds generalize well-known estimates in the literature to a dependent inputs setup. Finally, for the particular case of linear recurrent networks with independent inputs it is proved that the memory capacity is given by the rank of the associated controllability matrix, a fact that has been for a long time assumed to be true without proof by the community.

Lukas Gonon, Lyudmila Grigoryeva, Juan-Pablo Ortega

This work studies approximation based on single-hidden-layer feedforward and recurrent neural networks with randomly generated internal weights. These methods, in which only the last layer of weights and a few hyperparameters are optimized, have been successfully applied in a wide range of static and dynamic learning problems. Despite the popularity of this approach in empirical tasks, important theoretical questions regarding the relation between the unknown function, the weight distribution, and the approximation rate have remained open. In this work it is proved that, as long as the unknown function, functional, or dynamical system is sufficiently regular, it is possible to draw the internal weights of the random (recurrent) neural network from a generic distribution (not depending on the unknown object) and quantify the error in terms of the number of neurons and the hyperparameters. In particular, this proves that echo state networks with randomly generated weights are capable of approximating a wide class of dynamical systems arbitrarily well and thus provides the first mathematical explanation for their empirically observed success at learning dynamical systems.

Lukas Gonon, Philipp Grohs, Arnulf Jentzen et al.

Recently, artificial neural networks (ANNs) in conjunction with stochastic gradient descent optimization methods have been employed to approximately compute solutions of possibly rather high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs). Very recently, there have also been a number of rigorous mathematical results in the scientific literature which examine the approximation capabilities of such deep learning based approximation algorithms for PDEs. These mathematical results from the scientific literature prove in part that algorithms based on ANNs are capable of overcoming the curse of dimensionality in the numerical approximation of high-dimensional PDEs. In these mathematical results from the scientific literature usually the error between the solution of the PDE and the approximating ANN is measured in the $L^p$-sense with respect to some $p \in [1,\infty)$ and some probability measure. In many applications it is, however, also important to control the error in a uniform $L^\infty$-sense. The key contribution of the main result of this article is to develop the techniques to obtain error estimates between solutions of PDEs and approximating ANNs in the uniform $L^\infty$-sense. In particular, we prove that the number of parameters of an ANN to uniformly approximate the classical solution of the heat equation in a region $ [a,b]^d $ for a fixed time point $ T \in (0,\infty) $ grows at most polynomially in the dimension $ d \in \mathbb{N} $ and the reciprocal of the approximation precision $ \varepsilon > 0 $. This shows that ANNs can overcome the curse of dimensionality in the numerical approximation of the heat equation when the error is measured in the uniform $L^\infty$-norm.

Lukas Gonon, Lyudmila Grigoryeva, Juan-Pablo Ortega

We analyze the practices of reservoir computing in the framework of statistical learning theory. In particular, we derive finite sample upper bounds for the generalization error committed by specific families of reservoir computing systems when processing discrete-time inputs under various hypotheses on their dependence structure. Non-asymptotic bounds are explicitly written down in terms of the multivariate Rademacher complexities of the reservoir systems and the weak dependence structure of the signals that are being handled. This allows, in particular, to determine the minimal number of observations needed in order to guarantee a prescribed estimation accuracy with high probability for a given reservoir family. At the same time, the asymptotic behavior of the devised bounds guarantees the consistency of the empirical risk minimization procedure for various hypothesis classes of reservoir functionals.

Lukas Gonon, Juan-Pablo Ortega

The universal approximation properties with respect to $L ^p $-type criteria of three important families of reservoir computers with stochastic discrete-time semi-infinite inputs is shown. First, it is proved that linear reservoir systems with either polynomial or neural network readout maps are universal. More importantly, it is proved that the same property holds for two families with linear readouts, namely, trigonometric state-affine systems and echo state networks, which are the most widely used reservoir systems in applications. The linearity in the readouts is a key feature in supervised machine learning applications. It guarantees that these systems can be used in high-dimensional situations and in the presence of large datasets. The $L ^p $ criteria used in this paper allow the formulation of universality results that do not necessarily impose almost sure uniform boundedness in the inputs or the fading memory property in the filter that needs to be approximated.