Sören Schleibaum

Sören Schleibaum, Jörg P. Müller, Monika Sester

To compare alternative taxi schedules and to compute them, as well as to provide insights into an upcoming taxi trip to drivers and passengers, the duration of a trip or its Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) is predicted. To reach a high prediction precision, machine learning models for ETA are state of the art. One yet unexploited option to further increase prediction precision is to combine multiple ETA models into an ensemble. While an increase of prediction precision is likely, the main drawback is that the predictions made by such an ensemble become less transparent due to the sophisticated ensemble architecture. One option to remedy this drawback is to apply eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI). The contribution of this paper is three-fold. First, we combine multiple machine learning models from our previous work for ETA into a two-level ensemble model - a stacked ensemble model - which on its own is novel; therefore, we can outperform previous state-of-the-art static route-free ETA approaches. Second, we apply existing XAI methods to explain the first- and second-level models of the ensemble. Third, we propose three joining methods for combining the first-level explanations with the second-level ones. Those joining methods enable us to explain stacked ensembles for regression tasks. An experimental evaluation shows that the ETA models correctly learned the importance of those input features driving the prediction.

Sören Schleibaum, Anton Frederik Thielmann, Julian Teusch et al.

Intelligibility and accurate uncertainty estimation are crucial for reliable decision-making. In this paper, we propose EviNAM, an extension of evidential learning that integrates the interpretability of Neural Additive Models (NAMs) with principled uncertainty estimation. Unlike standard Bayesian neural networks and previous evidential methods, EviNAM enables, in a single pass, both the estimation of the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty as well as explicit feature contributions. Experiments on synthetic and real data demonstrate that EviNAM matches state-of-the-art predictive performance. While we focus on regression, our method extends naturally to classification and generalized additive models, offering a path toward more intelligible and trustworthy predictions.

Sarit Kraus, Amos Azaria, Jelena Fiosina et al.

Explanation is necessary for humans to understand and accept decisions made by an AI system when the system's goal is known. It is even more important when the AI system makes decisions in multi-agent environments where the human does not know the systems' goals since they may depend on other agents' preferences. In such situations, explanations should aim to increase user satisfaction, taking into account the system's decision, the user's and the other agents' preferences, the environment settings and properties such as fairness, envy and privacy. Generating explanations that will increase user satisfaction is very challenging; to this end, we propose a new research direction: xMASE. We then review the state of the art and discuss research directions towards efficient methodologies and algorithms for generating explanations that will increase users' satisfaction from AI system's decisions in multi-agent environments.