Marios M. Polycarpou

Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou, Marios M. Polycarpou

We have witnessed in recent years an ever-growing volume of information becoming available in a streaming manner in various application areas. As a result, there is an emerging need for online learning methods that train predictive models on-the-fly. A series of open challenges, however, hinder their deployment in practice. These are, learning as data arrive in real-time one-by-one, learning from data with limited ground truth information, learning from nonstationary data, and learning from severely imbalanced data, while occupying a limited amount of memory for data storage. We propose the ActiSiamese algorithm, which addresses these challenges by combining online active learning, siamese networks, and a multi-queue memory. It develops a new density-based active learning strategy which considers similarity in the latent (rather than the input) space. We conduct an extensive study that compares the role of different active learning budgets and strategies, the performance with/without memory, the performance with/without ensembling, in both synthetic and real-world datasets, under different data nonstationarity characteristics and class imbalance levels. ActiSiamese outperforms baseline and state-of-the-art algorithms, and is effective under severe imbalance, even only when a fraction of the arriving instances' labels is available. We publicly release our code to the community.

Kleanthis Malialis, Manuel Roveri, Cesare Alippi et al.

In real-world applications, the process generating the data might suffer from nonstationary effects (e.g., due to seasonality, faults affecting sensors or actuators, and changes in the users' behaviour). These changes, often called concept drift, might induce severe (potentially catastrophic) impacts on trained learning models that become obsolete over time, and inadequate to solve the task at hand. Learning in presence of concept drift aims at designing machine and deep learning models that are able to track and adapt to concept drift. Typically, techniques to handle concept drift are either active or passive, and traditionally, these have been considered to be mutually exclusive. Active techniques use an explicit drift detection mechanism, and re-train the learning algorithm when concept drift is detected. Passive techniques use an implicit method to deal with drift, and continually update the model using incremental learning. Differently from what present in the literature, we propose a hybrid alternative which merges the two approaches, hence, leveraging on their advantages. The proposed method called Hybrid-Adaptive REBAlancing (HAREBA) significantly outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods in terms of learning quality and speed; we experiment how it is effective under severe class imbalance levels too.

Kleanthis Malialis, Dimitris Papatheodoulou, Stylianos Filippou et al.

There is an emerging need for predictive models to be trained on-the-fly, since in numerous machine learning applications data are arriving in an online fashion. A critical challenge encountered is that of limited availability of ground truth information (e.g., labels in classification tasks) as new data are observed one-by-one online, while another significant challenge is that of class imbalance. This work introduces the novel Augmented Queues method, which addresses the dual-problem by combining in a synergistic manner online active learning, data augmentation, and a multi-queue memory to maintain separate and balanced queues for each class. We perform an extensive experimental study using image and time-series augmentations, in which we examine the roles of the active learning budget, memory size, imbalance level, and neural network type. We demonstrate two major advantages of Augmented Queues. First, it does not reserve additional memory space as the generation of synthetic data occurs only at training times. Second, learning models have access to more labelled data without the need to increase the active learning budget and / or the original memory size. Learning on-the-fly poses major challenges which, typically, hinder the deployment of learning models. Augmented Queues significantly improves the performance in terms of learning quality and speed. Our code is made publicly available.

Pavlos Pavlou, Stelios Vrachimis, Demetrios G. Eliades et al.

Smart metering of domestic water consumption to continuously monitor the usage of different appliances has been shown to have an impact on people's behavior towards water conservation. However, the installation of multiple sensors to monitor each appliance currently has a high initial cost and as a result, monitoring consumption from different appliances using sensors is not cost-effective. To address this challenge, studies have focused on analyzing measurements of the total domestic consumption using Machine Learning (ML) methods, to disaggregate water usage into each appliance. Identifying which appliances are in use through ML is challenging since their operation may be overlapping, while specific appliances may operate with intermittent flow, making individual consumption events hard to distinguish. Moreover, ML approaches require large amounts of labeled input data to train their models, which are typically not available for a single household, while usage characteristics may vary in different regions. In this work, we initially propose a data model that generates synthetic time series based on regional water usage characteristics and resolution to overcome the need for a large training dataset with real labeled data. The method requires a small number of real labeled data from the studied region. Following this, we propose a new algorithm for classifying single and overlapping household water usage events, using the total domestic consumption measurements.

Jin Li, Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou et al.

In today's digital world, the generation of vast amounts of streaming data in various domains has become ubiquitous. However, many of these data are unlabeled, making it challenging to identify events, particularly anomalies. This task becomes even more formidable in nonstationary environments where model performance can deteriorate over time due to concept drift. To address these challenges, this paper presents a novel method, VAE++ESDD, which employs incremental learning and two-level ensembling: an ensemble of Variational AutoEncoder(VAEs) for anomaly prediction, along with an ensemble of concept drift detectors. Each drift detector utilizes a statistical-based concept drift mechanism. To evaluate the effectiveness of VAE++ESDD, we conduct a comprehensive experimental study using real-world and synthetic datasets characterized by severely or extremely low anomalous rates and various drift characteristics. Our study reveals that the proposed method significantly outperforms both strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods.

Charalampos Shimillas, Kleanthis Malialis, Konstantinos Fokianos et al.

Multivariate time series (MTS) anomaly diagnosis, which encompasses both anomaly detection and localization, is critical for the safety and reliability of complex, large-scale real-world systems. The vast majority of existing anomaly diagnosis methods offer limited theoretical insights, especially for anomaly localization, which is a vital but largely unexplored area. The aim of this contribution is to study the learning process of a Transformer when applied to MTS by revealing connections to statistical time series methods. Based on these theoretical insights, we propose the Attention Low-Rank Transformer (ALoRa-T) model, which applies low-rank regularization to self-attention, and we introduce the Attention Low-Rank score, effectively capturing the temporal characteristics of anomalies. Finally, to enable anomaly localization, we propose the ALoRa-Loc method, a novel approach that associates anomalies to specific variables by quantifying interrelationships among time series. Extensive experiments and real data analysis, show that the proposed methodology significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both detection and localization tasks.

Kleanthis Malialis, Stylianos Filippou, Christos G. Panayiotou et al.

Data stream mining, also known as stream learning, is a growing area which deals with learning from high-speed arriving data. Its relevance has surged recently due to its wide range of applicability, such as, critical infrastructure monitoring, social media analysis, and recommender systems. The design of stream learning methods faces significant research challenges; from the nonstationary nature of the data (referred to as concept drift) and the fact that data streams are typically not annotated with the ground truth, to the requirement that such methods should process large amounts of data in real-time with limited memory. This work proposes the SiameseDuo++ method, which uses active learning to automatically select instances for a human expert to label according to a budget. Specifically, it incrementally trains two siamese neural networks which operate in synergy, augmented by generated examples. Both the proposed active learning strategy and augmentation operate in the latent space. SiameseDuo++ addresses the aforementioned challenges by operating with limited memory and limited labelling budget. Simulation experiments show that the proposed method outperforms strong baselines and state-of-the-art methods in terms of learning speed and/or performance. To promote open science we publicly release our code and datasets.

Savvas Papaioannou, Panayiotis Kolios, Christos G. Panayiotou et al.

In the rapidly changing environments of disaster response, planning and decision-making for autonomous agents involve complex and interdependent choices. Although recent advancements have improved traditional artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, they often struggle in such settings, particularly when applied to agents operating outside their well-defined training parameters. To address these challenges, we propose an attention-based cognitive architecture inspired by Dual Process Theory (DPT). This framework integrates, in an online fashion, rapid yet heuristic (human-like) responses (System 1) with the slow but optimized planning capabilities of machine intelligence (System 2). We illustrate how a supervisory controller can dynamically determine in real-time the engagement of either system to optimize mission objectives by assessing their performance across a number of distinct attributes. Evaluated for trajectory planning in dynamic environments, our framework demonstrates that this synergistic integration effectively manages complex tasks by optimizing multiple mission objectives.

Charalampos Shimillas, Kleanthis Malialis, Konstantinos Fokianos et al.

With the growing complexity of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) and the integration of Internet of Things (IoT), the use of sensors for online monitoring generates large volume of multivariate time series (MTS) data. Consequently, the need for robust anomaly diagnosis in MTS is paramount to maintaining system reliability and safety. While significant advancements have been made in anomaly detection, localization remains a largely underexplored area, though crucial for intelligent decision-making. This paper introduces a novel transformer-based model for unsupervised anomaly diagnosis in MTS, with a focus on improving localization performance, through an in-depth analysis of the self-attention mechanism's learning behavior under both normal and anomalous conditions. We formulate the anomaly localization problem as a three-stage process: time-step, window, and segment-based. This leads to the development of the Space-Time Anomaly Score (STAS), a new metric inspired by the connection between transformer latent representations and space-time statistical models. STAS is designed to capture individual anomaly behaviors and inter-series dependencies, delivering enhanced localization performance. Additionally, the Statistical Feature Anomaly Score (SFAS) complements STAS by analyzing statistical features around anomalies, with their combination helping to reduce false alarms. Experiments on real world and synthetic datasets illustrate the model's superiority over state-of-the-art methods in both detection and localization tasks.

Kleanthis Malialis, Jin Li, Christos G. Panayiotou et al.

Data stream mining aims at extracting meaningful knowledge from continually evolving data streams, addressing the challenges posed by nonstationary environments, particularly, concept drift which refers to a change in the underlying data distribution over time. Graph structures offer a powerful modelling tool to represent complex systems, such as, critical infrastructure systems and social networks. Learning from graph streams becomes a necessity to understand the dynamics of graph structures and to facilitate informed decision-making. This work introduces a novel method for graph stream classification which operates under the general setting where a data generating process produces graphs with varying nodes and edges over time. The method uses incremental learning for continual model adaptation, selecting representative graphs (prototypes) for each class, and creating graph embeddings. Additionally, it incorporates a loss-based concept drift detection mechanism to recalculate graph prototypes when drift is detected.

André Artelt, Stelios G. Vrachimis, Demetrios G. Eliades et al.

The increasing penetration of information and communication technologies in the design, monitoring, and control of water systems enables the use of algorithms for detecting and identifying unanticipated events (such as leakages or water contamination) using sensor measurements. However, data-driven methodologies do not always give accurate results and are often not trusted by operators, who may prefer to use their engineering judgment and experience to deal with such events. In this work, we propose a framework for interpretable event diagnosis -- an approach that assists the operators in associating the results of algorithmic event diagnosis methodologies with their own intuition and experience. This is achieved by providing contrasting (i.e., counterfactual) explanations of the results provided by fault diagnosis algorithms; their aim is to improve the understanding of the algorithm's inner workings by the operators, thus enabling them to take a more informed decision by combining the results with their personal experiences. Specifically, we propose counterfactual event fingerprints, a representation of the difference between the current event diagnosis and the closest alternative explanation, which can be presented in a graphical way. The proposed methodology is applied and evaluated on a realistic use case using the L-Town benchmark.

Jin Li, Kleanthis Malialis, Stelios G. Vrachimis et al.

Water Distribution Networks (WDNs), critical to public well-being and economic stability, face challenges such as pipe blockages and background leakages, exacerbated by operational constraints such as data non-stationarity and limited labeled data. This paper proposes an unsupervised, online learning framework that aims to detect two types of faults in WDNs: pipe blockages, modeled as collective anomalies, and background leakages, modeled as concept drift. Our approach combines a Long Short-Term Memory Variational Autoencoder (LSTM-VAE) with a dual drift detection mechanism, enabling robust detection and adaptation under non-stationary conditions. Its lightweight, memory-efficient design enables real-time, edge-level monitoring. Experiments on two realistic WDNs show that the proposed approach consistently outperforms strong baselines in detecting anomalies and adapting to recurrent drift, demonstrating its effectiveness in unsupervised event detection for dynamic WDN environments.

Ganghui Cao, Shimin Wang, Martin Guay et al.

This paper investigates parameter learning problems under deficient excitation (DE). The DE condition is a rank-deficient, and therefore, a more general evolution of the well-known persistent excitation condition. Under the DE condition, a proposed online algorithm is able to calculate the identifiable and non-identifiable subspaces, and finally give an optimal parameter estimate in the sense of least squares. In particular, the learning error within the identifiable subspace exponentially converges to zero in the noise-free case, even without persistent excitation. The DE condition also provides a new perspective for solving distributed parameter learning problems, where the challenge is posed by local regressors that are often insufficiently excited. To improve knowledge of the unknown parameters, a cooperative learning protocol is proposed for a group of estimators that collect measured information under complementary DE conditions. This protocol allows each local estimator to operate locally in its identifiable subspace, and reach a consensus with neighbours in its non-identifiable subspace. As a result, the task of estimating unknown parameters can be achieved in a distributed way using cooperative local estimators. Application examples in system identification are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results developed in this paper.

Jin Li, Kleanthis Malialis, Stelios G. Vrachimis et al.

Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are vital infrastructures, and contamination poses serious public health risks. Harmful substances can interact with disinfectants like chlorine, making chlorine monitoring essential for detecting contaminants. However, chlorine sensors often become unreliable and require frequent calibration. This study introduces the Dual-Threshold Anomaly and Drift Detection (AD&DD) method, an unsupervised approach combining a dual-threshold drift detection mechanism with an LSTM-based Variational Autoencoder(LSTM-VAE) for real-time contamination detection. Tested on two realistic WDNs, AD&DD effectively identifies anomalies with sensor offsets as concept drift, and outperforms other methods. A proposed decentralized architecture enables accurate contamination detection and localization by deploying AD&DD on selected nodes.

Kleanthis Malialis, Nefeli Mavri, Stelios G. Vrachimis et al.

Accurate water consumption forecasting is a crucial tool for water utilities and policymakers, as it helps ensure a reliable supply, optimize operations, and support infrastructure planning. Urban Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are divided into District Metered Areas (DMAs), where water flow is monitored to efficiently manage resources. This work focuses on short-term forecasting of DMA consumption using deep learning and aims to address two key challenging issues. First, forecasting based solely on a DMA's historical data may lack broader context and provide limited insights. Second, DMAs may experience sensor malfunctions providing incorrect data, or some DMAs may not be monitored at all due to computational costs, complicating accurate forecasting. We propose a novel method that first identifies DMAs with correlated consumption patterns and then uses these patterns, along with the DMA's local data, as input to a deep learning model for forecasting. In a real-world study with data from five DMAs, we show that: i) the deep learning model outperforms a classical statistical model; ii) accurate forecasting can be carried out using only correlated DMAs' consumption patterns; and iii) even when a DMA's local data is available, including correlated DMAs' data improves accuracy.

André Artelt, Marios S. Kyriakou, Stelios G. Vrachimis et al.

Drinking water is a vital resource for humanity, and thus, Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are considered critical infrastructures in modern societies. The operation of WDNs is subject to diverse challenges such as water leakages and contamination, cyber/physical attacks, high energy consumption during pump operation, etc. With model-based methods reaching their limits due to various uncertainty sources, AI methods offer promising solutions to those challenges. In this work, we introduce a Python toolbox for complex scenario modeling \& generation such that AI researchers can easily access challenging problems from the drinking water domain. Besides providing a high-level interface for the easy generation of hydraulic and water quality scenario data, it also provides easy access to popular event detection benchmarks and an environment for developing control algorithms.

Jin Li, Kleanthis Malialis, Marios M. Polycarpou

In our digital universe nowadays, enormous amount of data are produced in a streaming manner in a variety of application areas. These data are often unlabelled. In this case, identifying infrequent events, such as anomalies, poses a great challenge. This problem becomes even more difficult in non-stationary environments, which can cause deterioration of the predictive performance of a model. To address the above challenges, the paper proposes an autoencoder-based incremental learning method with drift detection (strAEm++DD). Our proposed method strAEm++DD leverages on the advantages of both incremental learning and drift detection. We conduct an experimental study using real-world and synthetic datasets with severe or extreme class imbalance, and provide an empirical analysis of strAEm++DD. We further conduct a comparative study, showing that the proposed method significantly outperforms existing baseline and advanced methods.

Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou, Marios M. Polycarpou

An ever increasing volume of data is nowadays becoming available in a streaming manner in many application areas, such as, in critical infrastructure systems, finance and banking, security and crime and web analytics. To meet this new demand, predictive models need to be built online where learning occurs on-the-fly. Online learning poses important challenges that affect the deployment of online classification systems to real-life problems. In this paper we investigate learning from limited labelled, nonstationary and imbalanced data in online classification. We propose a learning method that synergistically combines siamese neural networks and active learning. The proposed method uses a multi-sliding window approach to store data, and maintains separate and balanced queues for each class. Our study shows that the proposed method is robust to data nonstationarity and imbalance, and significantly outperforms baselines and state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of both learning speed and performance. Importantly, it is effective even when only 1% of the labels of the arriving instances are available.

Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou, Marios M. Polycarpou

An enormous and ever-growing volume of data is nowadays becoming available in a sequential fashion in various real-world applications. Learning in nonstationary environments constitutes a major challenge, and this problem becomes orders of magnitude more complex in the presence of class imbalance. We provide new insights into learning from nonstationary and imbalanced data in online learning, a largely unexplored area. We propose the novel Adaptive REBAlancing (AREBA) algorithm that selectively includes in the training set a subset of the majority and minority examples that appeared so far, while at its heart lies an adaptive mechanism to continually maintain the class balance between the selected examples. We compare AREBA with strong baselines and other state-of-the-art algorithms and perform extensive experimental work in scenarios with various class imbalance rates and different concept drift types on both synthetic and real-world data. AREBA significantly outperforms the rest with respect to both learning speed and learning quality. Our code is made publicly available to the scientific community.

Kleanthis Malialis, Christos G. Panayiotou, Marios M. Polycarpou

Online class imbalance learning constitutes a new problem and an emerging research topic that focusses on the challenges of online learning under class imbalance and concept drift. Class imbalance deals with data streams that have very skewed distributions while concept drift deals with changes in the class imbalance status. Little work exists that addresses these challenges and in this paper we introduce queue-based resampling, a novel algorithm that successfully addresses the co-existence of class imbalance and concept drift. The central idea of the proposed resampling algorithm is to selectively include in the training set a subset of the examples that appeared in the past. Results on two popular benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of queue-based resampling over state-of-the-art methods in terms of learning speed and quality.