Sabina Tomkins

Raaz Dwivedi, Katherine Tian, Sabina Tomkins et al. · harvard, mit

We introduce and analyze an improved variant of nearest neighbors (NN) for estimation with missing data in latent factor models. We consider a matrix completion problem with missing data, where the $(i, t)$-th entry, when observed, is given by its mean $f(u_i, v_t)$ plus mean-zero noise for an unknown function $f$ and latent factors $u_i$ and $v_t$. Prior NN strategies, like unit-unit NN, for estimating the mean $f(u_i, v_t)$ relies on existence of other rows $j$ with $u_j \approx u_i$. Similarly, time-time NN strategy relies on existence of columns $t'$ with $v_{t'} \approx v_t$. These strategies provide poor performance respectively when similar rows or similar columns are not available. Our estimate is doubly robust to this deficit in two ways: (1) As long as there exist either good row or good column neighbors, our estimate provides a consistent estimate. (2) Furthermore, if both good row and good column neighbors exist, it provides a (near-)quadratic improvement in the non-asymptotic error and admits a significantly narrower asymptotic confidence interval when compared to both unit-unit or time-time NN.

Chang Ge, Justine Zhang, Haofei Xu et al.

City council meetings are vital sites for civic participation where the public can speak directly to their local government. By addressing city officials and calling on them to take action, public commenters can potentially influence policy decisions spanning a broad range of concerns, from housing, to sustainability, to social justice. Yet studies of these meetings have often been limited by the availability of large-scale, geographically-diverse data. Relying on local governments' increasing use of YouTube and other technologies to archive their public meetings, we propose a framework that characterizes comments along two dimensions: the local concerns where concerns are situated (e.g., housing, election administration), and the societal concerns raised (e.g., functional democracy, anti-racism). Based on a large record of public comments we collect from 15 cities in Michigan, we produce data-driven taxonomies of the local concerns and societal concerns that these comments cover, and employ machine learning methods to scalably apply our taxonomies across the entire dataset. We then demonstrate how our framework allows us to examine the salient local concerns and societal concerns that arise in our data, as well as how these aspects interact.

Tianliang Xu, Ariel Hasell, Sabina Tomkins

Distrust of public serving institutions and anti-establishment views are on the rise (especially in the U.S.). As people turn to social media for information, it is imperative to understand whether and how social media environments may be contributing to distrust of institutions. In social media, content creators, influencers, and other opinion leaders often position themselves as having expertise and authority on a range of topics from health to politics, and in many cases devalue and dismiss institutional expertise to build a following and increase their own visibility. However, the extent to which this content appears and whether such content increases engagement is unclear. This study analyzes the prevalence of anti-establishment sentiment (AES) on the social media platform TikTok. Despite its popularity as a source of information, TikTok remains relatively understudied and may provide important insights into how people form attitudes towards institutions. We employ a computational approach to label TikTok posts as containing AES or not across topical domains where content creators tend to frame themselves as experts: finance and wellness. As a comparison, we also consider the topic of conspiracy theories, where AES is expected to be common. We find that AES is most prevalent in conspiracy theory content, and relatively rare in content related to the other two topics. However, we find that engagement patterns with such content varies by area, and that there may be platform incentives for users to post content that expresses anti-establishment sentiment.

Tianliang Xu, Eva Maxfield Brown, Dustin Dwyer et al.

Local governments around the world are making consequential decisions on behalf of their constituents, and these constituents are responding with requests, advice, and assessments of their officials at public meetings. So many small meetings cannot be covered by traditional newsrooms at scale. We propose PUBLICSPEAK, a probabilistic framework which can utilize meeting structure, domain knowledge, and linguistic information to discover public remarks in local government meetings. We then use our approach to inspect the issues raised by constituents in 7 cities across the United States. We evaluate our approach on a novel dataset of local government meetings and find that PUBLICSPEAK improves over state-of-the-art by 10% on average, and by up to 40%.

Raaz Dwivedi, Katherine Tian, Sabina Tomkins et al.

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference guarantees for the counterfactual mean at the smallest possible scale -- mean outcome under different treatments for each unit and each time -- with minimal assumptions on the adaptive treatment policy. Without any structural assumptions on the counterfactual means, this challenging task is infeasible due to more unknowns than observed data points. To make progress, we introduce a latent factor model over the counterfactual means that serves as a non-parametric generalization of the non-linear mixed effects model and the bilinear latent factor model considered in prior works. For estimation, we use a non-parametric method, namely a variant of nearest neighbors, and establish a non-asymptotic high probability error bound for the counterfactual mean for each unit and each time. Under regularity conditions, this bound leads to asymptotically valid confidence intervals for the counterfactual mean as the number of units and time points grows to $\infty$ together at suitable rates. We illustrate our theory via several simulations and a case study involving data from a mobile health clinical trial HeartSteps.

Marianne Menictas, Sabina Tomkins, Susan Murphy

Users can be supported to adopt healthy behaviors, such as regular physical activity, via relevant and timely suggestions on their mobile devices. Recently, reinforcement learning algorithms have been found to be effective for learning the optimal context under which to provide suggestions. However, these algorithms are not necessarily designed for the constraints posed by mobile health (mHealth) settings, that they be efficient, domain-informed and computationally affordable. We propose an algorithm for providing physical activity suggestions in mHealth settings. Using domain-science, we formulate a contextual bandit algorithm which makes use of a linear mixed effects model. We then introduce a procedure to efficiently perform hyper-parameter updating, using far less computational resources than competing approaches. Not only is our approach computationally efficient, it is also easily implemented with closed form matrix algebraic updates and we show improvements over state of the art approaches both in speed and accuracy of up to 99% and 56% respectively.

Sabina Tomkins, Peng Liao, Predrag Klasnja et al.

In mobile health (mHealth) smart devices deliver behavioral treatments repeatedly over time to a user with the goal of helping the user adopt and maintain healthy behaviors. Reinforcement learning appears ideal for learning how to optimally make these sequential treatment decisions. However, significant challenges must be overcome before reinforcement learning can be effectively deployed in a mobile healthcare setting. In this work we are concerned with the following challenges: 1) individuals who are in the same context can exhibit differential response to treatments 2) only a limited amount of data is available for learning on any one individual, and 3) non-stationary responses to treatment. To address these challenges we generalize Thompson-Sampling bandit algorithms to develop IntelligentPooling. IntelligentPooling learns personalized treatment policies thus addressing challenge one. To address the second challenge, IntelligentPooling updates each user's degree of personalization while making use of available data on other users to speed up learning. Lastly, IntelligentPooling allows responsivity to vary as a function of a user's time since beginning treatment, thus addressing challenge three. We show that IntelligentPooling achieves an average of 26% lower regret than state-of-the-art. We demonstrate the promise of this approach and its ability to learn from even a small group of users in a live clinical trial.

Marianne Menictas, Sabina Tomkins, Susan A Murphy

To effect behavior change a successful algorithm must make high-quality decisions in real-time. For example, a mobile health (mHealth) application designed to increase physical activity must make contextually relevant suggestions to motivate users. While machine learning offers solutions for certain stylized settings, such as when batch data can be processed offline, there is a dearth of approaches which can deliver high-quality solutions under the specific constraints of mHealth. We propose an algorithm which provides users with contextualized and personalized physical activity suggestions. This algorithm is able to overcome a challenge critical to mHealth that complex models be trained efficiently. We propose a tractable streamlined empirical Bayes procedure which fits linear mixed effects models in large-data settings. Our procedure takes advantage of sparsity introduced by hierarchical random effects to efficiently learn the posterior distribution of a linear mixed effects model. A key contribution of this work is that we provide explicit updates in order to learn both fixed effects, random effects and hyper-parameter values. We demonstrate the success of this approach in a mobile health (mHealth) reinforcement learning application, a domain in which fast computations are crucial for real time interventions. Not only is our approach computationally efficient, it is also easily implemented with closed form matrix algebraic updates and we show improvements over state of the art approaches both in speed and accuracy of up to 99% and 56% respectively.

Sabina Tomkins, Peng Liao, Predrag Klasnja et al.

In mobile health (mHealth), reinforcement learning algorithms that adapt to one's context without learning personalized policies might fail to distinguish between the needs of individuals. Yet the high amount of noise due to the in situ delivery of mHealth interventions can cripple the ability of an algorithm to learn when given access to only a single user's data, making personalization challenging. We present IntelligentPooling, which learns personalized policies via an adaptive, principled use of other users' data. We show that IntelligentPooling achieves an average of 26% lower regret than state-of-the-art across all generative models. Additionally, we inspect the behavior of this approach in a live clinical trial, demonstrating its ability to learn from even a small group of users.

Sabina Tomkins, Predrag Klasnja, Susan Murphy

In many mobile health interventions, treatments should only be delivered in a particular context, for example when a user is currently stressed, walking or sedentary. Even in an optimal context, concerns about user burden can restrict which treatments are sent. To diffuse the treatment delivery over times when a user is in a desired context, it is critical to predict the future number of times the context will occur. The focus of this paper is on whether personalization can improve predictions in these settings. Though the variance between individuals' behavioral patterns suggest that personalization should be useful, the amount of individual-level data limits its capabilities. Thus, we investigate several methods which pool data across users to overcome these deficiencies and find that pooling lowers the overall error rate relative to both personalized and batch approaches.